Thursday, October 13, 2016

GOP's Political War Could Help Democrats Win The House

The charts above are from the Gallup Poll -- done between October 5th and 9th of a random national sample of 1,017 adults, with a margin of error of 4 points. It shows the job approval of the Republican controlled Congress is still extremely low -- about 18%.

I have stated before that I think such a low job approval rating could result in the Republicans losing seats in the House -- after all, they are the ones controlling the agenda in the House because of their huge majority. But now there is a new element that has entered the congressional races -- the political war between Donald Trump and many elected Republican officials.

Trump's racism, misogyny, and xenophobia have made him a very distasteful candidate for a majority of Americans -- and that is scaring the hell out of many of the GOP's elected officials. They are afraid they will be tarred with Trump's unsavory brush, and many are trying to distance themselves from him. USA Today has identified 87 Republican elected officials who have refused to endorse Trump -- about a quarter of the elected officials of the party.

These officials, especially the House Reps and the Senators, are in a bad situation. If they support Trump, they could incur the wrath of the general public. And if they don't, they could incur the wrath of Trump's loyal teabaggers. Trump has declared war on those who refuse to support him, and it is likely that his supporters could easily try to punish those officials. They won't vote Democratic, but they could just not vote for down-ballot Republicans -- and that could be enough for their Democratic opponents to win.

It is less than a month until the election (and many are already voting early), and the Republicans are in the middle of a political civil war -- a war that could produce benefits for the Democrats. It will probably put the Senate in Democratic hands, and amazingly, might even do the same for the House of Representatives.

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