The race for Republican presidential nominee has been a real mess so far. It was expected a few months ago that by now the race would have been narrowed down to two or three major candidates and a few dark horses. The major candidates were expected to be Romney and Huckabee (and possibly Palin). But Huckabee has dropped out of the race and Romney has been unable to separate himself from the field (while Palin's negatives are higher than ever).
Frankly, there is no real favorite yet and a majority of Republicans are unhappy with the choice of candidates they have so far (about twice as many as were unhappy about their choices at this time in 2007). And it's starting to look like the Republicans might actually nominate one of the teabagger fringe candidates (like Palin, Bachmann, or Cain) -- something most people thought was impossible just a few months ago. This possibility has been heightened by the demonstrated strength of the teabagger element within the party -- something that scares the hell out of establishment Republicans, who think that could have a disastrous down-ballot effect.
The fact is that no one has a clue who the Republicans will wind up choosing as their nominee, but the process has already been an entertaining one and will probably get even better in the future (with even more candidates thinking of tossing their hats in the ring).
This all brings up an interesting question. Since the Republicans really have no clear favorite, who do the Democrats think would make the strongest Republican candidate? The National Journal decided to try and find out by conducting one of their Political Insider Polls. They asked 135 Democratic political operatives, strategists, campaign consultants, and lobbyists who they thought the strongest GOP candidate would be (and you can go here to see who these people are). Here are the results of the informal poll of Democrats:
STRONGEST REPUBLICAN NOMINEE
Mitt Romney...............27%
Jon Huntsman...............25%
Tim Pawlenty...............20%
Chris Christie...............11%
Rick Perry...............5%
Other...............12%
I can understand why Romney, Huntsman, and Pawlenty topped the list. They are probably the most appealing to the Independents in the middle-of-the-road. Although Romney has moved far to the right in his attempt to make himself more acceptable to fringe right-wingers, most Democrats think he would quickly return to a more moderate stance once nominated. Huntsman has never left his more moderate positions, and nobody really knows where Pawlenty stands on much since he has changed so much (such as coming out in favor of an insurance mandate before taking a stand against one).
I'm sure the GOP voters don't care who the Democrats think would be the strongest candidate -- and that's good because it might let them nominate one of the fringe nut-jobs. But I still thought the informal poll was interesting. And who knows, maybe the Republicans will vote against Romney just because Democrats think he would be a strong candidate. They showed in 2008 (with the nominating of candidates like Angle and O'Donnell) that they are not above cutting off their nose to spite their face.
Whatever happens, it should be a good show. As Terrell Owens said, make sure you've got plenty of popcorn.
Whatever happens, it should be a good show.
ReplyDeleteAgreed.
Twenty years ago at this time, three of the leading candidates for the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination were Mario Cuomo, Bill Bradley, and Dick Gebhardt. No one was even talking about the relatively unknown former Arkansas governor as a serious contender.
In politics, anything can happen (and usually does!).