Monday, June 20, 2016

The Bottom Has Fallen Out Of Trump's Campaign




These charts are all from The Washington Post. They show that the Trump campaign is in real trouble. Currently, he is polling worse than any of the last four Republican presidential candidates at this point in their campaigns. He received a bump after becoming the presumptive nominee, but he has squandered that with his outrageous statements (especially over the Hispanic-heritage judge hearing his civil case, and his politicizing of the Orlando tragedy).

The second chart shows the campaign spending in swing states in June 2012 and June 2016. Note that both Obama and Romney spent in the swing states in June 2012, but in 2016 only Clinton is spending. Trump won the Republican primary without any ad spending, but that was when he was getting plenty of coverage from the media. He's still getting coverage, but now most of it is negative (and it's killing his campaign).

The third chart shows the staff of the presidential campaigns through April of this year. Clinton has a much larger staff, and they're working hard on her behalf. Trump has very few paid staff -- not nearly enough to get the job done. He needs money and people on the ground, and he seems to be counting on the Republican Party to provide both -- but many Republicans aren't at all sure they want to donate money, make phone calls, knock on doors, or get out the vote for Trump. They may vote for him, but that's not good enough. He needs an army of paid staff and volunteers to get people to the polls, and he just doesn't have that (and it's not at all sure that he can get that in time).

His campaign is imploding, and he doesn't seem to have a clue as to what to do about it.

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