Iowa Republicans Pick The Criminal As Their Favorite

 

Iowa: Clinton/Sanders Split Dem Vote - Rubio Surprises GOP

(Image above is by DonkeyHotey.)

The polls had said the race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders was tight in Iowa -- and that turned out to be an understatement. They finished in a virtual dead heat, and it looks like each will claim roughly half of Iowa's Democratic delegates.

IOWA DEMOCRATIC RESULT (99% reporting)
Hillary Clinton................50%
Bernie Sanders...............50%
Martin O'Malley...............0%

Now, it's on to New Hampshire (where Sanders has a significant lead, Nevada (which could be close) and South Carolina (where Clinton has a significant lead). That will set us up for Super Tuesday, which could propel one of the candidates into a significant lead in delegates.

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The big stories of the night for the Republican race was Cruz defeating Trump, and a remarkable third place finish for Marco Rubio (only 1 point behind Trump). It looks like this could be a three-man race instead of a two-man race -- especially if Rubio can use this to climb into second place (or a very close third place) in New Hampshire.

IOWA REPUBLICAN RESULT (99% reporting)
Ted Cruz...............28%
Donald Trump...............24%
Marco Rubio...............23%
Ben Carson...............9%
Rand Paul...............5%
Jeb Bush...............3%
John Kasich...............2%
Carly Fiorina...............2%
Mike Huckabee...............2%
Chris Christie...............2%
Rick Santorum...............1%

Note that no Republican could even reach 30% support. This could be a long slog for the GOP to determine a nominee.

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NOTE -- Both the Democrats and Republicans have one less candidate after the Iowa caucuses -- as Martin O'Malley and Mike Huckabee both dropped out after doing very poorly in Iowa.

QUESTION -- Did skipping the last Republican debate hurt Trump in Iowa?

Clinton Gets The Endorsement Of The Des Moines Register

We're only a week away from the first presidential contest of this campaign season -- the Iowa caucuses. And Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton (photo at left from hillaryclinton.com) has received an important endorsement in that state. She was endorsed as the best choice for Iowa Democrats by the state's largest newspaper -- the Des Moines Register.

Endorsements don't carry the weight they used to these days. Political pundit Nate Silver (the nation's leading expert on polls) estimates that endorsement would not affect more than 3% of the caucus-attendees, and maybe even less.

But if the Democratic race in Iowa is as close as some believe it is, then a bump of even 1% or 2% could be critical in the outcome of the caucuses.And that's what the latest poll shows. It is the CBS News / YouGov Battleground Poll -- done between January 18th and 21st of a random sample of 490 Iowa Democrats. No margin of error was given. That poll showed Clinton and Sanders within 1 point of each other.

Here is what the editorial board of the Des Moines Register had to say:

If there’s one thing Democrats and Republicans agree on this year, it’s the fact that the next president will face enormous challenges.

Domestically, this president must work with Congress in confronting the issues of immigration, health care, increased threats to national security, the disappearing middle class, the growing deficit, Social Security solvency, gun control, renewable energy, sentencing reform and more.

On the world stage, this president will have to work with foreign leaders in dealing with ISIS and other terrorists, climate change, the containment of nuclear threats posed in North Korea and Iran, the Russian incursions in Ukraine and foreign trade.

The presidency is not an entry-level position. Whoever is sworn into office next January must demonstrate not only a deep understanding of the issues facing America, but also possess the diplomatic skills that enable presidents to forge alliances to get things done.

By that measure, Democrats have one outstanding candidate deserving of their support: Hillary Clinton. No other candidate can match the depth or breadth of her knowledge and experience.

As first lady, she worked tirelessly on health care reform and, with bipartisan support, created the Children’s Health Insurance Program that provides coverage for 8 million children.

As a senator, she reached across party lines and joined forces with conservatives, including Sen. Lindsey Graham and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, to fight for job creation and universal health care.

As secretary of state, she helped secure international sanctions against Iran and redefined her job by expanding America’s diplomatic agenda to include poverty, women’s rights, the environment and other issues.

She is not a perfect candidate, as evidenced the way she has handled the furor over her private email server. In our endorsement of her 2008 campaign for president, we wrote that “when she makes a mistake, she should just say so.” That appears to be a lesson she has yet to fully embrace.

Her changing stance on gay marriage, immigration and other issues has invited accusations that she is guided less by personal conviction than by political calculations. She refutes that, and argues persuasively that a willingness to change one’s thinking on specific issues, while remaining true to what she calls “the same values and principles,” is a virtue, one lacking in most politicians.

Over the course of two meetings, Clinton spent more than three hours with the editorial board, answering questions in a direct and forthright manner. She exhibited an impressive command of the issues, though we’d have liked to hear more from her on the debt and the future of Social Security. She was somewhat prickly and defensive when discussing her emails, but overall she was gracious, engaging and personable.

