Don't Underestimate This Democratic Governor In The 2028 Presidential Race

There's been a lot of talk already about who could headline the Democratic ticket in 2028. The most mentioned candidates are governors - Newsom of California, Pritzker of Illinois, and Shapiro of Pennsylvania. 

But there is another Democratic governor who is quietly planning on running for president - Andy Beshear of Kentucky. Beshear has been elected governor twice in a bright red state. That's a pretty remarkable feat - and means he should get at least some consideration from Democratic voters.

Here are some quotes from Beshear from Politico.com:

“I wouldn’t underestimate me. If people want to underestimate me, I’m used to it, and it drives me.”

“Democratic primary voters are going to be, number one, focused on electability. Who do we believe has the best chance of beating J.D. Vance?”

“I’m a guy who has won three straight statewide elections in a Trump plus-30 state. I think it’s a mixture of both electability and the idea that, here’s somebody that not only could win in a purple state, he wins in a red state.”

“You both want somebody who’s electable, but then somebody who can deliver.”

“Democrats and a lot of Republicans are going to look for someone who can right the ship, hopefully who can heal the country and who can get us past our McCarthyism moment and back to a more stable time.”

“See, I think by the time that we reach 2028, the country is going to be tired. And they’re going to be so tired of what Trump has done, the idea of having a Democratic version of Trump is more than that — it’s exhausting.”

“I’m a pro-business, pro-union Democrat that vetoed an anti-trans bill. So you know, I believe in standing up for people’s rights. I believe strongly in them. At the same time, I spent 80 percent of my time on jobs, infrastructure, healthcare, public safety and public education.”

“As we look at our future energy needs, we need a more realistic approach. And that realistic approach is that older forms of energy production aren’t going to go offline as quickly as some Democrats wanted them.”

“We can’t be preachy Democrats that say: ‘You might not feel safe, but look at the statistics.’”

“I describe myself as pragmatic.”

“I think when we look, especially at the federal government, which [Trump is] decimating, he’s burning to the ground, you don’t just say, we’re going to rebuild it all back as it was before. You build something more efficient, you build something more effective."

“Part of working with the African American community is the recognition that I will never be able to feel the weight of racism, of Jim Crow, the scars that are still carried. And I think if you admit that, and you’re willing to have these conversations, that you can build trust.”

It Takes More Than Money To Win An Election

 In the past, many Democrats have complained that they could not win elections because they didn't have the money to compete with Republican candidates. That was not a problem in 2020, as Democrats across the country outraged their Republican opponents in campaign funds. Sadly though, Democrats lost seats in the House (although retaining control with a smaller majority), and need to win both Senate seats in Georgia to get control of the Senate.

It just goes to show that raising large amounts of campaign cash doesn't necessarily translate into wins. That was especially shown in the Senate seats in Kentucky and South Carolina. Democrats nominated good candidates in both states, and those candidates raised more than double the cash that their opponents did. But the Republicans won both seats, giving them a good chance to retain control of the Senate.

Campaign cash is important, because it allows a candidate to compete in advertising, but it takes more than money to win an election.

Six Corporations Supporting The GOP War On Women

Six states have now passed bills that would outlaw all abortions. All those states are GOP-controlled, and the laws were passed by Republicans. Those Republicans know that the laws they passed were unconstitutional, but hope that the Supreme Court (buoyed by Trump new right-wing extremist justices) will overturn Roe vs. Wade (which has been the law for nearly 5 decades now).

Most Americans don't agree with these new laws. A significant majority of Americans support Roe vs. Wade, and want to see it remain the law of this land. The Republicans don't care what most Americans want. They represent only a tiny minority hiding behind religion, and wanting to force their own religious beliefs on everyone else. These laws would once again make women second-class citizens who cannot even make decisions to control their own bodies. It is nothing less than a war on women.

What can decent Americans do? All of the normal things -- write to government officials and newspapers, demonstrate for women's rights, and vote the Republicans out of office. And maybe their is something else. There are six corporations who have donated money to the anti-woman Republican legislators. Make those companies know they should not be a part of the war on women -- and if they don't listen, boycott their products.

