Friday, October 08, 2010

Unemployment Back To Double Digits

I would love to be able to say the recession is over and good times are ahead for everyone.   That seems to be what the economics pundits would like for us to believe.   But that would really be a lie.   The truth is that those economic pundits have a very narrow definition of what a recession is -- a definition that ignores the reality of the economic disaster that still plagues this country.

They want to define a recession in terms of either a rise or fall in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).   If the GDP rises for two or three months then they declare the recession is over.   It doesn't matter that may well have been on the backs of workers (by laying off workers or shipping jobs out of the country).   This rather academic definition may be fine for a classroom or a think tank (or the greedmongers of Wall Street), but it doesn't take into account the pain being felt by ordinary citizens on Main Street.

The result is that we have an economic "recovery" that is only felt by the rich.   A much better  definer of whether the recession is still with us would be to look at the unemployment figures.   After all, how can anyone say a real recovery is taking place when 12 to 15 million people have lost their jobs and those jobs are not yet being replaced.   The recession will not be truly over until we see several months of serious job creation.

So far, that has not happened.   There had seemed to be a tiny improvement in the unemployment situation as the government figures showed the unemployment rate had dropped to single digits (even though this rate shows only those actively seeking jobs through unemployment offices, and ignores those who have given up or those working part-time because they can't find full-time work).  

But it looks like even that is no longer true.   The Gallup organization does an unemployment survey (which has generally reflected federal government numbers).   Sadly, that survey shows that at the end of September the unemployment numbers had climbed back into double digit territory.   At the end of August the unemployment rate stood at 9.3% (up from 8.9% at the end of July).   The end of September unemployment number is 10.1%.

In plain English, unemployment is now getting worse instead of better.   The underemployment rate (unemployed plus part-timers who want full-time work) is also going up.   It has risen from the year-long low of 18.3% at the end of July to 18.8% at the end of September.   That means nearly one of every five American workers cannot find full-time work (and the figure gets even worse if those no longer counted by the federal government is included).

I believe if unemployment was figured the same way it was in the 1930's, Americans would be shocked to see how similar current unemployment is to the unemployment of the Great Depression.   Serious action is required from the federal government, and so far, both political parties are failing in their efforts to remedy the situation.

The Democrats have made some feeble efforts at job creation, but it has been far too little and far too slow in its application.   The Republicans have been even worse.   They refuse to part with their failed "trickle-down" economics.   They have blocked efforts to stimulate job creation, and also blocked efforts to stop the outsourcing of American jobs to foreign countries.   Their only "solution" is to give the rich more and bigger tax cuts (even though they are currently paying less in taxes than they did during the Reagan administration).

The recession may be over for the Wall Street tycoons, but it is still ravaging the denizens of Main Street America.

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