Her chief opponent for the nomination, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, has proven to be an honorable and formidable campaigner, and it’s very likely that without him in the race, candidates in both parties wouldn’t be discussing America’s growing inequality in wealth and income.

Sanders has tapped into the public’s anger and frustration with Washington, without demonizing government and resorting to the cheap demagoguery favored by Donald Trump and others. He has shown himself to be a man of courage and principle who has the ability to rally others to his cause.

But Sanders admits that virtually all of his plans for reform have no chance of being approved by a Congress that bears any resemblance to the current crop of federal lawmakers. This is why, he says, voters can’t simply elect him president, but must instead spark a “political revolution.”

Easier said than done. Congress has the largest Republican majority since the 71st Congress of 1929-31.

A successful Sanders presidency would hinge on his ability to remake Washington in his own image. It’s almost inconceivable that such a transformation could take place, even with Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress.

As for Martin O’Malley, the data-driven, wonkish former Maryland governor who has gained little traction in the campaign so far, he seems better suited to a Cabinet-level job in a Clinton White House.

In the final analysis, Iowa Democrats will have to choose between the lofty idealism of Bernie Sanders and the down-to-earth pragmatism of Hillary Clinton. For some, this will be a choice of whether to vote with their hearts or their heads.

Clinton has demonstrated that she is a thoughtful, hardworking public servant who has earned the respect of leaders at home and abroad. She stands ready to take on the most demanding job in the world.

Sec. Vilsack Explains Why He Supports Hillary Clinton

Secretary of Agriculture, and former governor of Iowa, Tom Vilsack (pictured) supports Hillary Clinton for president. He penned the following editorial on August 25th to tell us why he supports Clinton:

On Feb. 1, 2016 I intend to proudly caucus for Hillary Clinton — plain and simple. Hillary Clinton is not new to the fight for middle class families. Throughout her public life she has consistently fought to expand and strengthen the middle class. I have no doubt she will continue that fight as president. 

Expanding and strengthening the middle class starts with quality jobs. Too often the discussion of good jobs fails to include the unique challenges faced by rural Americans. Hillary Clinton understands that some of the deepest and most pronounced poverty exists in rural areas of the country. Her strong support for the Renewable Fuel Standard and bio-based manufacturing as important parts of a revitalized rural economy makes clear she will work hard to promote meaningful economic opportunity throughout the country. 

Hillary knows the economy of the future depends on a well-educated and trained workforce, and she understands the cost of education — from preschool to college and beyond — increasingly strains family budgets with unprecedented debt. That’s why she’s laid out a specific, workable plan to address these strains and make a good education available to all our children.

However, a secure footing requires more than a good paying job and access to education. It means a foundation that cannot be undone by injury or illness. Hillary will preserve those protections gained under the Affordable Care Act instead of putting insurance companies in the driver’s seat, and will look for ways to expand access to affordable health insurance coverage for all Americans and continue to bend the cost curve of health care. 

Every Iowan knows good ideas aren’t enough. We recognize the most successful presidents are those who can both lead and govern, while navigating the toughest job on earth. 

In other words: Leadership inspires. Governance delivers. 

As President, Hillary Clinton will both inspire and deliver results. I know because I have worked with her and called her a friend for nearly two decades.

She leads by example. Her courage in China as First Lady when she declared “women’s rights are human rights” continues to inspire people all over the world to demand equality and freedom. As a twice-elected Senator, she worked with farmers to improve their prosperity in rural New York. And as Secretary of State, she helped to establish a program that delivers food assistance to over 12.5 million hungry children in some of the poorest countries in the world. This just scratches the surface of her career of inspiring and delivering for people around the country and across the globe.

On a personal note, Hillary Clinton is one of the most loyal people I know and that is rare in politics. My relationship with Hillary goes back a long way. Hillary and Tom Bell, my brother-in-law, became friends in 1972 when they worked together as staff members to the Congressional Watergate Hearings — long before she was a household name. When I was elected governor of Iowa in 1998, I met with President Bill Clinton in the Oval Office. In that private meeting, he gave me some very good advice. He encouraged me to stay true and loyal to the ideas I ran on and to the people who had faith in me to govern well. Hillary Clinton is one of those people. 

My election that year was a surprise to many — but not Hillary. Despite the fact that I was way behind in the polls, she encouraged people she knew from all over the country to pitch in when I needed help, especially in the last weeks of the campaign. Without her support I may not have won. 

Why did she do it? Loyalty. 

Many years before I met her and before she was known to Iowans, my brother-in-law told me how much he’d liked and respected Hillary Clinton when they worked together.

Over the past 15 years, I’ve come to like and respect her, too.

That is why I support her.