Here, from popular.info, are those six corporations:

AT&T: $196,600 across six states

Walmart: $57,700 across six states

Pfizer: $53,650 across six states

Eli Lilly: $66,250 across five states

Coca-Cola: $40,800 across five states

Aetna: $26,600 across four states

Clinton Ekes Out Kentucky Win - Moves Closer To Nomination

The Democratic race for the presidential nomination among Kentucky voters was exceptionally close. The lead went back and forth all night, but in the end Clinton won. Out of more than 422,000 votes cast, her victory margin was less than 2,000 votes. With 99% of the vote in, Clinton had 46.8% and Sanders had 46.3%.

But the important part of what happened in Kentucky was the delegate count. Sanders needed a big win in Kentucky so he could close the delegate gap. It didn't happen. They split the delegates available. That means that Sanders made up no ground at all, but Clinton just moved closer to the 2,383 delegates she needs to clinch the nomination.

Here is the current delegate count (according to Bloomberg Politics):

PRIMARY/CAUCUS DELEGATES
Clinton...............1741
Sanders...............1458
difference...............283

TOTAL DELEGATES
Clinton...............2265
Sanders...............1498
difference...............767

That means Clinton only needs 118 (11.8%) delegates out of the 1002 remaining unallocated delegates, while Sanders needs 885 (88.3%) of those delegates.

Kentucky And Oregon Primaries Are Today

 I just wanted to say a little about the two states that are having primaries today -- Kentucky and Oregon. There are no reliable polls done on the Democratic presidential race in these two states, but the pundits seem to think Sanders will win both. That may be true, but I expect it will probably be pretty close in both states -- and the two candidates will split the available delegates. That will just move Clinton closer to the 2,383 delegates needed for the nomination.

Bernie's supporters like to talk about a "contested" convention. That's just a sad dream. Bernie can continue his campaign if he wants, but Clinton will become the nominee on the first ballot (and she will have several hundred more delegates than needed).

Davis Gives In And Will Allow Licenses To Be Issued

This is certainly not going to make the bigots happy who were celebrating Kentucky County Clerk, Kim Davis, as some kind of hero. It seems that the few days she spent in jail have had the desired effect, and she wants no more of it. She's still whining about her "religious rights", but she now says her office will follow the law -- and issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. Here is what she had to say before returning to work on Monday:

“I am here before you this morning as I return to work to say that I love my lord Jesus, I love all people and I love my job. I want to continue to serve all three as I have tried to do until now. Since January of this year, I have been asking Gov. Beshear, the Kentucky legislature, and more recently, Judge Bunning, for one simple thing: an accommodation for my religious beliefs regarding marriage that would allow me to serve the citizens of Rowan County without violating my conscience." 


"I love my deputy clerks, and I hate that they have been caught in the middle. If any of them feels that they must issue an unauthorized license to avoid being thrown in jail I understand their tough choice, and I will take no action against them. However, any unauthorized license that they issue will not have my name, my title or my authority on it. Instead, the license will state that they are issued pursuant to a federal court order."


-------------------------------------------------------------

And there's also good news for those who were afraid that many counties in Texas would not comply with the law, and issue same-sex marriage licenses. The Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that about 2,500 same-sex marriage licenses have been issued statewide in Texas since the Supreme Court decision (about 5.7% of all licenses issued). And they quote Carrie Williams of the Texas Department of State Health Services as saying:

“We have not heard of any county clerks not issuing licenses to same-sex couples. They all have the new version of the marriage license application.”

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/article35078190.html#storylink=cpy

Kim Davis Is NOT Supported By Rowan County Officials

(This photo of Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis is from Slate.com.)

After viewing the crowds cheering Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis on her release from jail last week, you may have been given the impression that the Rowan County officials support Davis. But that is simply not true. If anything, they are embarrassed and upset by her illegal actions. Consider the following from an interview with the Rowan County Attorney by Shannon Ragland of the Kentucky Trial Court Review:

Exclusive. Just conducted an interview with Cecil Watkins, the Rowan County Attorney. Watkins (who to my knowledge) hasn't given any interviews.

Watkins indicates that Kim Davis "does not represent" Rowan County and is not representative of its inclusive values.

From Day One, Watkins told David I "will not and cannot support" you in her defiance of the law. Not only that he was clear he would not represent her as the law in the case of same sex marriage is clear.

