Tuesday, May 10, 2016

This Poll Should Scare The Hell Out Of Republicans

The chart above reflects the results of a new Landmark / RosettaStone Poll released on May 5th. It queried 570 Georgia voters, and has a margin of error of 4.1 points.

Georgia, like other Southern states, is normally considered a bright red state. Most people would automatically put it in the Republican column in a presidential race. But this year could be different. If this poll is right, Georgia could be a toss-up -- available to either Trump or Clinton. The difference between the two is about 1 point (well within the margin of error of the poll) -- which means they are virtually tied right now.

Trump is favored by men, those 65 & older, and by Whites. Clinton is favored by women, those between 18 & 64, Blacks, other race/ethnicities, and Independents. It is almost always true that women will outnumber men in voting -- and if Blacks, Hispanics & others, and young people turn out on election day in large numbers, then Hillary Clinton could win Georgia.

If I was a Republican, this would scare the hell out of me. How many other normally red states could be this close. The Republicans are already at a disadvantage in the electoral college, and they can't afford to lose a single red state.

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