Hillary Clinton has the right policies to strengthen and expand the middle class, is battle tested, and has the experience and relationships to lead and govern well. For all of those reasons as well as our friendship, I will caucus for Hillary Clinton on Feb. 1, 2016.

New Iowa Poll Has Some Surprises On The GOP Side

The charts above represent the feelings of Iowa GOP caucus voters. The top chart is the current picture, and the bottom one is what those voters thought last October (just four months ago). One thing that is very apparent is the volatility of the Republican race for president -- at least at this very early stage. The two charts show some rather stark differences.

Another thing that is clear is that Jeb Bush is not a favorite of Iowa Republicans. Although he gained 4 points since October (going from 4% to 8%), there are four other Republicans that Iowa voters prefer over him (Carson, Huckabee, Paul, and Walker) -- and a fifth place finish in Iowa would certainly not be a great way to start a presidential campaign.

But perhaps the most significant thing about these polls is the rather remarkable movement of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. He has moved from only 4% support in October to 15% currently -- and is now the leader among all the candidates in Iowa. That 15% is not a prohibitive lead by any means, but it does show he may be a more significant player in the 2016 campaign than many have given him credit for.

That poll also looked at the preferences of Democratic caucus voters (and those results are shown in the chart below). There really hasn't been much movement among Democrats. Clinton had a prohibitive lead in October, and she is still maintaining that huge lead -- while Warren finishes a distant second and Biden third.

These charts all represent numbers found in a new Des Moines Register Poll -- done between January 26th and 29th. The survey questioned 402 registered Republicans saying they will attend their caucus, and 401 registered Democrats saying they will attend their caucus. The margin of error for both parties is 4.9 points.

Early Presidential Preferences In Iowa

A year and a half from now the next presidential contest will kick into high gear, as the Iowa caucuses get underway. Those caucuses are important in deciding who will be the nominee of each party. While the winner in Iowa won't necessarily be the party's nominee, it will certainly show which candidates don't have any chance of getting the nomination. That's why I found this Public Policy Polling survey (taken between May 15th and 19th of 914 Iowa voters, with a 3.2 point margin of error) interesting. The survey contained 356 Democrats (with a 5.2 point margin of error, and 303 Republicans (with a 5.6 point margin of error). The rest were Independents.

As you can see, the Iowa Republicans prefer their candidate to be more extreme than some other states -- with Huckabee and Cruz leading the field (over slightly more moderate candidates like Bush and Christie). No candidate has a commanding lead, but this does show it's going to be hard for the party to nominate a candidate moderate enough to appeal to a majority of Americans.

The Democratic preference was no surprise. As in other states, Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead. The only way anyone else can be nominated, in my opinion, is for Hillary to decide she won't run (and I don't think that'll happen).

The survey also questioned all respondents (Republicans, Democrats, and Independents) on who they would vote for in a general election -- matching Hillary Clinton against the top GOP candidates. And right now, Hillary would win against any of them (see chart below).

Another Candidate Bites The Dust

A few months ago there were 11 Republicans in the race for the party's nomination for the presidency -- Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, Buddy Roemer, Gary Johnson, Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty, and Jon Huntsman. Today there are only 7 candidates remaining. Only one state has voted so far, but four of those candidates are out (and nobody knows why Roemer is still in the race, since he is virtually ignored by both the polls and the Republicans).

Pawlenty was the first to go. After being thoroughly embarrassed in the Iowa straw poll several months ago and being unable to raise enough funds to keep going, he dropped out. Then came Herman Cain. He was riding high at the top of many polls until voters learned that he couldn't keep his pants zipped when around a woman. After several women came forward to elaborate on his tendency to sexually harass and assault the women he worked with, he realized the only way to stop the unending parade of women to the media was to end his candidacy -- and he did that.

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson was the third to go. For months he tried to get treated with a little respect, but none was forthcoming. He was not invited to participate in most of the debates and a lot of polling companies didn't even list him as an option when surveying Republican voters. Johnson finally read the handwriting on the wall and realized he had no chance to get the Republican nomination. He dropped out, and now he is seeking the nomination of the Libertarian Party.

Yesterday, Michele Bachmann announced she is also suspending her campaign -- making her the fourth candidate to drop out. Having been born and raised in Iowa (and currently living in a neighboring state), Iowa was her best opportunity to revive her flailing campaign. Polls taken before the caucuses show her with only single-digit support, but she assured her supporters that god would perform a miracle for her in the caucuses (she god had told her to run for the nomination). That miracle didn't happen, and she only received a humiliating 5% of the Iowa caucus vote.

Her pitiful turnout in Iowa, combined with her lack of campaign funds, made it obvious that the end had come for her campaign. She told reporters, "I have decided to stand aside", and then she urged Republicans to "stand united behind the person our party chooses to be the standard bearer".

