Romney Drops To Second Behind Perry

For months now Mitt Romney has been in first place among the horde of Republicans wanting the GOP presidential nomination for the 2012 election. But it has not been a comfortable lead. He has stayed around the low to mid-twenties percentage wise, and has been unable to put any real distance between himself and the rest of the pack -- with various candidates like Paul and Bachmann (and non-declared candidates Palin and Giuliani) nipping at his heels. Even Donald Trump showed some strength against Romney for a while.

Romney has tried hard to move to the far-right with his political views in an attempt to appeal to the teabagger base of the Republican Party, but at least so far the base is just not buying it -- probably because of his mormonism and passage of RomneyCare when he was governor of Massachusetts. The teabaggers, who now control the Republican Party in most states, simply don't accept him as being one of their own.

This has made many, including myself, believe that although Romney is probably the most electable of the Republicans, it is unlikely that he can win the Republican primary. It is still early and things could change, but it is looking more and more like the Republicans will nominate a far right-wing candidate to oppose Obama in 2012 -- someone like Bachmann, Palin, Perry, Paul, or even an outsider like Cain (who shows remarkable strength for his low name recognition).

This is born out by the almost instant success shown by the Perry candidacy. Although he has been a candidate for only a very short period of time, he seems to have shot to the top of the pack. He may turn out to be a "flash-in-the-pan" like Trump once the voters find out more about him (and discover the fraudulent nature of the Texas "miracle"), but for now a couple of respected polls show he has a significant lead over Romney.

Public Policy Polling is the first of these. They have released a new poll (conducted with 663 Republican voters between August 18th and August 21st with a margin of error of 3.8). Here is what that poll shows:

Rick Perry...............27%
Mitt Romney...............17%
Sarah Palin...............13%
Michele Bachmann...............10%
Herman Cain...............7%
Newt Gingrich...............7%
Ron Paul...............6%
Rick Santorum...............3%
Jon Huntsman...............2%

Sarah Palin has still not declared her candidacy, and if she is taken out of the mix, Perry's lead grows even larger. Perry would have 33%, Romney would have 20%, and Michele Bachmann would have 16%. The rest would stay basically the same.

The second survey that shows Perry with a commanding lead is the Gallup Poll. This survey was conducted between August 17th and August 21st with a random sample of 1,040 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (and has a 4 point margin of error). Here are the results of that poll:

Rick Perry...............25%
Mitt Romney...............14%
Sarah Palin...............11%
Ron Paul...............11%
Rudy Giuliani...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............7%
Herman Cain...............4%
Newt Gingrich...............3%
Rick Santorum...............3%
Jon Huntsman...............1%

Without the non-declared candidacies of Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani, Rick Perry has 29%, Mitt Romney has 17%, Ron Paul has 13%, and Michele Bachmann has 10%. The others are still basically "also-rans".

I have heard some discussions saying it would be to Romney's advantage to have Palin enter the race, because she would split votes away from Perry and Bachmann. While it is true that she would be mining the same teabagger base as Perry and Bachmann, I don't see that helping Romney. It would just make it more likely that the candidates would arrive at the convention without anyone having a majority of delegates -- and in a teabagger-controlled convention, which is likely, Romney is not going to emerge the winner.