After the disastrous presidency of George W. Bush and their complete trouncing in the 2008 election, the Republican Party has been in a state of disarray. While the Congressional Republicans are still voting the policies of the Bush administration, no one will admit publicly that they still have the same economic and foreign policies that trashed the U.S. economy and has mired the country in a couple of unending and unnecessary wars.
Congressional Republicans have said they are putting together their policies and will soon reveal them, but we are now a couple of weeks past Labor Day (the unofficial start of serious campaigning) and they still have announced no coherent and/or unified policies to campaign on. One big reason for this is their lack of leadership.
Normally the last presidential candidate of a party, even a losing candidate, is the leader of the party -- at least until someone steps forward and assumes that leadership role. But McCain's complete embarrassment in the 2008 election, coupled with his numerous flip-flops in 2010 to try and keep his own state party's senate nomination, has left him with little respect. He is one of the last people Republicans would look to for leadership.
However, no one has stepped forward to replace him and this has left the party without a leader. This void of leadership is a primary reason why the party has a dearth of any new ideas or policies. And it is also why their angry wing, the teabaggers, have been able to step in and push the party to the far right fringe -- a move that will hurt the party in the future (because the U.S. is a country that likes moderation and punishes either party that gets too far to the right or left).
The Republican Party's lack of leadership is highlighted by a recent survey done by the Pew Research Center. They asked 1,001 adults between September 9th and 12th this question -- Who do you think of as the leader of the Republican Party? Here are the answers (both for the general public [GP] and for Republicans [Rep]):
Don't know [GP]...............60%
Don't know [Rep]...............54%
Nobody is [GP]...............15%
Nobody is [Rep]...............13%
John McCain [GP]...............5%
John McCain [Rep]...............6%
Sarah Palin [GP]...............5%
Sarah Palin [Rep]...............5%
John Boehner [GP]...............4%
John Boehner [Rep]...............5%
Newt Gingrich [GP]...............2%
Newt Gingrich [Rep]...............4%
Mitt Romney [GP]...............1%
Mitt Romney [Rep]...............4%
Mitch McConnell [GP]...............1%
Mitch McConnell [Rep]...............1%
Glenn Beck [GP]...............1%
Glenn Beck [Rep]...............1%
Michael Steele [GP]...............1%
Michael Steele [Rep]...............1%
Mike Huckabee [GP]...............0%
Mike Huckabee [Rep]...............0%
Rush Limbaugh [GP]...............1%
Rush Limbaugh [Rep]...............0%
Other person [GP]...............4%
Other person [Rep]...............5%
Those are some rather startling figures. About 75% of the general public either doesn't know who the Republican leader is or doesn't believe they have a leader. And the figures don't improve much when only Republicans are queried. About two-thirds of Republicans (67%) either don't know who their leader is or don't believe they have a leader. And no person is recognized as their leader by more than 6% of Republicans.
Normally a party with such a void in leadership (or new ideas) would be looking at another sound trouncing in an upcoming election. Why then are many pundits saying the Republicans may gain a significant number of Congressional seats in the November election? That can be answered by one word -- recession.
Americans are not happy with the current state of the economy and they are unhappy with everyone in Congress (in both parties). Since the Democrats currently have a majority in both Houses of Congress, if anger over the economy shows itself at the polls the Democrats could bear the brunt of that anger (although that is yet to be seen).
But even if the Republicans do gain a significant number of seats in Congress, they could be hurt by that gain in future elections. The continuing leadership void in the party has allowed the angry teabagger wing of the party to push the party much farther to the right. They are pushing moderates out of power and out of the party, making it likely that when the party finally finds a leader it will be someone on the far-right fringe of American politics (and a person sure to frighten the great American middle -- which decides most elections).
This recession is not going to last forever (even though it looks that way right now and could be extended by returning Republicans to power in the upcoming election). If the Republicans regain enough power to block job creation efforts and extend the recession, they will pay dearly for it at the polls in 2012. If they don't regain power and continue their march to the right, they would also pay dearly for that in the 2012 election.
While they don't seem to realize it right now, the Republicans are on a collision course with electoral disaster. They need to find a real leader -- a moderate who can bring them back toward the middle. Right now it doesn't look like that's going to happen anytime soon, and that's good news for those of us on the left.
The Republicans are not going to find a moderate leader, at least not in the near future. While the GOP will probably gain control of the House in 2010, they will still essentially leaderless. In 2012 they will nominate someone who is a far right conservative (and I will be sharing my thoughts on who Monday), and there will be a repeat of 1964. The only way for moderates to return to the GOP is for the GOP to find out how far out of the mainstream they really are.
ReplyDeleteI'd be interested in the results of a similar poll regarding the Democratic Party. Conventional wisdom would dictate that the sitting President would be the leader of his party, but is that really true?
ReplyDeleteAccording to Politico, "Democratic candidates are spending three times more advertising against the health reform law than they are in support of it."
(Read more here.)
And TPM reports that 31 House Democrats are urging Speaker Pelosi to extend the Bush tax cuts to everyone - including those making over $250,000 a year.
(Details here.)
Maybe the Democratic leadership needs to moderate their positions a little too.
That's a pretty weak argument, CT. Why should Democrats spend money supporting a program that is already law? And the fact that a small number of House Democrats disagree with the president on one issue doesn't mean they don't recognize him as the party's leader.
ReplyDeleteThere is no doubt in anyone's mind (except maybe yours) as to who currently leads the Democratic Party -- it is President Barack Obama. And I think huge majorities would say that in any poll (of the general public or Democrats).