Saturday, September 24, 2016
Clinton Has 9-10 Point Lead In Texas' Largest County
Harris County, the county that contains Houston, is the Texas county with the largest population -- more than 16% of the population in the whole state. It matters what happens in Houston and the other large cities in the state, because that's where a majority of the population live. And if Houston is any indicator, then Texas might really be turning purple this year.
As the chart above shows, Hillary Clinton has a 10 point lead over Donald Trump among Harris county registered voters, and a 9 point lead with likely voters. President Obama carried Harris county in 2008 and 2012, but not by a margin even close to this. In 2008, Obama's margin over McCain was only 1.63 points (50.45% to 48.82%). In 2012, Obama's margin over Romney was even smaller -- a mere 0.08 points (49.39% to 49.31%). This huge margin for Clinton in Harris county could mean the race is much closer statewide than in the last few elections.
The chart above was made from the results in a new University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs Poll -- done between September 1st and 20th of a random sample of 550 Harris county registered voters, and has a margin of error of 4 points.