Saturday, April 23, 2016

Bernie Trails In Connecticut, Maryland, And Pennsylvania

Quinnipiac University Poll (April 12-18) 1037 likely voters

Emerson College Poll (April 10-11) 356 likely voters

Monmouth University Poll (April 18-20) 300 likely voters (5.7 point moe)

Public Policy Polling (April 15-17) 492 likely voters (4.4 point moe)

NBC 4 / Marist Poll (April 5-9) 775 likely voters (3.5 point moe)

Washington Post / Univ. of Maryland Poll (March 30-April 3) 539 likely voters (5.5 point moe)

Monmouth University Poll (April 17-19) 302 likely voters (5.6 point moe)

Franklin & Marshall Poll (April 11-18) 510 likely voters (5.3 point moe)

Fox News Poll (April 4-7) 805 likely voters (3.5 point moe)

Quinnipiac University Poll (March 30-April 4) 514 likely voters (4.3 point moe)

Harper Poll (April 2-3) 603 likely voters (4.0 point moe)

After the crushing defeat he suffered in the New York primary, Bernie Sanders chances of winning the Democratic nomination grew much slimmer. He would now have to win about 70% of the delegates in all of the remaining states to reach the magic number of delegates (2,383).

Five more states will go to the polls to vote next Tuesday (April 26th) -- Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. I'm not aware of any viable polls released for Delaware and Rhode Island, but the three states with the most delegates at stake have been polled -- and it doesn't look very good for Bernie. He not only won't get the required 70%, but will probably lose all three of those states.

Currently, Hillary Clinton has an average lead of 7.5 points in Connecticut, about 21.7 points in Maryland, and about 15.8 points in Pennsylvania. The Sanders campaign simply cannot afford to lose those three states, or even finish even with Clinton in them. That would just push Clinton closer to the nomination, and Sanders further from it.

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