Wednesday, August 17, 2016

The Race Has Settled With Clinton Having A Solid Lead

Now that the conventions have been over for a couple of weeks, the race for president seems to have settled down with Hillary Clinton having a significant lead over Donald Trump. That is not just the verdict of one poll, but of all the polls.

One of the newest polls in the YouGov Poll -- done between August 6th and 9th of a random national sample of 1,300 voters, with a margin of error of 3.9 points. It shows Hillary Clinton with a 6 point lead.

Perhaps the most important factor is the large lead Clinton has among women voters. She leads Trump by 12 points among women, while Trump has only a 3 point lead among men. That's a significant difference, since women have voted in larger numbers than men in past elections.

Clinton also leads among those under age 45. She has a 19 point lead among the 18-29 group and a 22 point lead among the 30-44 group. The 45-64 voters are evenly split between the two candidates. Only one age group (those 65 and over) prefer Trump (by a six point margin).

There's still about 11 weeks until the election, and things could always change -- but Trump needs to change a lot of these numbers if he is to win the presidency. Personally, I think the only thing that could cause him to win is complacency -- if the voters think Clinton has it in the bag and don't bother to go vote.

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