Friday, April 01, 2016

New Democratic Polls For Wisconsin And New York

The chart above is from a new Public Policy Polling survey -- done on March 28th and 29th of a random sample of 720 likely Wisconsin Democratic voters, with a margin of error of 3.7 points.

It shows, like other polls, that Wisconsin (April 5th) is going to be very tight. It's looking like Bernie Sanders may win that state, but it won't help him much. He doesn't need more moral victories. He needs big wins that give him substantially more delegates than Clinton, and Wisconsin is unlikely to do that.

Adding to his problems is the New York Primary, which happens two weeks later (April 19th). As the chart shows below, he trails Clinton by 12 points in the Empire State. Clinton is likely to win a majority of delegates in New York, and remember, all she has to do is get about 34% of the remaining delegates (something she should be able to easily do).

Bernie has run a good race, but the end is getting near -- and a close win in Wisconsin won't change that.

The chart below is from a new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between March 22nd and 29th of a random sample of 693 likely New York Democratic voters, with a margin of error of 3.7 points.

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