While he has no stance on same sex marriage, well-established federal law must be followed.

Watkins wanted to emphasize several other things.

First that everyone who works at the courthouse has endured cursing as they enter the building. And it's not just at her office. Everyone in the courthouse is scared to come to work.

Second that Liberty Counsel will leave Kim Davis high and dry when this charade is over. Watkins thinks the funds they raise off the case should go to Rowan County.

Finally and most importantly he has learned that deputy clerks would issue lawful marriage licenses. They are simply afraid to do so. And if Judge Bunning instructs them to do so . . . they will.

Davis has put, in the words of Watkins, her employees and everyone in the courthouse in a "terrible position."

Watkins, in his role as the County Attorney, will be in court tomorrow for the hearing at 11:00 in Ashland. He is pictured being sworn in.

Ed. Note - The takeaways from the Watkins interview are clear. Davis is acting alone in her zealous mission. Her conduct has terrorized not just her staff but everyone that works in the courthouse. And all for a foolish mission aided by out of state charlatan lawyers trying to raise money for their "religious liberty" mission.

Shannon Ragland
Kentucky Trial Court Review

Davis To Return To Work - Will She Continue Her Bigotry?

(This cartoon image is by Kevin Siers in the Charlotte Observer.)

County Clerk Kim Davis is out of jail, and will return to work on Monday. The question on everyone's mind is what will she do when she gets back to work. Will she stay out of the way and let her clerks do their jobs -- obeying the law and issuing marriage licenses to all (including same-sex couples)? Or will she try to stop the issuance of those licenses again? At least one of the clerks has said he would disobey her and issue same-sex marriage licenses. Will she try to fire him?

The judge was very clear when he released her last week -- she must allow the licenses to be issued. But when she was released, there was a crowd (including a couple of presidential candidates) who treated her like some kind of hero for breaking the law. Will this convince her to continue to break the law?

She needs to understand that it isn't just the judge that is getting tired of her booted antics. That crowd that cheered her represents only a small minority of Americans. Most people think she should issue the licenses, and supported the judge when he jailed her (see charts below) -- and they'll support him throwing her back in jail if she continues to ignore the law.

The charts below represent the results of a recent YouGov Poll -- done between September 4th and 7th of a random sample of 1,000 nationwide adults, and has a margin of error of 3.9 points. Note that a significant majority of all groups oppose the illegal bigotry of Kim Davis.

Judge Releases Bigoted County Clerk From Jail - For Now

U.S. District Court Judge David Banning has released Kentucky County Clerk from jail. He said there was no reason to keep her in jail since other clerks in her office are issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. But he issued a warning, telling her that she:

“shall not interfere in any way, directly or indirectly, with the efforts of her deputy clerks to issue marriage licenses to all legally eligible couples.”

The question now is -- what will she do when she returns to work? Will she allow the other clerks in her office to continue issuing those marriage licenses (as the law demands), or will she once again order them to not issue same-sex marriage licenses. She has not stated publicly what she'll do, but her lawyers believe she will stop the issuing of the licenses. If she does, she will be sent right back to jail.

And the judge would be right to send her back to jail. Regardless of religious belief, elected officials (and unelected government officials) must abide by the law. Allowing officials to pick and choose which laws they will obey and which laws they will ignore simply cannot be allowed. Federal law must be obeyed in all cities, counties, and states, or anarchy will be the result -- and the very authority of the Constitution will be destroyed.

If she truly cannot obey the law without denying her own religious beliefs, then she should resign and find a job that she can do without violating her religious beliefs. Same-sex couples have the same right to marry as any other citizen does. That's the law, and she must obey it.

A couple of presidential candidates showed up at her release to try and make some political hay out of the situation -- Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee. That might help them with some Republican evangelicals in the party primaries, but it's sure not going to help them if they make it to the general election. Two thirds of Americans believe officials should obey the law -- even if it violates their religious beliefs (see chart below).

The chart was made from information in a new Rasmussen Poll -- done on September 6th and 7th of a random national sample of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

Kentucky Clerk Goes To Jail - Licenses Will Be Issued

U.S. District Court Judge David Bunning (appointed by President George W. Bush in 2002) has had enough of Kentucky County Clerk Kim Davis refusing to follow the law -- and on Thursday he found her in contempt of court, and ordered her to be jailed until she is willing to follow the law.

