Half Of GOP Unhappy With Candidate Choices

Although the field of possible Republican presidential candidates is one of the largest in many years, it may also be one of the weakest. At least that's what a lot of Republican voters seem to think. About a month ago I posted about this, when an ABC News/Washington Post poll showed that 40% of GOP voters were not satisfied with the candidate choices they currently have and only 43% were satisfied (compared to 31% unsatisfied and 65% satisfied with their choices in April of 2007).

And things have not changed in the last month. In fact, the dissatisfaction may even have gotten a little worse. Another poll, the AP/GfK Poll, taken May 5th through May 9th shows that nearly half of the Republicans are now unhappy with the current candidates (and very few rate themselves as "strongly satisfied"). Here are the numbers:

ARE YOU MORE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH CURRENT CHOICES?

strongly satisfied...............10%
somewhat satisfied...............30%
not satisfied or dissatisfied...............8%
somewhat dissatisfied...............33%
strongly dissatisfied...............12%

Total Satisfied...............41%
Total Dissatisfied...............45%

Clearly, there is still room and time for a dark horse to enter the race -- someone like Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, Rudy Giuliani, Rick Perry, or Jeb Bush. But so far all of them are saying they don't want to run (and there is really nothing to suggest they would appeal to voters any more than the current crop of candidates does).

It is still early, but time is running out for a new candidate to jump into the race. The second half of 2011 is the time when a candidate needs to gather as big a campaign war chest as possible and start some serious organizing (especially in the early caucus and primary states). And most of this needs to be completed before the new year rolls around.

Here are the general population approval rates for the candidates:

MITCH DANIELS
favorable...............25%
unfavorable...............19%
don't know...............55%

NEWT GINGRICH
favorable...............35%
unfavorable...............47%
don't know...............18%

MIKE HUCKABEE
favorable...............47%
unfavorable...............34%
don't know...............18%

JON HUNTSMAN
favorable...............18%
unfavorable...............15%
don't know...............66%

SARAH PALIN
favorable...............36%
unfavorable...............59%
don't know...............5%

TIM PAWLENTY
favorable...............24%
unfavorable...............26%
don't know...............50%

MITT ROMNEY
favorable...............45%
unfavorable...............35%
don't know...............20%

RICK SANTORUM
favorable...............24%
unfavorable...............25%
don't know...............50%

MICHELE BACHMANN
favorable...............30%
unfavorable...............29%
don't know...............41%

DONALD TRUMP
favorable...............29%
unfavorable...............65%
don't know...............6%

RON PAUL
favorable...............36%
unfavorable...............35%
don't know...............29%

These numbers might make one think that there is little chance of Sarah Palin or Donald Trump getting the Republican nomination (since their negatives are much higher than those of the other candidates), but that may not be true. We must remember that most state parties are now controlled by the teabaggers and the convention probably will be controlled by them also -- and both of them are still pretty popular with these teabaggers.

I think Mitt Romney may be in as much trouble as any candidate since the teabaggers are now in control of the party. He has done his best to move far to the right to appeal to this group (even chastising himself for passing a health care program while governor of Massachusetts), but it just doesn't seem to be working. If the moderates still controlled the party, Romney would already be the clear leader, but they don't. And his health care program and his mormonism just don't appeal to the teabaggers.

I don't think the teabaggers will have much impact on the 2012 general election, but they will have a huge impact on who the Republicans choose to run in that general election -- and that should make Democrats everywhere very happy.

NOTE -- Mike Huckabee told viewers on his Fox News show last night that he would NOT be a candidate for the Republican nomination. This is a bit surprising since with Romney's problems I considered him to be the frontrunner. This makes it even more likely that the Republicans, thanks to the influence of the teabaggers, will nominate a fringe far-right candidate as their nominee in the next general election. Huckabee's decision is very good news for Democrats (since he did have some appeal with Independents).