Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Debate Watchers Say Hillary Clinton Won The Debate

Donald Trump is going around after the debate saying he won, and that all the polls say he won. He has to be living in some alternate universe, because that simply is not true. The first poll released after the debate was the CNN Poll. That poll showed viewers thought Clinton won by 62% to 27%. However, CNN admitted that the poll had too many Democrats in it (41% of the 521 watchers).

But two more polls have now been released, and they are both weighted more scientifically. They are the Public Policy Polling survey (done of 1,002 debate watchers, with a 3.1 point margin of error), and the YouGov Poll (done of 1154 adults, 57% of which watched the debate, with a 3 point margin of error).

The top chart is the PPP survey. It shows that 51% of watchers think Clinton won, while 40% think Trump won. The second chart is all of the YouGov respondents. They had Clinton winning by 34% to 18%. The third chart is only those who watched the debate (by YouGov). It has Clinton winning by 57% to 30%.

The question now is -- Can Trump improve his performance in the final two debates? I'm not so sure he can. He doesn't seem to have the ability to control himself when challenged. He gets flustered, and resorts to being a bully.

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