Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Trump Leads Clinton By Only 6 Points In New Texas Poll

These charts were made from a newly-released Public Policy Polling survey -- done between August 12th and 14th of a random sample of 944 likely Texas voters, and has a margin of error of 3.2 points.

The poll shows Donald Trump has a 6 point lead over Hillary Clinton in Texas. That may seem like a lot, but it's the smallest margin any Republican presidential candidate has had in the Lone Star State in a long time -- and 10% of Texas voters are still undecided.

Texas is still a solidly red state, and Trump will probably carry it in November -- but that's not a sure thing, like it has been in the past. Note the bottom chart, which shows the comparison of 2016 to the way the 2008 and 2012 elections came out in Texas. In 2008, the Republican candidate (John McCain) won by 11 points, and in 2012 the Republican candidate (Mitt Romney) won by 16 points.

Texans, like other Americans, aren't real sure that Trump is fit to be president (and currently has only 44% support). I may be crazy, but I think if young voters, Hispanic voters, Black voters, and women turn out in large numbers in November, Hillary Clinton has an outside chance of winning Texas. It certainly wouldn't hurt for her to make some trips to Texas.

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