A few months ago many media pundits were predicting the Republicans would do very well in the upcoming November elections. Some even predicted that they might have a chance of taking back at least one house of the United States Congress. Even as late as April of this year an Associated Press/GfK Poll showed that people preferred that Republicans win control of Congress by a 44% to 41% margin.
But that seems to be changing in favor of the Democrats. The latest Associated Press/GfK Poll that was taken June 9th through 12th of 1044 adults shows that most people now would prefer the Democrats retain control of Congress (sampling error is 4.3). This is the second month in a row that shows the Democrats in the lead now and that lead seems to be getting larger. Here is how it now stands:
Democrats...............46%
Republicans...............39%
The Democrats have now surpassed the margin of error, which the Republicans were unable to do in April. People are still unhappy with how Congress is doing its job. Only 24% believe Congress is doing a good job. But it looks like the people are more unhappy with the Republicans than with the Democrats.
38% believe Congressional Democrats are doing a good job
32% believe Congressional Republicans are doing a good job
The Republicans are pinning their hopes of winning in November on the fact that people are unhappy with Congress. The fly in that ointment seems to be the fact that people are unhappy with both parties, and even more disappointed in Republicans than Democrats.
I think the media is basing a lot of their projections on the noise being created by the teabaggers (the squeaky wheel getting the grease). What they are overlooking is that the teabaggers are not a grassroots independent movement, but simply a right-wing extremist element within the Republican Party (and only comprise 16% or less of the population at large).
I expect the Republicans will probably pick up a few seats in November since the party out-of-power traditionally does in off-year elections. But I don't think they will take either house in Congress, and I don't expect the teabaggers to have much of an effect on the election.
If the Democrats can energize their voters and get them to the polls, they should do OK in the coming election.
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