Trump Wins South Carolina (But Shows Some Weakness)

 

Donald Trump won the South Carolina Republican primary in a 60% to 40% decision over Nikki Haley. But he showed some weakness. Most pundits and polls had him winning upwards of 70% of the vote.

Exit polling showed where some of the weakness existed. Trump lost 53% of college educated voters, 41% of Republican women, 73% of moderates, 60% of Independents, and 54% of non-evangelicals.

I expect most of the Haley voters will hold their nose and vote for Trump in November, but it won't take many to vote Biden, vote third party, or just stay at home to deny him the presidency.

New Poll Has Trump With A 36 Point Lead In South Carolina

 This chart is from the Winthrop University Poll - done between February 2nd and 10th of 749 likely Republican primary voters, with a 3.58 point margin of error.

Trump Has A Huge Lead Over Haley In South Carolina

This chart is from the CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between February 5th and 10th of 1,004 likely Republican voters in South Carolina, with a 4.4 point margin of error.
 

Biden Wins Big In South Carolina (& Will Elsewhere)

There are two other people on the Democratic primary ballot, but President Biden has no actual competition. He won big in South Carolina -- getting over 96% of the Democratic vote. That left his token opponents with less than 4%. We can expect the same in other states. We still must go through the primary process, but for all intents and purposes, this race is over. 

Trump Still Has A Huge Lead Over Haley In South Carolina

The chart above is from the Washington Post / Monmouth University Poll -- done between January 26th and 30th of 815 potential Republican primary voters in South Carolina, with a 3.9 point margin of error.

It Takes More Than Money To Win An Election

 In the past, many Democrats have complained that they could not win elections because they didn't have the money to compete with Republican candidates. That was not a problem in 2020, as Democrats across the country outraged their Republican opponents in campaign funds. Sadly though, Democrats lost seats in the House (although retaining control with a smaller majority), and need to win both Senate seats in Georgia to get control of the Senate.

It just goes to show that raising large amounts of campaign cash doesn't necessarily translate into wins. That was especially shown in the Senate seats in Kentucky and South Carolina. Democrats nominated good candidates in both states, and those candidates raised more than double the cash that their opponents did. But the Republicans won both seats, giving them a good chance to retain control of the Senate.

Campaign cash is important, because it allows a candidate to compete in advertising, but it takes more than money to win an election.

Some States Reopening As Virus Cases Still Climbing

Donald Trump wants the economy reopened, and he is urging states to do that. He is hoping that will cause a rebound of the nation's economy (and help his re-election efforts). Sadly, it looks like some Republican governors are going to give Trump what he wants.

Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina have all announced plans to reopen their businesses. But they are doing so inspire of the growing number of Coronavirus cases in their states. The charts above show the growth of cases in those states over the last couple of weeks. Note that none of the states show a leveling off of cases. In fact, the number of virus cases continue to grow in all four cases. (In South Carolina it looks like it is leveling off on the chart, but that is an illusion caused by no tests being done on some days, like 4/20).

These governor's are playing with fire. Their efforts to reopen businesses is likely to backfire on them, and increase the growth of the virus.

The charts were made using numbers from The COVID Tracking Project.

Biden Gets A Huge Bump From His South Carolina Victory

The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll. It compares the support of the major candidates both before and after the South Carolina primary. The pre-S.C. primary poll was done between February 23rd and 27th of a national sample of 13,428 likely Democratic primary voters, and has a 1 point margin of error. The post-S.C. poll was donjon March 1st of a national sample of 2,656 likely Democratic primary voters, and has a 2 point margin of error.

The poll shows Joe Biden got a significant 7 point boost after his victory in South Carolina. He polled 19% before that primary and 26% after it.

Bernie Sanders is still leading in the poll with 29%, but his lead has narrowed. He led by 13 points before the primary. That dropped to a 3 point lead after the primary.

Biden Wins Big In The South Carolina Primary

Joe Biden needed a big win in the South Carolina Democratic primary -- and he got it. In a field of seven candidates, he got nearly half of the votes. That means he'll get the lion's share of South Carolina's 54 delegates.

With 99% of the vote counted, here's how each candidate stood:

Biden..........255,666 (48.5%)
Sanders..........105,031 (19.9%)
Steyer..........59,814 (11.3%)
Buttigieg..........43,398 (8.2%)
Warren..........37,250 (7.1%)
Klobuchar..........16,588 (3.1%)
Gabbard..........6,740 (1.3%)

NOTE -- Tom Steyer has suspended his presidential campaign after not winning any delegates in the first four states. He had spent millions of dollars in South Carolina, and needed to win some delegates there. Steyer told his supporters that he no longer sees a path to winning the nomination.

Primary Day In South Carolina - Will Biden Get His 1st Win?

It's primary day in South Carolina, and Joe Biden desperately needs a win. Will South Carolina come through for him?

The chart above is from RealClearPolitics. It shows the most recent six polls for the South Carolina Democratic primary -- and if these polls are correct, it could be a good day for Biden. All of the polls show him leading.

The RealClearPolitics average of those polls shows Biden ahead of Sanders by 12 points (34.3% to 22.3%). Steyer is third with 13.7%. Then comes Buttigieg with 9%, Warren with 8%, and Klobuchar with 4%.

Two New (And Very Different) South Carolina Polls

The chart above is from the Public Policy Polling survey -- done on February 23rd and 24th of 866 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, with a 3.3 point margin of error.

The chart above is from the NBC News / Marist Poll -- done between February 18th and 21st of 539 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, with a 6.0 point margin of error.

These two polls, both respected, are very different. Public Policy Polling has Joe Biden with a 15 point lead over Bernie Sanders. The NBC News poll has Biden leading by only 4 points over Sanders. That a huge difference.