Now the race goes to New Hampshire and then South Carolina. Jon Huntsman must do well in New Hampshire or he will be the next to go. The same goes for Rick Perry in South Carolina. Perry could not afford another 10% fifth-place finish in that state.

Some Thoughts On Iowa Results

The Iowa caucuses are now over, with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney finishing in a virtual tie. A little more than 100,000 Iowa Republicans attended the caucuses, roughly the same number than came out in 2008. If anyone thought (or hoped) that Iowa would produce a clear winner, they have to be disappointed. As expected, as the candidates leave Iowa there is still a very muddled picture of who will eventually win the nomination.

The biggest winner of the night was obviously Rick Santorum. After languishing in the 3-6% range for the last few months, he is clearly the newest anti-Romney flavor-of-the-month. With his racist, misogynistic, and homophobic views it's hard to picture him winning the Republican nomination, but it would be great for Democrats if he could. He would make McCain look like he had been a strong candidate (which he certainly wasn't) in a general election. It'll be interesting to see if he can retain the number one anti-Romney candidate status after other states get to vote.

The pundits are saying it was a good night for Mitt Romney also. I don't see it that way. It just showed that he still can't make any inroads into the teabagger base of the Republican Party. He may have finished in a tie for first place, but all that showed is his weak position. About 75% of Iowa Republicans voted against Mitt. If that trend continues, he will not be the Republican nominee.

Ron Paul made a credible showing, finishing in a very close third place. But this is probably the best showing he will have, with the possible exception of Virginia where he and Romney are the only candidates on the ballot. I expect Paul is in it for the long haul, and will probably wind up with 10-15% of the delegates. He won't win the nomination, but with that many delegates he could determine who the eventual winner will be.

Newt Gingrich finished in fourth place, about 12 points behind the leaders. That's not as good as he was hoping for, but it's probably good enough to keep him in the race for a while. His Iowa finish makes it very important that he finish strong in South Carolina -- a Southern state where he could be expected to do well. Another fourth place finish there could be devastating for his campaign.

Rick Perry only got about 10% of the Iowa vote and finished a very poor finish. He's still got some money, but like Gingrich, he needs to do much better in South Carolina or he'll be heading back to Texas.

Tonight may well have been the end of the Bachmann campaign. She finished in sixth place with only about 5% of the total vote. That's pathetic considering she was born in Iowa and currently lives in a neighboring state. Continuing her campaign after this shattering defeat would just be a waste of time and money.

Jon Huntsman brought up the rear with less than 1% of the vote, but he did no campaigning at all in Iowa. He has put all his eggs in the New Hampshire basket, and must do very well there or end his campaign.

Here are the vote totals as I write this post (just a few minutes before midnight). There 99.5% of the precincts reporting and the totals show:

Rick Santorum...............29,908 (24.6%)
Mitt Romney...............29,874 (24.5%)
Ron Paul...............26,097 (21.4%)
Newt Gingrich...............16,161 (13.3%)
Rick Perry...............12,536 (10.3%)
Michele Bachmann...............6,056 (5%)
Jon Huntsman...............742 (0.6%)
No preference...............132 (0.1%)
Other...............118 (0.1%)
Herman Cain...............58 (0%)

It's Caucus Time In Iowa !

The waiting is over. The primary/caucus season has finally arrived, and it will start with tonight's Iowa caucuses. Until now we only had to polls to give us a clue as to what will happen in the GOP nominating process, but tonight we'll be able to see what the voters want (at least in one state). And that's a good thing, because I don't think anyone has a real idea of what will happen in the Iowa caucuses.

A friend is having a contest over at her blog, Juanita Jean's, where she's asking people to predict the order of finish and percentages of the top four candidates in Iowa. I predicted the following finish:
Ron Paul…..23%
Mitt Romney…..22%
Rick Santorum…..19%
Rick Perry…..13%

I'm sure I'll probably be proven wrong tonight because the Republican race in Iowa is still very fluid and unpredictable, and any prediction now is just a wild guess. I think a significant number of voters won't make up their minds until they get to their particular caucus. Will the Iowa caucuses show us the eventual winner of the Republican nomination? Probably not. This is just the start of a long process, and it's very likely that 5 or 6 of the candidates could leave Iowa with delegates.

