Rasmussen Poll, in a survey of 500 likely voters on 5/16/2006, reports that Kinky Friedman is the only candidate for Texas Governor that has gained support since their April poll. In April, Kinky had 15%, but he climbed to 20% in the May poll.
Both Bell and Perry lost support, while Strayhorn [is that the name she's using now?] stayed the same. Chris Bell had 17% in April, but scored only 14% in the May poll. Rick Perry dropped from 40% in April to 38% in May. "Grandma" Strayhorn's support remained at 19% for both months.
This is how the race stands now [with April results in brackets]:
Rick Perry..........38% [40%]
Kinky Friedman..........20% [15%]
Carole Strayhorn..........19% [19%]
Chris Bell..........14% [17%]
Perhaps the most telling statistic is the "unknown to voters" catagory. Among Perry's challengers, Bell is the most unknown to voters. These figures are:
Chris Bell..........26%
Kinky Friedman..........14%
Carole Strayhorn..........11%
The only solace that Bell can take in these numbers, is that the poll was conducted before the state convention. Candidates for Governor usually get a bounce in the polls coming out of their convention. However, I don't think that will happen this year. Quite frankly, Bell didn't get a whole lot of coverage in the mainstream media during the convention. Unless he can turn this around, he stands a real good chance of finishing fourth in this race. People do not vote for candidates that they do not know.
Perry and Strayhorn are both known very well by the voters. Strayhorn polled about 31% when she first entered the race. It is now down to 19%. As the campaign progresses, I expect her numbers to fall even further. She really has very little to offer that is different than the republican agenda. I also don't see Perry's numbers climbing in the future, and they very well might fall a few more points. But Perry is definitely the favorite in this race.
Kinky started out with a solid base of people who have liked and respected him for many years, and with the help of people like Texas legend, Willie Nelson, he is adding to that base and building support. Many people are angry at both parties. This works in Kinky's favor as he is an independent, and is not tied to the failed policies of either party. Kinky is also not a pre-packaged candidate in an expensive suit with a styled hairdo and poll-approved talking points. Kinky is just one of us common folk. He could be your next-door neighbor. Hell, he even looks like a Texan. Party regulars may make fun of Kinky for this, but I believe it really appeals to the average voter.
Texas Democrats must make a hard choice in the coming election. They can vote for Chris Bell and thereby help Perry win the election, or they can vote for the only candidate who stands a chance of beating Perry, Kinky Friedman. If they persist in voting their conscience [Bell] and allow Perry to win, then I don't want to hear any more whining about how Naderites lost the presidential election in 2000 and 2004. Democrats now have their own Nader - he is Chris Bell.
I don't understand your logic. I don't see how Kinky has a chance in hell of winning while Bell needs to capture the Democratic base of voters plus a little bit more to win.
ReplyDeleteMuse -
ReplyDeleteYou have assumed that Bell will hold on to the Democratic base. I'm not at all sure that he will.
KIA -
Make fun if you want. The votes will be counted in November.
Damn. Can't even spell my own name now!
ReplyDeleteWho the hell is Chris Bell?
ReplyDeleteHey, maybe that could be his campaign slogan? Then, you know, he could tell us.
Really, I half-ass read the papers, and I don't remember his name.
Now Kinky and Strayhorn and Perry? Those folks I have heard of.
Do you really think Kinky could win?
It's like when people voted for Perot, just a futile gesture. But people like the hat and cigar.
Damn blogger! It's not "text" it's texT.
ReplyDeleteWill I have to sign as tex_t?
Hell, perhaps I will be just text.
The latest Rasmussen poll done on May 17th lacks creditability for several reasons:
ReplyDeleteThe sample number was only 500 people, with a margin of error of 4.5 %, meaning the actual results on their standard could still have Chris Bell in second place.
Rasmussen claims Bell’s name recognition is 74%, which is more than double what it was last month. So how exactly was Chris Bell able to introduce himself to more than 10 million people during the last session without any significant statewide TV, radio or other medium? This figure provided by Rasmussen is wrong, and falsely suggests that people know about Chris Bell, but aren’t supporting him. Other numbers strongly disagree with this.
Rasmussen excluded undecided voters from the poll. If you answered “undecided,” then you were skipped and not included as one of the 500 respondents. Other polls done on the Texas state election have as much as 65 % of the electorate as don’t know/ undecided.
The biggest gainer in this poll was Kinky Friedman at 20 %. This is twice as much as Kinky garnered in any other of the half dozen polls done in this race. Furthermore, this is the lowest total Bell has ever shown in any poll. All of the bipartisan polls done in the last three months have Chris in second place.
According to the people who answered Rasmussen's poll, "Texan voters are more likely than voters elsewhere to approve the job that former Governor George W. Bush is doing as President; 54% approve, 36% Strongly Approve." This overstates George Bush’s actual support in Texas, further indicating that the participants in the poll were leaning right more than average.
Rasmussen is a republican pollster that has consistently favored republican candidates in its polls.
Here is the poll:
Incumbent Dominates Four-Way Race
June 12, 2006
In the unusual four-way campaign for Texas Governor, Republican
Governor Rick Perry continues to enjoy a substantial lead, though he
has lost a couple points since our last survey of the race.
Perry now earns 38% support from Texas voters. Democrat Chris Bell
collects 14%, a drop from 17% in April, technically putting him in
fourth place.
Carole Keeton Strayhorn (I)-the state Comptroller asking to be listed
as Carole Keeton "Grandma" Strayhorn on the November ballot-is holding
steady at 19%. Early in the campaign, she had attracted 31% support, but our
most recent survey found that the early enthusiasm for her campaign had
dissipated.
Kinky Friedman (I), the wisecracking musician, author, and official
Colorful Character in the race, now wins 20% support, a five-point
gain. Although his given name is Richard, this candidate will appear on the
ballot as "Kinky."
Technically, Friedman and Strayhorn have yet to learn whether they are
officially qualified for the ballot, but both report having turned in more
than enough petition signatures to do so.
Perry is viewed favorably by 56% of likely voters, Bell by 39%,
Strayhorn by 46%, Friedman by 37%. Friedman is viewed Very Unfavorably
by more voters, 26%, than any other candidate. Bell is still an
unknown to 26% of voters, while only 14% are still agnostic about
Friedman, 11% about Strayhorn.
Texan voters are more likely than voters elsewhere to approve the job
that former Governor George W. Bush is doing as President; 54%
approve, 36% Strongly Approve.
In a state whose voters tend to trust Republicans more than Democrats
on major issues-with the single exception, in the current poll, of
energy policy-Bush earns highest approval on the economy, with 49%
saying his performance is Excellent or Good, and on national security.
oh, and the last, most important point:
The new bipartisan Zogby poll, that came out last week
Here are the numbers. Everyone knows Rick and Carole, but 2/3 wont vote for him and almost no one will vote for her. What about Chris Bell? Right now, only 4 out of 10 Texans know him, yet 2 out of 10 will support him. So what will happen when Chris makes his case en masse? You do the math:
Perry: 37.7% (+1.4 since March/down 0.6% since January)
Bell: 19.7% (-1/+1.8)
Kinky: 17.5% (+0.8/+3.1)
Strayhorn: 14.1% (-4.9/-6.4)