Texas Looks Like A Toss-Up Now

A few weeks ago, it looked liked Texas would be an easy victory for Hillary Clinton. She was at least 20 points ahead in a state that both candidates had pretty much ignored. But then Barack Obama reeled off 8 wins in a row, most of them by significant margins, and began to cut into some demographics that most pundits thought belonged to Clinton.

Now it looks like the race has really tightened up in Texas. A new CNN/Opinion Research poll shows the race is virtually deadlocked. The poll shows Clinton at 50% and Obama at 48%. That is well within the 4.5% margin of error and makes the race a toss-up with two weeks to go.

Why is this happening? One reason is the momentum that Obama has shown. He now looks like the real deal, and many more people are starting to believe he could actually win -- not only the party nomination, but also in the general election in November.

Clinton could fix the momentum problem by winning in Wisconsin today, and at least one poll shows her in the lead there. However several other polls show Obama leading. It's probably going to be a tighter primary than the one's held last week though, and with the way the polls have been wrong this year, it should be interesting.

The other thing is the ethnic vote in Texas. It has generally been considered that Obama has the African-American vote and Clinton has the Hispanic vote. I do think Obama will get 80-90% of the black vote, but I don't think the Hispanic vote is nearly that sure a thing for Clinton. She will get a majority of the Hispanic vote, but I see Obama as making inroads, especially among younger Hispanics.

I tend to believe the CNN poll. I think it is a dead heat right now in Texas. But things have changed a lot in Texas in the last two weeks, and there are still two weeks to go. Who knows how it will stand on March 4th?