Friday, August 05, 2016

Trump Has Historically Low Numbers Among Hispanic Voters

Donald Trump continues to claim he will do well with Hispanics in the coming election. If he really believes this (which I doubt), then he is living in a dream world. The truth is that, as the New Latino Voice Poll shows, Trump is doing very poorly among Hispanic voters -- much worse than any Republican has done in recent elections.

This is important in Florida -- a state that Trump must carry to have any chance of winning the presidency. Hispanics make up 18% of Florida voters, and have a big impact on that state's elections. Normally, Republicans do a little better in Florida among Hispanics than they do nationally because a large segment of the Florida Hispanic vote is Cuban (and they traditionally vote for the GOP). But this year is different.

This year, Florida Hispanics are as anti-Trump as Hispanics nationwide. Only 12.9% of Florida Hispanics support Trump. That's much worse than the 39% that Romney got in 2012, or the 42% that McCain got in 2008.

And it looks just as bad nationally. In 2008, McCain got 31% of the national Hispanic vote, while Romney got 27% in 2012 -- and both of them lost. Trump is only getting 12.8%. That should worry Republicans, since the votes cast by Hispanics (as a percentage of the total votes) is almost sure to be higher than in any past election.

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