Davis has been refusing to issue marriage licenses to gay/lesbian couples, claiming it violates her religious beliefs -- and she has refused to let any of the other clerks in her office issue those licenses. She is putting her own particular religious beliefs above the Constitution of the United States, and violating her oath to uphold the laws of this country in performing the duties of her office.

The judge could have fined Davis, but he realized that those fines would have been paid by religious groups around the country -- and that would have just delayed things much further. So he chose a punishment (jail) that would apply only to the offending clerk. I think he made the right decision. Davis is the one trashing our laws and Constitution, and she is the one who needs to be punished.

That's not the only good news though. The judge questioned the other six clerks, and five of them told him they are willing to issue the marriage licenses. The only hold-out was Kim Davis' son (evidently Kentucky has no nepotism laws). Those licenses will now be issued, starting today.

NOTE -- Some have said Davis should be removed from office (and I agree). But according to Kentucky law an elected official can only be removed by the legislature impeaching them. That legislature is not in session, and will not be in session again until January -- and the governor has said he will not call it into a special session.

The Preference Of Kentucky Voters For President

With a recent Public Policy Polling survey (done between June 18th and 23rd of 610 Democratic voters and 413 Republican voters) we get our first look at how the voters of that state view the presidential race. The margin of error is 4 points for Democrats and 4.8 points for Republicans.

Recent polls in New Hampshire have shown that Bernie Sanders is within 8 to 10 points of Hillary Clinton. Kentucky is different. It shows no real movement for Sanders, at least not yet, and he trails Clinton by 44 points.

Rand Paul leads the other GOP candidates in his home state, which is good news for him since he has not been doing real well in recent polls elsewhere. Still, he only registers about 19%. The surprise of this poll is Donald Trump, who finishes with 12% (and trailing only Paul and Bush.

The Stupidest Supreme Court Argument In Nearly 50 Years

This has to be a sign of just how desperate the politicians of the religious right have become in their effort to please the fundamentalists. In an effort to justify their continuing ban on same-sex marriages, attorney's for the state of Kentucky have filed a brief with the Supreme Court. That brief says "men and women, whether heterosexual or homosexual, cannot marry persons of the same sex".

Yes, you read that correctly. Kentucky says their law banning same-sex marriages is not discriminatory because it applies to both heterosexuals and homosexuals. They say that keeping heterosexuals from doing something they have no intention or desire to do, means that keeping homosexuals from marrying the person they love is not discrimination.

That has to be the stupidest argument before the United States Supreme Court since the state of Virginia argued in 1967 that keeping Blacks from marrying Whites wasn't discrimination because they also kept Whites from marrying Blacks -- hoping the court wouldn't see that the arguments are different sides of the same coin.

The Supreme Court brushed aside that argument, and ruled that banning interracial marriages violated the Constitution. And that is what the court should do to this stupid argument by Kentucky. Keeping heterosexuals from marrying a person of the same sex does not justify keeping homosexual couples from marrying the person they love -- and only an idiot could think it does.

It is time for this country to completely outlaw bans on same-sex marriages. These bans are an abomination to all decent people, regardless of sexual orientation -- and it is time they were tossed into the trash bin of history (along with other forms of bigotry and discrimination).

More U.S. Senate Polls

Rasmussen Poll

Rasmussen Poll

Reuters / IPSOS Poll

Christopher Newport University Poll

Vox Populi Polling

Landmark Communications Poll

Herald-Leader / WKYT / SurveyUSA Poll

Senate Polls - Colorado, Kentucky, Michigan, Arkansas

Public Policy Polling

Bluegrass Poll

The Big Red Poll

Fox 2 / Mitchell Research Poll

TB&P / Hendrix College Poll

Raising The Minimum Wage Is A Great Issue For Democrats

The 2014 election is entering its final stage, with less than 3 weeks now until election day -- and candidates are looking for that thing which will put them over the line. There is one issue that Democrats could use to win -- raising the minimum wage. It is an issue that a significant majority of Americans in every state agrees with, and an issue opposed by nearly every single Republican candidate.