Just to whet your appetite for tonight's caucuses, I provide you the results of the three latest Iowa polls:

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING SURVEY
(December 26-27)
Ron Paul...............20%
Mitt Romney...............19%
Rick Santorum...............18%
Newt Gingrich...............14%
Rick Perry...............10%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............4%
Buddy Roemer...............2%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL
(December 29 - January 1)
Mitt Romney...............22%
Ron Paul...............17%
Rick Santorum...............16%
Newt Gingrich...............15%
Rick Perry...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............4%
Buddy Roemer...............1%
Other...............1%
Undecided...............7%

INSIDER ADVANTAGE/MAJORITY OPINION RESEARCH POLL
(January 1)
Mitt Romney...............22.7%
Ron Paul...............22.4%
Rick Santorum...............18.0%
Newt Gingrich...............16.1%
Rick Perry...............9.6%
Michele Bachmann...............5.8%
Jon Huntsman...............1.8%
Someone else...............1.3%
No opinion...............2.3%

Des Moines Register Releases Its Poll

For the last few elections, the most accurate of the polls was the one done by the Des Moines Register. Last night the paper released its official poll for the GOP Iowa caucuses. Romney came out in first place, but the paper said both Paul and Santorum were positioned to give him a good battle. Here are the official numbers for the poll:

Mitt Romney...............24%
Ron Paul...............22%
Rick Santorum...............15%
Newt Gingrich...............12%
Rick Perry...............11%
Michele Bachmann...............7%

The poll was conducted from December 27th through December 30th. While the poll over the four days shows Santorum in third place, the last two days of the poll shows he is surging. The 302 people polled in the last two days actually had Santorum in second place, ahead of Paul.

Is Santorum The New "Teabagger Hope" ?

It's only three more days until the primary season is kicked off with the Iowa caucuses, and the polls are now coming fast and furious trying to predict what will happen in those caucuses. Those polls are, even in the best of times, only an educated guess as to what the voters will do when it comes time to vote. But this GOP race is so fluid (with over 40% of voters saying they could still change their minds), that we should probably take the word "educated" out of the equation and just call them a "guess".

There are a couple of new polls out, and both of them show Mitt Romney back in the lead in Iowa. This has some pundits predicting a Romney win in Iowa (and ready to anoint him as the eventual nominee). But note that Romney is not in the lead because he has increased his percentage of the vote. He is still only scoring in the low twenties in support, about the same as he's been doing for months now. This means he is still not getting any significant support from the teabagger/evangelicals, who make up the bulk of the Republican Party base.

If Romney wins in Iowa, and he could do that, it will not be because he is the popular choice of most Republicans. It will be because the teabagger/evangelical vote is split among several of the other candidates. I hear many of the pundits saying this is just what Romney wants, and gives him the advantage -- but for me, the math just doesn't work out. Let's assume that Romney is able to win a bunch of states with about 30% of the vote (which is about the best he could do without teabagger/evangelical support). That means 70% of the delegates are going to other candidates.

Now some of those candidates will fall along the way and drop out of the race (I doubt that Bachmann gets much farther than the first two or three states). Will Romney get any of their delegates? Probably not. The teabagger delegates will move to another of the ultra right-wing candidates -- because the teabaggers simply don't trust Romney. He is a newcomer to their point-of-view, and they expect he will go back to his "liberal" views once he gets the nomination.

Four Days To Go And Iowa Is Still A Very Fluid Situation

There are only four more days until the state of Iowa holds its political caucuses. There is no doubt that the Democrats will easily give the president all of the state's delegates. But on the Republican side, there is nothing but doubt as to the outcome of next Tuesday's caucuses. The situation seems to change daily, and about 43% of Republican voters say they still might change their minds about who to support (and it's looking like some won't finally make up their mind until they actually arrive at the caucus).

I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen next Tuesday. The situation is as fluid and unpredictable as in any year I can remember. Romney seems to think he's gaining the upper hand, and is now planning to stay in Iowa for a victory party Tuesday night (before leaving for New Hampshire after a press conference on Wednesday morning). If he does win, it will be because several other candidates are splitting the teabagger/evangelical vote (a group that Romney still has been unable to effectively appeal to).

I still give Ron Paul as good a chance of winning as anyone, if for no other reason than he has the best organizational structure of any of the candidates (and he's even importing hundreds of young people to encourage his people to get to the caucuses). His supporters are also the most sure about who they are supporting.

But there really could be at least six candidates that come out of Iowa with some delegates. Both Perry and Bachmann seem to be improving their support somewhat (at the expense of Gingrich, who has fallen out of the lead), and even the mostly cellar-dwelling Santorum now seems to be somewhat surging (and is in double-digits for the first time). About the only candidate who stands no chance at all in Iowa is Jon Huntsman (who has done almost no campaigning there and is pinning his hopes on a good showing in New Hampshire).

