Tuesday, September 20, 2016

New Florida Poll Shows The State Is A Toss-Up Now

This chart reflects the results of a new Florida survey. It is the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 10th and 14th of a random sample of 867 likely Florida voters, and has a margin of error of 3.3 points. It shows Hillary Clinton with an extremely slim 1 point lead over Donald Trump in Florida among all voters (well within the survey's margin of error). That means the state could go for either Clinton or Trump.

Clinton has a 10 point lead among women, while Trump has a 9 point lead among men. This would tend to favor Clinton, since women usually vote in larger numbers than men. But then you have the age groups. Clinton has a 25 point lead among young voters, while Trump has a 10 point lead among seniors. Seniors tend to vote in much larger numbers than young voters do.

Then you have the racial differences. Trump has a 21 point lead among White voters, while Clinton has a 78 point lead among Black voters and a 40 point lead among Hispanics.

Will enough Blacks and Hispanics turn out to offset the larger White vote? Will enough young voters turn out to negate Trump's advantage among seniors? Will men vote in large enough numbers to offset the Clinton's advantage among women? It seems obvious that turnout will be especially important in Florida.

This is a critical state for Trump. It is extremely difficult to see a path to victory for him if he loses Florida. On the other hand, Clinton has paths to 270 electoral votes without winning Florida. This will be an interesting state to watch on election night.

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