Civil War Is Possible In Honduras

A couple of weeks ago, the right-wing elements in the Honduran government teamed with the military and ousted their leftist president, Manuel Zelaya, in an illegal coup. The military seized President Zelaya (pictured) the day before the country was to have a constitutional referendum, and flew him to Costa Rica. Then they swore in Roberto Micheletti as a caretaker president.

Most countries in the Americas, including the United States disapproved of the illegal coup. It smacks of a past time in Central and South America when the rich kept power through a series of military coups, and most people had hoped those times were gone forever. The Organization of American States (OAS) has even threatened to kick Honduras out of the organization if they don't return Zelaya to power.

Both sides have agreed to negotiations guided by Nobel Peace Prize winner Oscar Arias, one of the most respected leaders in the Americas. The first round of talks ended without an agreement, and a second round of talks is scheduled for this coming Saturday. But it's starting to look like the talks might fail.

Micheletti has said he would step down if he was assured that Zelaya would not be re-instated, but Arias said that was unacceptable. Arias says, "The restoration of constitutional order must involve the reinstatement of President Manuel Zelaya." Zelaya's supporters agreed. They are demanding that the "illegal regime surrender peacefully."

Meanwhile, Zelaya's foreign minister, Patricia Rodas, says Zelaya is returning to Honduras to set up an alternative "shadow" government. She refused to say where Zelaya currently is, or where and when he will enter the country. She did say, "Our president will be in Honduras at some point and some moment. He is already on his way. God protect him and the people of the Americas who are with him. The establishment and installation of an alternative seat of government will be to direct what I will call the final battle."

That sounds to me like Honduras may be headed for an armed insurrection, or even a full-blown civil war. I hope I'm wrong and Arias is able to pull off a miracle, but things don't look good right now.