There are three new polls out on the GOP race in Iowa. Here they are:

INSIDER ADVANTAGE POLL
(December 28)
Ron Paul...............17.3%
Mitt Romney...............17.2%
Newt Gingrich...............16.7%
Rick Santorum...............13.4%
Michele Bachmann...............11.8%
Rick Perry...............10.5%
Jon Huntsman...............2.8%
Someone else...............3.0%
No Opinion...............7.3%

AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP POLL
(December 26-28)
Mitt Romney...............22%
Newt Gingrich...............17%
Ron Paul...............16%
Rick Santorum...............11%
Rick Perry...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............6%
Buddy Roemer...............1%
Other...............1%
Undecided...............9%

CNN/TIME/ORC POLL
(December 21-27)
Mitt Romney...............25%
Ron Paul...............22%
Rick Santorum...............16%
Newt Gingrich...............14%
Rick Perry...............11%
Michele Bachmann...............9%
Jon Huntsman...............1%
No opinion...............2%

CNN/TIME/ORC POLL also surveyed voters in New Hampshire. Their survey showed Mitt Romney with a substantial lead in that state, but even there at least 45% of Republican voters say they still might change their mind before primary day. Here is how their New Hampshire poll came out:

Mitt Romney...............44%
Ron Paul...............17%
Newt Gingrich...............16%
Jon Huntsman...............9%
Rick Santorum...............4%
Michele Bachmann...............3%
Rick Perry...............2%
None...............1%
No opinion...............4%

While winning the New Hampshire primary would be a big moral victory for Romney, it's not going to get him many delegates. The state will only be able to send 12 delegates to the national convention in 2012 (so even a big victory there would only get Romney 5 or 6 delegates).

Iowa GOP Race Still A Fluid Mess

The situation in Iowa remains very fluid. At least 9% of all men and 16% of all women Republican caucus voters still haven't made up their minds who to support on January 3rd, and a large number of those who have indicated a preference say they could still change their minds.

Another new poll has been released. The American Research Group Poll questioned 600 Republican caucus-goers between December 19th and 22nd (470 Republicans and 130 Independents). The margin of error is 4 points. Here is how the race stacks up in that poll:

Ron Paul...............21%
Mitt Romney...............20%
Newt Gingrich...............19%
Rick Perry...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Jon Huntsman...............6%
Rick Santorum...............4%
Buddy Roemer...............1%
Undecided...............12%

It's looking more and more like there will not be a real winner in Iowa. Instead, there will be several candidates emerge from Iowa with delegates (even Perry and Bachmann could get some delegates if things go right for them on caucus night). But things get really interesting when the poll is broken down by different groups. Here are the poll leaders by group:

MEN
Paul...............29%
Gingrich...............21%
Romney...............18%

WOMEN
Romney...............23%
Gingrich...............17%
Paul...............12%
Perry...............11%

INDEPENDENTS
Paul...............33%
Romney...............17%
Gingrich...............17%

REPUBLICANS
Romney...............21%
Gingrich...............20%
Paul...............17%
Bachmann...............10%

TEABAGGERS
Gingrich...............29%
Paul...............17%
Romney...............16%
Bachmann...............11%
Perry...............11%

NON-TEABAGGERS
Paul...............22%
Romney...............22%
Gingrich...............15%

Since the different groups are supporting candidates in differing numbers, it's all going to come down to who shows up for the caucuses. Are there going to be an abnormally large portion of Independents (which would be good for Paul)? Are the teabaggers going to show up in larger numbers than establishment Republicans (which would favor Gingrich)? Are women going to be as large a group as men (which would help Romney)?

January 3rd is shaping up to be a very interesting night for us political junkies. As Terrell Owens once said -- get your popcorn ready.

Ron Paul Is Now The Favorite In Iowa

It's now looking like Newt Gingrich has indeed tumbled out of the lead in Iowa, and Ron Paul has taken his place. This is shown by yet another Iowa poll. The KCRG/Gazette/ISU Poll was taken over a ten day period from December 8th through December 18th. It shows Gingrich still in second place, but that may be because the polling started before his precipitous fall started and therefore gives him more support than he actually has at this point.

But even more than also documenting Gingrich's fall from grace are a couple of other things it shows. One is that Paul support is deeper than that of the other candidates. About 51% of Paul's supporters say they will definitely support him at the caucuses. Committed support for the other candidates is much lower -- with Romney coming in second at 16.1% and Gingrich third at 15.2%. Only 28.1% of the Iowa voters have definitely made up their minds about who they will vote for - a remarkably low number since the caucuses are less than two weeks away.

