During the last legislative session,there were those who wanted to move the Texas primary date up to February 5th. The thinking was that this would give Texas a strong voice in picking the 2008 presidential candidates. But they could never get enough support and the effort died when the legislative session ended.
Conventional wisdom (including mine) was that once again the race to pick a presidential candidate would be over by the time Texas voted. After all, by February 5th, around 40% of the delegates will have been chosen. Traditionally, by the time this many delegates are chosen there is a clear frontrunner who will go on to grab the nomination.
I can't even remember the last time Texas mattered in the presidential nominating process. For Republicans, Texas was able to give Ronald Reagan a big boost in 1976. But since I have never voted in the Republican primary, that means little to me. For us progressives, it has been a lot longer. We have become used to supporting candidates chosen by other states.
But Richard Dunham of the Houston Chronicle thinks that could change this year. He believes that Texas might accidently become a player in presidential politics this year -- maybe even for both parties.
Could this possibly be true? Maybe. While the major media outlets would like us to think there are clear leaders in the race, it is not really true. Around half of the voters in both parties have yet to finally decide on who they will support -- especially in the early voting states. Of those who have picked a candidate, around a third of them say they could still change their minds.
That means there really is no leader in either party -- yet. There is a possibility that after February 5th, the delegates could be pretty evenly divided between about four candidates in each party. If that happens, then Texas and Ohio (who both have early March primaries and lots of delegates) would become heavyweight players in the presidential contests.
Of course, this is a situation Texans hope for in every primary before our hopes are dashed by the early voters. But there is an extraordinary fluidity in this election. That gives Texas its best chance in many years to actually make a difference in who the nominees will be.
I doubt it will actually happen, but I hope I'm wrong. It's kind of exciting to think my vote might really matter.
Not to brag or anything, but don't forget who raised this possibiliity first (on November 26th, no less).
ReplyDeleteWould it be too much trouble to have them all within a week's period? It is a Federal election, why not just have all the states caucus in the same time period?
ReplyDeleteI know, states have power to determine the manner in which their people vote, including the timing, but really? Do I really care about what some corn farmer in Iowa thinks? Not really. Their just selling ethanol.