Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Another Poll Highlights The GOP's Electoral Dilemma

There is little doubt that Donald Trump will have the most delegates when the GOP convention kicks off in Cleveland this summer, and that has a lot of Republicans officials worried -- worried enough to initiate a "stop Trump" movement. But as this poll shows, that could be just as bad for them as having Trump at the head of their ticket (or worse).

About 62% of base Republican voters say the person who has the most delegates should win the nomination -- and 54% say it would be unacceptable for Trump to have the most delegates and not get the nomination. And while some politicians are hoping for a "white knight" (someone not in the race) to grab the nomination away from Trump or Cruz, that option is liked even less by base voters. About 71% would find that unacceptable.

This illustrates the dilemma Republicans find themselves in. If they nominate Trump (who is very unpopular with the public), they would probably lose (and down-ballot Republicans could be hurt). But if they don't nominate him, they probably also would lose (because many might abandon the party) -- and again, down-ballot Republicans could suffer.

These charts are from a recent NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll -- done between April 10th and 14th of a random national sample of 319 GOP primary voters, with a margin of error of 5.6 points.

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