Romney learned his lesson from his 2008 failure. As he entered the race for the Republican nomination this year he has done his best to re-invent himself as a teabagging right-winger. He subdued his religion, and provided many mea culpas over his rather moderate term as governor of Massachusetts (especially regarding the health care plan he signed during his term). But most teabagger Republicans are just not buying his conversion. They still viewed him as having all the personas in the picture above.
Even though the establishment Republicans supported him because they viewed him as their best hope to beat President Obama, the far right-wing teabaggers have climbed on other bandwagons -- for candidates like Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, and Herman Cain. It became very obvious that he might not do as well in the early Iowa caucuses as he did in 2008. It was looking like he would probably lose those caucuses to Bachmann (who was both a teabagger and from a neighboring state) and possibly even Ron Paul.
So the Romney campaign decided to skip the Iowa caucuses and bet the farm on a strong showing in New Hampshire. He decided that a second or third place finish in Iowa, bolstered by a big win in New Hampshire, could put him in a good position to carry his campaign to other states. He could play-off not winning Iowa by claiming he didn't really compete there.
It was a bit risky, but it could have worked. But things have changed. Texas Governor Rick Perry has jumped into the race, and poll after poll has shown he has snatched the race lead away from Romney. All of a sudden it's looking like Romney might not get that second or third place finish in Iowa. If he ignores the state he could finish as low as fifth place (which is possible since he finished fifth in the Iowa straw poll, which he also ignored).
Finishing that low in Iowa certainly wouldn't help him in New Hampshire, and if he failed to win big in New Hampshire after being an "also-ran" in Iowa his campaign could be over pretty quickly -- especially since he is also polling poorly in South Carolina which would quickly follow New Hampshire. In just the last couple of weeks Romney has gone from being the leader to possibly being in trouble. The "skip Iowa" strategy is no longer viable.
It's starting to look like the Romney campaign is now running a little scared (and he should be). They are changing their strategy in a couple of ways. Up until now Romney has not really attacked his Republican opponents, preferring to look "presidential" by remaining above the fray. But it is now being reported that he is preparing to attack Rick Perry. He is going to try and scare voters with Perry's views on Social Security, Medicare, and immigration.
It is also being reported that Romney is no longer considering skipping Iowa. Bill Kristol reported on Fox News that he has talked with people in the Romney campaign and that they are now going to make a push in Iowa.
The simple fact is that Romney had to change his strategy. He can't act like a leader now because he is no longer the leader. Now he must scratch and claw like the other candidates. It's a matter of survival.
This is probably a terrible attitude on my part, but as it begins to look increasingly likely that Obama will not serve a second term, I find myself hoping that Romney can pull off the primaries.
ReplyDeleteHe speaks in complete sentences and seems earnest and educated.
If it's gotta be a Republican for 4 years, better Mitt than Rick.
I'm not sure he can pull it off, though. He's too moderate for the GOP and as you point out here, he DOES seem a little... contructed by focus-groups...