Monday, June 13, 2016

How Many Republicans Will Vote For Donald Trump ?

Yesterday I brought you a poll asking how many Sanders supporters would vote for Hillary Clinton. But the Democrats are not the only party struggling for party unity. The Republicans, by virtue of their choice of Donald Trump to be their presidential nominee, is also having some problems with unity -- and their problem may be worse than the one the Democrats have.

A good portion of the Republican Party is upset with their nominee. Like others, they see him as racist, bigoted, and a crude narcissist they simply cannot support. How many will wind up voting for him. Only about 50% of the general public thinks that most Republicans will vote for him (and the percentage of Democrats and Independents who think most will vote for Trump is even lower).

But most interesting to me is the opinion of Republicans. Only about 70% of Republicans think most of their fellow Republicans would vote for Trump. For a party that starts out with a demographic disadvantage, that could be disastrous if it is true.

The chart above was made from information in a recent YouGov Poll -- done between June 2nd and 5th of a random national sample of 2,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.2 points.

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