Thursday, August 29, 2019

3 New Polls Show Biden Still In The Lead Among Democrats


This chart reflects the results of the new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between August 21st and 26th of a national sample of 648 Democrats and Leaners, with a margin of error of 4.6 points.


This chart reflects the results of a new USA Today / Suffolk University Poll -- done between August 20th and 25th of a national sample of 424 registered voters likely to vote in a Democratic primary or caucus, with a margin of error of 4.76 points.


This chart reflects the results of the new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between August 24th and 27th of a national sample of 570 Democrats and Leaners. No margin of error for this sample was given.

A couple of days ago, I provided you with a Monmouth University Poll that showed Warren (20%), Sanders (20%), and Biden (19%) in a virtual tie for first place in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. I cautioned my readers at that time that I suspected the poll might not be accurate since it had such a small sample of national Democrats and Leaners (less than 300).

Now it looks like my caution was accurate. The poll looks like an outlier. Three new polls have come out with larger sample, and all three show Biden maintains his lead, and Warren in second place. Biden leads Warren by 13 points in the Quinnipiac poll, by 18 points in the Suffolk poll, and by 4 points in the YouGov poll.

Warren leads Sanders by 4 points in Quinnipiac, by 2 points in Suffolk, and by 6 points in YouGov. Harris finished fourth in all three polls, but was unable to register double-digits in any of them.

NOTE -- I only included candidates that scored at least 2 % in the charts above.

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