The folks at Public Policy Polling looked at six states that have important senate races -- races that could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. And they looked at what the people thought of raising the minimum wage in those states. Note that a majority of voters in all six states think the minimum wage should be raised to at least $10.10 an hour (and even bigger majorities don't think a family could be raised on the current minimum wage).

Perhaps even more important is how voters would consider candidates who oppose raising the minimum wage. That is illustrated in the chart below, and it's something that should worry Republican candidates. By opposing a higher minimum wage, they lose a lot more votes than they gain.

Smart Democratic candidates should campaign very hard on this issue in the coming couple of weeks. It could easily make the difference between winning and losing in a close race. And not just in these six states. Other PPP polls have shown that people in other states with close senate contests (like Colorado, Arkansas, and Georgia) also have significant majorities supporting a $10.10 an hour minimum wage.

Public Policy Polling interviewed 767 likely voters in Louisiana, 974 likely voters in North Carolina, 812 likely voters in Illinois, 659 likely voters in Iowa, 1,175 likely voters in Kentucky, and 841 likely voters in Wisconsin between October 10th and 12th. The margins of error for the surveys are +/-3.5% in Louisiana, +/-3.1% in North Carolina, +/- 3.4% in Illinois, +/-3.8% in Iowa, +/-2.9% in Kentucky, and +/-3.4% in Wisconsin. 

Kentucky Senate Race Is Still A Dead Heat

This chart shows the results of a new Bluegrass Poll -- conducted of 800 Kentucky adults between September 30th and October 2nd for the Lexington Herald-Leader, The Louisville Courier-Journal, WHAS-TV, and WKYT-TV (and has a 3.7 margin of error).

I have seen a lot of Democrats celebrating the result of this poll online, and I admit that it is encouraging, but we need to be realistic. The 2 point lead by Alison Grimes over Mitch McConnell is within the poll's margin of error -- so all we can really draw from this poll is that the race is still a dead heat, and either candidate could win. That's still pretty amazing, considering Democrat Grimes is running against the Senate Minority Leader (who a year ago was expected to win easily).

This race will be won by which party gets the most voters to the poll on election day. Vote Kentuckians! Vote in large numbers! A big turnout could easily give Grimes the win.

Thoughts On The Kentucky Senate Race

These charts are from information contained in a new poll on the Kentucky Senate race. It is the SurveyUSA Poll -- done between August 25th and 27th of 569 likely Kentucky voters, with a 4.2 point margin of error. The top chart shows the results for all adults, and the bottom one gives the demographic breakdown.

The Louisville Courier-Journal requested the poll, and they printed it under the headline "McConnell expands lead in Bluegrass Poll". I'm not at all sure that headline is justified. Note that McConnell's lead is within the poll's margin of error -- which means he may not have a lead at all (at least not one that can be determined in a statistically significant way).

I was a bit disappointed in the demographic breakdown regarding the women's vote. It shows Grimes with only a 1 point lead among women. She is going to have to do much better than that to beat McConnell. If that poll number is correct, Grimes will need to get most of the 7% undecided among women, and then have women vote in larger numbers than men -- and both of those things could easily happen.

But there was something else in that SurveyUSA Poll -- something that could have a real effect on the outcome of the election. The poll asked Kentuckians whether they wanted to see the minimum wage raised from $7.25 an hour to $10.10 an hour, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. Note that every demographic group (except those making more than $80,000 a year) showed majority support for raising the minimum wage.

This is an issue that Mitch McConnell is on the wrong side of -- and he has not only helped to kill the raise in the Senate, but has been clear he would do the same in the future. Alison Grimes, the Democratic candidate, needs to jump on this issue and beat it like a drum until election day. She needs to make it clear to all voters that she would support raising the minimum wage, while McConnell (who has sold out to the corporations) opposes that. This could be the issue that costs McConnell enough votes to keep him from winning re-election.

Senate Races Close In Kansas, North Carolina, & Kentucky

Public Policy Polling has released new polls on the senate races in three states -- Kansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky. They surveyed 903 likely voters in Kansas between August 14th and 17th, with a margin of error of 3.3 points -- 856 likely voters in North Carolina between August 14th and 17th, with a 3.4 point margin of error -- and 991 likely voters in Kentucky between August 7th and 10th, with a margin of error of 3.1 points.

