Poll Shows Obama In Good Shape For 2012

There are those who think the 2010 election shows that President Obama's chances of being re-elected in 2012 are in jeopardy. But if history is to be believed, the president is actually in very good shape for the election. A new Pew Research Center poll (of 1,525 adults from March 8th through March 14) shows that the president is positioned as well as George Bush was in 2003, and much better than Bill Clinton was in 1995.

The president's chances are also helped by a better than 50% job approval rating and an even higher favorability rating, a slightly favorable rating for the Democratic Party, a falling favorability for the Republican Party, and a wife who remains very popular in spite of right-wing efforts to defame her. Here are the numbers from the poll:

BILL CLINTON (1995)
re-elect Clinton...............29%
elect a Republican...............33%
elect Independent...............20%
don't know...............18%

GEORGE BUSH (2003)
re-elect Bush...............48%
elect a Democrat...............35%
don't know...............18%

BARACK OBAMA (2011)
re-elect Obama...............47%
elect a Republican...............37%
don't know...............16%

OBAMA JOB PERFORMANCE
approve...............51%
disapprove...............39%

BARACK OBAMA FAVORABILITY
favorable...............58%
unfavorable...............39%

DEMOCRATIC PARTY FAVORABILITY
favorable...............48%
unfavorable...............45%

REPUBLICAN PARTY FAVORABILITY
favorable...............42%
unfavorable...............51%

MICHELLE OBAMA FAVORABILITY
favorable...............69%
unfavorable...............21%

When it is broken down demographically, Obama leads in all age groups, leads among both men and women, and leads among most income groups. The Republican candidate is favored by only White people and rich people. Here are the demographic numbers (where O=Obama,  R=Republican and DK=don't know):

MEN...............O-42%, R-39%, DK-18%
WOMEN...............O-51%, R-35%, DK-14%

WHITE...............O-36%, R-47%, DK-17%
BLACK...............O-92%, R-1%, DK-8%
HISPANIC...............O-66%, R-16%, DK-18%

18-29...............O-53%, R-34%, DK-13%
30-49...............O-45%, R-39%, DK-17%
50-64...............O-47%, R-35%, DK-18%
over 65...............O-45%, R-39%, DK-18%

under $30,000...............O-54%, R-29%, DK-17%
$30k-$74,999...............O-46%, R-39%, DK-15%
over $75,000................O-41%, R-46%, DK-14%

INDEPENDENTS...............O-40%, R-34%, 26%
DEMOCRATS...............O-84%, R-7%, DK-10%
REPUBLICANS...............O-6%, R-84%, DK-10%

Meanwhile the Republicans still don't show any candidate approaching a favorite status. The leaders are Mitt Romney (21%), Mike Huckabee (20%), Sarah Palin (13%), Newt Gingrich (11%), and Ron Paul (8%). No other candidate garnered more than 3%. Now with Michele Bachmann and Rand Paul making it known they are considering a run for the nomination, the picture should get even muddier.