Friday, September 16, 2016
Can Democrats Retake Control Of The House This Year ?
Most political pundits give the Democrats a pretty good chance of retaking control of the Senate in the coming election. The House is a different matter. Most, if not all, think the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives -- even if the GOP loses the presidency and the Senate.
The reason is the very effective gerrymandering the Republicans did in House districts after the 2010 census. That is a valid point, and I agree that it will be very difficult for the Democrats to retake control of the House. But I am not ready to say it's an impossible task.
It will take a good ground game and a large turnout, but I believe it could happen. One of the reasons I believe it could happen is illustrated in the charts above. Only 13% of voters believe Congress is doing a good job. A plurality of 46% say they have accomplished less than usual. About 45% blame the Republicans for that, while only 11% blame the Democrats. The Democrats have a 15 point higher favorability rating in Congress than the Republicans, and a 16 point lower unfavorable rating. And finally, the current generic congressional vote favors Democrats (44% to 38%).
It won't be easy, but I think we have about a 35% to 40% chance of doing it. What do you think? Am I being too optimistic?
The charts above were made from information in a new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between September 10th and 13th of a random national sample of 1,300 registered voters, and has a 3.9 point margin of error.