Tuesday, March 08, 2016

Hillary Clinton Currently Has A Commanding Delegate Lead

(This caricature of Hillary Clinton is by the inimitable DonkeyHotey.)

Here is the current delegate count in the Democratic race (by Bloomberg Politics):

PRIMARY/CAUCUS DELEGATES

Hillary Clinton...............672
Bernie Sanders...............477

difference...............195

ALL DELEGATES

Hillary Clinton...............1130
Bernie Sanders...............499

difference...............631

I don't expect Sanders (or his supporters) to throw in the towel, but with each passing primary/caucus, his chances of getting the nomination become more difficult. Right now, Clinton has 47.4% of the delegates she would need for the nomination. Sanders has 20.9% of the delegates he would need. And Clinton's lead in delegates could grow substantially by the end of this week.

Today, Democratic voters in Michigan and Mississippi will decide who gets their delegates in a primary. Michigan has 130 delegates up for grabs, and Mississippi has 36. Then the next Tuesday, five more states will go to the polls -- Florida (choosing 212 delegates), Illinois (156 delegates), Missouri (71 delegates), North Carolina (107 delegates), and Ohio (143 delegates).

That's 855 delegates to be selected this week -- 166 on Tuesday, and 689 on the following Tuesday. And it is very likely that the bulk of those delegates will go to Hillary Clinton.

NOTE -- Those states will all have more delegates at the convention (Michigan-147, Mississippi-41, Florida-246, Illinois-182, Missouri-84, North Carolina-121, and Ohio-160) -- but I have only included in this post, the number that will be decided in this week's Democratic primaries.

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And for your edification, here are the Republican delegate totals:

Donald Trump...............384
Ted Cruz...............300
Marco Rubio...............151
John Kasich...............37

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