Some Thoughts On Iowa Results

The Iowa caucuses are now over, with Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney finishing in a virtual tie. A little more than 100,000 Iowa Republicans attended the caucuses, roughly the same number than came out in 2008. If anyone thought (or hoped) that Iowa would produce a clear winner, they have to be disappointed. As expected, as the candidates leave Iowa there is still a very muddled picture of who will eventually win the nomination.

The biggest winner of the night was obviously Rick Santorum. After languishing in the 3-6% range for the last few months, he is clearly the newest anti-Romney flavor-of-the-month. With his racist, misogynistic, and homophobic views it's hard to picture him winning the Republican nomination, but it would be great for Democrats if he could. He would make McCain look like he had been a strong candidate (which he certainly wasn't) in a general election. It'll be interesting to see if he can retain the number one anti-Romney candidate status after other states get to vote.

The pundits are saying it was a good night for Mitt Romney also. I don't see it that way. It just showed that he still can't make any inroads into the teabagger base of the Republican Party. He may have finished in a tie for first place, but all that showed is his weak position. About 75% of Iowa Republicans voted against Mitt. If that trend continues, he will not be the Republican nominee.

Ron Paul made a credible showing, finishing in a very close third place. But this is probably the best showing he will have, with the possible exception of Virginia where he and Romney are the only candidates on the ballot. I expect Paul is in it for the long haul, and will probably wind up with 10-15% of the delegates. He won't win the nomination, but with that many delegates he could determine who the eventual winner will be.

Newt Gingrich finished in fourth place, about 12 points behind the leaders. That's not as good as he was hoping for, but it's probably good enough to keep him in the race for a while. His Iowa finish makes it very important that he finish strong in South Carolina -- a Southern state where he could be expected to do well. Another fourth place finish there could be devastating for his campaign.

Rick Perry only got about 10% of the Iowa vote and finished a very poor finish. He's still got some money, but like Gingrich, he needs to do much better in South Carolina or he'll be heading back to Texas.

Tonight may well have been the end of the Bachmann campaign. She finished in sixth place with only about 5% of the total vote. That's pathetic considering she was born in Iowa and currently lives in a neighboring state. Continuing her campaign after this shattering defeat would just be a waste of time and money.

Jon Huntsman brought up the rear with less than 1% of the vote, but he did no campaigning at all in Iowa. He has put all his eggs in the New Hampshire basket, and must do very well there or end his campaign.

Here are the vote totals as I write this post (just a few minutes before midnight). There 99.5% of the precincts reporting and the totals show:

Rick Santorum...............29,908 (24.6%)
Mitt Romney...............29,874 (24.5%)
Ron Paul...............26,097 (21.4%)
Newt Gingrich...............16,161 (13.3%)
Rick Perry...............12,536 (10.3%)
Michele Bachmann...............6,056 (5%)
Jon Huntsman...............742 (0.6%)
No preference...............132 (0.1%)
Other...............118 (0.1%)
Herman Cain...............58 (0%)