Which poll is right? We won't know that until Saturday night when the voters have their say in South Carolina. I suspect the reality lies somewhere between the two polls.

Joe Biden Still Leads In South Carolina

The chart above is from a new CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between February 20th and 22nd of 1,238 likely primary voters in South Carolina, with a 5.5 point margin of error.

Biden Leads South Carolina With Many Still Undecided

The chart above reflects the results of the Winthrop University Poll -- done between February 9th and 19th of 443 likely voters in the South Carolina Democratic primary, and has a 4.7 point margin of error.

Biden still has a lead, but it is not a large one. And there is still about 1/5 of voters that have not made up their minds. That's a large enough portion to change the results if they break for one or two candidates.

New Poll Says Joe Biden Still Leads In South Carolina

The chart above reflects the results of the ECU Center for Survey Research Poll -- done on February 12th and 13th of 703 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina, with a 4.3 point margin of error.

Steyer Moves Up In South Carolina And Nevada Polls

The chart above reflects the results of a new Fox News Poll -- done between January 5th and 8th of a sample of 808 South Carolina Democratic primary voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of a new Fox News Poll -- done between January 5th and 8th of a sample of 635 Democratic caucus voters, with a 4 point margin of error.

The polls show Joe Biden is still leading in both states -- with 36% in South Carolina and 23% in Nevada. That's not surprising. The real surprise in both of these polls is Tom Steyer. He has moved up to second place in South Carolina with 15%, and a tie for third place in Nevada with 12%.

These are the biggest numbers Steyer has posted in any poll, and they were good enough to get him on the stage in the next debate.

It will be interesting to see new polls for Iowa and New Hampshire. Has he moved up there also, or is he still just an also-ran in those states? And if he doesn't get delegates out of Iowa and New Hampshire, will his support diminish in South Carolina and Nevada?

We're less than a month away from voting to begin, and the race is starting to get interesting.

NOTE -- Spending big money on TV ads in these two states may be paying off for Steyer. He has spent over $14 million in South Carolina and over $10 million in Nevada -- far more than any other Democrat.

Poll Shows Lindsey Graham Could Lose His Senate Seat

These charts are from the Change Research / Post and Courier Poll in South Carolina. They polled 998 likely primary voters between between December 6th and 11th, with a margin of error of 3.1 points. For the Democratic nomination, 392 likely Democratic primary voters were questioned, with a 4.9 point margin of error.

When Jaime Harrison declared he was running to unseat Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, I didn't give him much chance of success. I could have been wrong. This poll shows him only 2 points behind Graham (within the poll's margin of error). Are South Carolina voters unhappy with Graham's continuous lying to protect Trump?

The poll also showed Biden may have lost some support in the state. But he still has a significant lead - beyond the poll's margin of error.

Joe Biden Still Looks Strong In South Carolina

The chart above reflects the results of the new Quinnipiac University Poll of voters in South Carolina. They questioned 768 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina between November 13th and 17th. The survey has a 4.8 point margin of error.

Much has been in the news lately about the reshuffling of candidate support in Iowa -- with Buttigieg taking the lead and Biden dropping to fourth place. That is not true in South Carolina.

Biden continues to lead strongly in South Carolina with 33% of the vote -- 20 point ahead of Warren and 22 points ahead of Sanders. Buttigieg finished in fourth, but with only 6% -- 27 points behind Biden.

It Looks Like Biden's Lead Is Shrinking In South Carolina

The charts above are from the Post And Courier / Change Research Poll -- done between October 15th and 21st of 731 likely Democratic primary voters in South Carolina. The poll has a 3.6 point margin of error.

The poll shows that Joe Biden is still leading with 30%, while Elizabeth Warren is in second with 19%. The bad news for Biden is that is the smallest amount of support he has had and the largest so far for Warren. That 11 point deficit for Warren is also the smallest this poll has shown since the race started.

Can Warren catch up with Biden in South Carolina? If so, that would be a disaster for Biden. He's already probably trailing in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he's counting on South Carolina to give him a big boost before Super Tuesday.  If Warren can just get close to Biden in the number of delegates from South Carolina, it would be viewed as a victory for her -- and it could shake things up for Super Tuesday.

The Early States All Look Different For Democrats

This chart reflects the results of a CBS News Battleground / YouGov Poll -- done between October 3rd and 11th of a sample of 729 registered voters in Iowa, with a 4.6 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of a CBS News Battleground / YouGov Poll -- done between October 3rd and 11th of a sample of 506 registered voters in New Hampshire, with a 5.4 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of a CBS News Battleground / YouGov Poll - done between October 3rd and 11th of a sample of 915 registered voters in South Carolina, with a 3.9 point margin of error.

The polls in these three early states look radically different. In Iowa, Warren, Biden, and Sanders are in a virtual tie. In New Hampshire, Warren holds a substantial lead. And in South Carolina, Biden holds a substantial lead.

If these numbers hold, it won't be until Super Tuesday in early March that we get a real view of how the race shapes up.

New Democratic Polls For Nevada And South Carolina

This chart reflects the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between September 22nd and 26th of 324 voters likely to participate in the Nevada Democratic caucus. The margin of error is 7.1 points.

This chart reflects the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between September 22nd and 26th of 406 voters likely to participate in the South Carolina Democratic primary. The margin of error is 5.9 points.

According to this poll, Nevada looks like a free-for-all among the three leading Democrats. While Biden and Sanders lead with 22% each, Warren is close behind at 18% -- and considering the large margin of error, the three are in a virtual tie. Everyone else is far behind.

It is much different in South Carolina. Biden leads with 37% -- 21 points ahead of Warren (16%) and 26 points ahead of Sanders (11%). No one else tops 4%.

NOTE -- The charts include only the candidates able to get at least 1% support.