A year ago, the Republicans were thinking they could flip the Senate, and a big part of that was their thinking they could easily hold on to Kansas and Kentucky and then take North Carolina from the Democrats. But it isn't working out that way. The senate races in all three of these races have turned out to be real dogfights.

In Kansas, the unpopularity of the incumbent Republican senator (Pat Roberts) and a popular Independent candidate (Greg Orman) has caused that race to be a three-way split between the candidates (with the third candidate being Democrat Chad Taylor). I still expect the Republican incumbent to eke out a win in Kansas, but the truth is that anything could happen there -- including the election of another Independent to the Senate (joining Independent Senators King of Maine and Sanders of Vermont).

North Carolina has proved to be tougher for the Republicans to flip than they had expected. Incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan still hangs on to a four point lead, and I think she'll probably survive in November. The Republicans may have killed this excellent chance by nominating an extremist teabagger candidate (Thom Tillis).

But Kentucky remains the most interesting of these three states. The lead has flipped back and forth between the incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell and his Democratic opponent Alison Grimes. Right now McConnell has a four point lead according to the PPP survey, but that is far from a safe lead. There are still 9% of the voters that are undecided, and those undecideds give McConnell a 10% favorable to a 66% disapproval rating. This one is just too close to call.

The Republicans had thought these three states were theirs -- but it now looks like they could easily lose one, and maybe two, of them.

Kentucky's Same-Sex Marriage Ban Is Tossed Out

There are 19 states in this country that now allow legal same-sex marriages. And after judges in Wisconsin and Indiana tossed out same-sex marriage bans, there were 9 states whose bans were declared to be unconstitutional and are awaiting appeals court decisions. There is now a 10th. On Tuesday, Senior U.S. District Court Judge John G. Heyburn II (a Bush appointee) ruled that the ban on same-sex marriages in Kentucky was unconstitutional. Judge Heyburn said the state's argument that marriage was for procreation only is not an argument of "serious people".

The judge went on to say, "Even assuming the state has a legitimate interest in promoting procreation, the Court fails to see, and Defendant never explains, how the exclusion of same-sex couples from marriage has any effect whatsoever on procreation among heterosexual spouses. Excluding same-sex couples from marriage does not change the number of heterosexual couples who choose to get married, the number who choose to have children, or the number of children they have."

Judge Heyburn concluded by saying, "Sometimes, by upholding equal rights for a few, courts necessarily must require others to forebear some prior conduct or restrain some personal instinct. Here, that would not seem to be the case. Assuring equal protection for same-sex couples does not diminish the freedom of others to any degree. The same-sex couples' right to marry seems to be a uniquely "free" constitutional right. Hopefully, even those opposed to or uncertain about same-sex marriage will  see it that way in the future."

He ruled the same-sex marriage ban in Kentucky violated "the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution".

Religion does not trump the Constitution (and that's what this was really about). If it did, this country would be a theocracy instead of a democracy. In a democracy, especially a constitutional democracy like ours, all people must have the same rights -- and same-sex couples should have the same rights given to opposite-sex couples.

The 10th Circuit Court of Appeals has now ruled to uphold tossing out the marriage ban in Utah (and that probably also applies to Oklahoma, who is under that same appeals court). But the stay is still in effect (preventing same-sex marriages to start), pending an appeal to the Supreme Court. This decision will almost surely require the Supreme Court to finally take up this issue -- probably in their next term. That means we could be only about a year away from a Supreme Court decision that could legalize same-sex marriage in every state.

Kentucky Senate Race Is Still A Toss-Up

The chart above shows the results of the latest Magellan Strategies Poll on voter preference for the Kentucky Senate race. The survey was conducted on June 4th and 5th of 808 likely general election voters in Kentucky, and has a margin of error of 3.45 points.

The poll shows Grimes with a three point lead (49% to 46%), but that is within the poll's margin of error. That means the race is still very close, and could be won by either candidate -- which is just how the race has stood for months now. Even though McConnell is the current Minority Leader in the U.S. Senate, he has been unable to shake his Democratic opponent.

This is one race that could go down to the wire in November -- and unless something significant happens before then, it could actually be won by the Democrats (which would kill any chance the GOP had of taking over the Senate).