Wednesday, October 12, 2016
A Second National Poll Shows Clinton With Double-Digit Lead
This chart shows the results of the new Public Religion Research Institute / The Atlantic Poll. They questioned 1,086 registered voters (including 886 likely voters) between October 5th and 9th (with about half of the survey happening after the lewd tapes of Trump were released). The margin of error is 3.2 points for registered voters and 3.9 points for likely voters.
Like the NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll I posted yesterday, this new PRRI / Atlantic Poll has Hillary Clinton with a double-digit lead. She leads by 13 points among registered voters and by 11 points among likely voters.
The chart below shows the demographic breakdown of the PRRI / Atlantic Poll. Trump has an 11 point lead among men, but that is easily eclipsed by Clinton's 33 point lead among women (and traditionally, women vote in larger numbers than men). Trump has a small 4 point lead among Whites, while Clinton has a whopping 55 point lead among Non-whites.
But perhaps most important is that Independents are now swinging over to Clinton. A little over a week ago, this poll had Independents favoring Trump by an 8 point margin. They now prefer Clinton by an 11 point margin.
The survey also questioned the presidential preference of religious groups. Evangelicals still prefer Trump by 49 points, while mainline protestants are evenly split 42% to 42%. Catholics favor Clinton by 20 points, and non-religious voters also prefer Clinton (by a huge 50 point margin).