This chart reflects the results of the recent Harvard University Institute of Politics Poll -- done between October 7th and 17th of a random national sample of 2,150 likely voters between 18 and 29, with a margin of error of 3.11 points.
It shows that millennial voters prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 28 point margin (49% to 21%). About 11% say they are still undecided, while 19% prefer Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.
I think the numbers of third-party voters, here and in most polls, are highly exaggerated. Several arguments for this. First, polling numbers in the past seem always to exaggerate the numbers, 3rd Party candidates frequently poll near 5% and then get less than 1% when the actual polling takes place.
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Secondly, one poll recently replaced Johnson's name with the name of the prohibition party candidate, and Stein's with the name of the Worker's World Party (a Maoist group that usually gets a few thousand votes, as does the Prohibitionist) candidate. The numbers for the Prohibitionist dropped from Johnson's numbers, but he still had 4% voting for him, and the WWP got just what Stein was getting.
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Finally, as the invaluable and 'most honest man on the Internet,' Ed Brayton has pointed out, Johnson has been acting stranger and more off the wall. A quote from the above:
When reporter Paul Lewis asked Johnson about his tax policy, specifically his intention to abolish income tax altogether, Johnson at first demurred: “Look, I don’t want to argue.” But when Lewis challenged him again, Johnson snapped: “Look, I came out for the legalization of marijuana!”
“What’s that got to do with your tax policy?” Lewis asked.
“It’s leadership.”
(The quote originally comes from an interview with The Guardian, through an article in Mther Jones, btw.) [And will SOMEONE explain why blogger still does not accept 'blockquote' as legitimate HTML]]
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As a 'back-end baby boomer' (born in 1946 -- two days younger than Trump, in fact -- I don't believe the youngsters of the millennial movement have suffered brain damage to the extent that they will give that much to the somewhat dizzy ex-Governor whose own running mate has dissed him.
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(And I am actually sorry about this. I ad hopes that the Republicans were disappearing down the Federalist Party hole, becoming equally 'priest-ridden' and conspiracy-driven (the 'Illuminati' conspiracy actually goes back to -- and was debunked during -- the 1800 Adams=Jefferson race). It could have disappeared down that particular rabbit hole, and been replaced by a new Whig Party -- which was weakened y never being able to come around to any important position on the issues of the day -- and eventually, as with the Republicans, a new main party could have coalesced around the Libertarians -- who, like the original Republicans were a mixture of forward-looking and just plain crazy.
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Maybe a party that had picked Weld for the top slot might have done that, but Johnson isn't the person for the job.