The other interesting thing is the flattening out of support among several candidates now that both Cain and Gingrich have fallen. Several polls now have shown Perry and Bachmann (and possibly Santorum) gaining some support. While Paul will probably finish first in the caucuses, there is the very real possibility that several candidates leave the state with some delegates. Here are the poll's current numbers:

Ron Paul...............27.5%
Newt Gingrich...............25.3%
Mitt Romney...............17.5%
Rick Perry...............11.2%
Michele Bachmann...............7.4%
Rick Santorum...............4.9%
Jon Huntsman...............0.3%
Undecided...............5.4%

An even newer poll shows more clearly the flattening effect Gingrich's fall is having on the race in Iowa. The We Ask America Poll (done on December 20th with 1,250 GOP voters, with only a 2.77 point margin of error) shows the following numbers:

Ron Paul...............19%
Mitt Romney...............18%
Newt Gingrich...............16%
Michele Bachmann...............15%
Rick Perry...............11%
Rick Santorum...............9%
Jon Huntsman...............4%
Undecided...............8%

Obviously the situation in Iowa (and other places) is still very fluid and could change on an almost daily basis. And it certainly could change again before January 3rd. I personally think Paul will probably finish in first place, but it could be close. And it's anybody's guess as to how the rest will finish. That should make for a fun night of caucusing.

Is Paul The Fly In Gingrich's Ointment ?

Poll after poll has shown that the newest favorite in the Republican race for the presidential nomination is Newt Gingrich. Being unable to win a significant portion of the party's teabagger base, Romney is slipping back while support for Gingrich continues to grow. And if the polls are right, including two new Iowa polls just released, then Gingrich is the current favorite to win the Iowa caucuses (less than a month away now). Can Gingrich be stopped this late? If anyone can do it, it might be Ron Paul. But first let's look at the two newest polls on Iowa:

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING
Newt Gingrich...............27%
Ron Paul...............18%
Mitt Romney...............16%
Michele Bachmann...............13%
Rick Perry...............9%
Rick Santorum...............6%
Jon Huntsman...............4%
Gary Johnson...............1%

WASHINGTON POST/ABC NEWS POLL
Newt Gingrich...............33%
Ron Paul...............18%
Mitt Romney...............18%
Rick Perry...............11%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Rick Santorum...............7%
Jon Huntsman...............2%

Looking at these polls, Gingrich would seem to be a shoo-in for winning the Iowa caucuses. But there are a few other things that need to be considered. First, Ron Paul has moved up to at least a tie for second place, which means he has at least some momentum. If Gingrich does fall, Paul is close enough to the top to benefit from that. Second, the other candidates are starting to take their shots at Gingrich, and Ron Paul has already released a very hard-hitting anti-Gingrich TV ad (and plans to do some more). This could start having some effect this month.

The third thing is the rather remarkable ability of Ron Paul to turn out his voters. Paul supporters are true-believers, and they will be at the caucuses whether the supporters for other candidates show up or not. This has been shown in straw polls across the country -- the majority of which have been won by Ron Paul. If Gingrich falters, the Paul supporters will be there to take advantage of it, and they just might be able to snatch a victory away from Gingrich or Romney.

Gingrich is currently in the best position, but there's nearly a month to go. This is still a very interesting race, and far from over. Get your popcorn and beverages ready, because the Iowa caucuses are shaping up to be a lot of fun.

Iowa - With One Month To Go

We're just a month away from the Iowa caucuses now -- the official start of the primary voting season, when delegates to the party conventions will begin to be chosen. Things could still change before January 3rd, since the candidates have started to focus more on each other instead of the president and things are starting to get nasty, but for right now it looks like Newt Gingrich will finish first in Iowa -- putting pressure on the other candidates to do well in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Here are the two latest polls on the situation in Iowa:

Des Moines Register Poll
Newt Gingrich...............25%
Ron Paul...............18%
Mitt Romney...............16%
Herman Cain...............8%
Michele Bachmann...............8%
Rick Perry...............6%
Rick Santorum...............6%
Jon Huntsman...............2%

NBC News/Marist Poll
Newt Gingrich...............26%
Mitt Romney...............18%
Ron Paul...............17%
Herman Cain...............9%
Rick Perry...............9%
Michele Bachmann...............5%
Rick Santorum...............5%
Jon Huntsman...............2%

Poll Shows Iowa Is A Four-Way GOP Race

It's only seven weeks until the Iowa caucuses meet to determine which party candidate will be getting the convention delegates from that state. And the Republican race is still a mess. All you have to do to know that is look at the latest Iowa poll conducted by Bloomberg News. It show four candidates are virtually tied in that state. Here are the results:

Herman Cain...............20%
Ron Paul...............19%
Mitt Romney...............18%
Newt Gingrich...............17%
Rick Perry...............7%
Michele Bachmann...............5%
Rick Santorum...............3%
Jon Huntsman...............1%

The poll, taken between November 10th and 12th, has all four of the top candidates within the margin of error of 4.4 points -- meaning any of them could be the actual leader. It also means that the states delegates could be divided up between at least four candidates.

Making matters even more interesting is the fact that about 60% of the poll's respondents said they could still change their minds before the caucuses are held. I don't usually pay much attention to the Republican races, but this year's race is a lot of fun to watch. Lay in some refreshments before January 3rd, because the Iowa caucuses are definitely going to be popcorn-worthy.

Gingrich Rebounding As Cain's Problems Grow

As much as I hate to admit it, I may have been wrong about Newt Gingrich. Several months ago, I declared his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination to be dead. His campaign staff had deserted him and he was polling in the very low single digits, In addition, he was having a hard time raising money. I just wondered why he didn't accept the obvious and quit. However, now it looks like his troubled presidential campaign may be rebounding.

It is tempting to say he is benefitting from Herman Cain's recent sex scandal allegations. That's a story that seems to have some legs, even though Cain is doing his best to minimize it and is now refusing to discuss it at all. But the story won't go away. A couple of days ago we learned about a third woman who was accusing Cain of sexual harassment, and yesterday a fourth woman came forward.

The fourth woman, Sharon Bialek, has not signed a confidentiality agreement and was not afraid to reveal her name or appear in public -- and her story may be the most compelling of all. Here is how the BBC describes her story:

First Five Primary/Caucus States Are Set

New Hampshire has finally set the date for it's primary. They scheduled it for January 10th, about one week after the Iowa caucuses. That means the first five states to vote are now set. Here's what the schedule looks like for those five states:

Iowa...............January 3rd

New Hampshire...............January 10th

South Carolina...............January 21st

Florida...............January 31st

Nevada...............February 4th

That means the process to pick the presidential candidates will begin in about 8 and a half weeks -- in Iowa. The Democrats already know who their candidate will be, but the Republican race is still very much up in the air. I know the pundits are picking Mitt Romney to win the nomination, but so far, he just hasn't shown the strength in the polls to be considered a prohibitive favorite.

In fact, looking at the five first states, I only see two that Romney is assured of winning -- New Hampshire and Nevada (and no poll has shown him getting even a half of the votes in either of those two states).

Things could change in the next eight weeks, but unless it does change the race could still be very much in doubt after voting in the five states above have been completed. And that could last a while. I still think there's a chance that the Republican nominee is picked at their convention.

Romney Running Scared - Changes Strategy

Back in the 2008 Republican primary Mitt Romney tried to be the candidate that appealed to all segments of the Republican party -- a candidate with many different personas. He failed because he didn't realize that the party was already moving far to the right, and there was only one persona that the majority of Republican voters wanted to see -- that of a far right-wing fundamentalist.

Romney learned his lesson from his 2008 failure. As he entered the race for the Republican nomination this year he has done his best to re-invent himself as a teabagging right-winger. He subdued his religion, and provided many mea culpas over his rather moderate term as governor of Massachusetts (especially regarding the health care plan he signed during his term). But most teabagger Republicans are just not buying his conversion. They still viewed him as having all the personas in the picture above.

Even though the establishment Republicans supported him because they viewed him as their best hope to beat President Obama, the far right-wing teabaggers have climbed on other bandwagons -- for candidates like Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, and Herman Cain. It became very obvious that he might not do as well in the early Iowa caucuses as he did in 2008. It was looking like he would probably lose those caucuses to Bachmann (who was both a teabagger and from a neighboring state) and possibly even Ron Paul.

So the Romney campaign decided to skip the Iowa caucuses and bet the farm on a strong showing in New Hampshire. He decided that a second or third place finish in Iowa, bolstered by a big win in New Hampshire, could put him in a good position to carry his campaign to other states. He could play-off not winning Iowa by claiming he didn't really compete there.

It was a bit risky, but it could have worked. But things have changed. Texas Governor Rick Perry has jumped into the race, and poll after poll has shown he has snatched the race lead away from Romney. All of a sudden it's looking like Romney might not get that second or third place finish in Iowa. If he ignores the state he could finish as low as fifth place (which is possible since he finished fifth in the Iowa straw poll, which he also ignored).

Finishing that low in Iowa certainly wouldn't help him in New Hampshire, and if he failed to win big in New Hampshire after being an "also-ran" in Iowa his campaign could be over pretty quickly -- especially since he is also polling poorly in South Carolina which would quickly follow New Hampshire. In just the last couple of weeks Romney has gone from being the leader to possibly being in trouble. The "skip Iowa" strategy is no longer viable.

It's starting to look like the Romney campaign is now running a little scared (and he should be). They are changing their strategy in a couple of ways. Up until now Romney has not really attacked his Republican opponents, preferring to look "presidential" by remaining above the fray. But it is now being reported that he is preparing to attack Rick Perry. He is going to try and scare voters with Perry's views on Social Security, Medicare, and immigration.

It is also being reported that Romney is no longer considering skipping Iowa. Bill Kristol reported on Fox News that he has talked with people in the Romney campaign and that they are now going to make a push in Iowa.

The simple fact is that Romney had to change his strategy. He can't act like a leader now because he is no longer the leader. Now he must scratch and claw like the other candidates. It's a matter of survival.