Showing posts with label Kansas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kansas. Show all posts

Thursday, August 04, 2022

Kansas Shows Abortion Is A Potent Force In 2022 Election


Pundits have been wondering whether the banning of abortion in many states is going to be an important factor in the upcoming midterm election. Kansas voters answered that question on Tuesday night. The voter turnout was more than twice as big there as in the last two off-year primaries -- and voters made sure that abortion would remain available by rejecting a constitution amendment that would allow abortion to be banned. And it wasn't even close, with pro-choice forces winning by about 18 points!

The following is part of an op-ed on this by Jennifer Rubin in The Washington Post:

A political earthquake shook Kansas on Tuesday. Voters in the deep-red state turned out in droves to reject a measure that would have taken abortion protection out of the state constitution. With more than 90 percent of the vote reported, the “no” vote (which would preserve abortion access) led by nearly 20 points as of Wednesday morning.

President Biden put out a rare statement on a state referendum, praising the turnout and result. “Voters in Kansas turned out in record numbers to reject extreme efforts to amend the state constitution to take away a woman’s right to choose and open the door for a state-wide ban,” he said. “This vote makes clear what we know: the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion and should have the right to make their own health care decisions.” He urged Congress to “listen to the will of the American people and restore the protections of Roe as federal law.”

This is the first concrete evidence of a major backlash against the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision. Forced-birth advocates in Kansas thought that by putting the measure on a primary ballot, for which turnout is historically lower, conservative voters could dominate. Instead, they drove Democrats and a lot of pro-choice independents and Republicans who might not otherwise vote to the polls.

Republicans in other states should pay attention to Tuesday’s results. They have been zealously passing bans in states such as Kentucky and Louisiana, and severely restricting access in others such as Florida. There is still time for lawmakers in some states to heed the warning from Kansas. . . .

In the wake of Kansas, states should also consider how abortion bans affect the medical profession. Wisner emphasizes that the mental health toll on doctors and other medical personnel, already stressed to the breaking point with covid, will increase as their caseloads rise dramatically in abortion-safe states. In red states, they’ll be forced to weigh the needs of patients against their own risk of prosecution. She expects “burnout” to escalate.

Kansas, however, provides an alternative outcome to the parade of disasters. Voters there have sounded a wake-up call for lawmakers to consider not only the unpopularity of bans but also the wave of suffering they will unleash. The Kansas vote should prompt states to pause before joining the forced-birth movement.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Dems Should Be Buoyed By Georgia / S. Carolina Results





I'm sure there are many Democrats disappointed by the results in the 6th Congressional District of Georgia. They had hoped to pull off a miraculous victory, and the political polls had them thinking it could be done. But the Democratic candidate fell short, and that district returned a Republican to Congress.

But this is not a time for Republicans to celebrate, and it's not a time for Democrats to feel down and give up. Let's recap what has happened in the four House special elections this year. Yes, the Democrats lost all four of them -- but they came much closer in all of them than anyone had expected.

In Kansas, the Democrats cut a 31.1 point margin for the Republicans in 2016 down to only 6.8 points.

In Montana, the Democrats cut a 15.8 point margin for Republicans in 2016 down to only 6.1 points.

In South Carolina, the Democrats cut a 20.5 point margin for Republicans in 2016 down to only 3.2 points.

In Georgia, the Democrats cut a 23.4 point margin for Republicans in 2016 down to only 5.2 points.

And remember, these were supposed to be "safe" districts for Republicans -- districts in which they traditionally won with large double-digit margins. Those large double-digit margins disappeared, and those "safe" seats all turned out to be competitive.

This should scare the hell out of Republicans, and it should energize Democrats across the nation. There are dozens of Republicans currently occupying purple seats -- seats they won by a much smaller margin in 2016. If the Democrats do as well in those purple districts as they did in these four bright red districts, then they could win a whole lot of them in 2018 -- and possibly even take over the majority in the House of Representatives.

Take heart Democrats -- the tide of public opinion is turning your way.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

It Is Not A Time For Democrats To Celebrate (Yet)


The pie chart above reflects the results of a new Rasmussen Poll -- done between April 13th and 16th of a random national sample of 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error. It shows that about half of the public thinks the job being done by the Republican-dominated 115th Congress is hurting the chances of Republican candidates this year. Only 25% think those candidates are helped, and 25% think it will have no impact or are unsure of the impact.

Some Democrats may think that is cause for celebration, especially when combined with the performance of the Democratic candidates in Kansas and Georgia special elections. I disagree.

In the Kansas special election to fill a vacant House seat, the Democratic candidate lost to the Republican candidate by about 6.8 points. The normal difference in that House district is about 30 points in favor of the Republicans. Some Democrats see that as a cause for celebration. But at best it's a pyrrhic victory.

Close may be good in horseshoes and hand grenades, but it is meaningless in electoral politics. Getting close only means one things in politics -- you lost! And it doesn't matter if you lose by 0.1% or by 30%, it's still a loss. The Kansas special election just means that another Republican went to Washington (regardless of his winning margin).

Then we have the Georgia special election to fill another vacant House seat. I've seen many Democrats celebrating the Democratic candidate finishing first in a large field of candidates. But that's no surprise -- since he was the only Democrat running against several Republicans (who split the GOP vote). Everyone expected him to finish first. But sadly, he did not get the 50% needed to win that seat. Their will be a run-off in June, and he will have only one Republican opponent.

Projections are that it will be a close race in June -- and it will depend on which party is best at turning out their voters. There is a chance the Democrat can still win, but it's a slim one with only one GOP opponent in a district that Republicans have won for decades.

My point is that, at least so far, there is nothing to celebrate. The Democrats have not picked up any seats in these special elections. If coming close is now a reason for Democrats to celebrate, then our party is truly in sad shape. Coming close doesn't accomplish what we need -- to flip this Congress to Democratic control.

When we start winning some Republican seats, then it will be time to celebrate.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Democrats Need To Put More Emphasis On Senate Races


The chart above shows the poll averages (from RealClearPolitics) in 12 states with a Republican senator up for re-election this year. The Democrats need to take five of these seats to once again control the U.S. Senate.

Currently, Democrats have a significant lead in two of those races -- Wisconsin and Illinois. They are close in four other states, with some polls showing them leading and some showing them behind -- Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Nevada. The other six races seem to be favoring Republicans rather significantly right now --Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, and Arkansas.

If Hillary Clinton is elected, and I think she will be, she is going to need the Senate to be controlled by Democrats. Without that, she won't be able to do much. The Republicans will just do four years of obstructing anything she tries to do (just like they have done for the last few years to President Obama).

It seems obvious to me that the Democrats need to put more emphasis on many of these Senate seats.

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Is Kansas The GOP's "Canary In The Mine" ?


The chart above was made using information from a new Zogby Poll -- done between June 4th and 6th of a random sample of 433 registered voters in Kansas, with a margin of error of 4.7 points.

The state of Kansas has not voted for a Democrat for president since 1964 (when it voted for Lyndon Johnson). That's 52 years of voting solidly Republican for the White House, and makes Kansas one of the most Republican states in the nation. But that run could be over.

The new Zogby Poll shows that currently a plurality of Kansas voters are ready to vote for Hillary Clinton. Republicans (and Donald Trump) should take this as a serious warning sign. There is still several months before the election, and that's plenty of time to turn this around -- but it does show that the GOP has some big problems right now. If they can't win in Kansas, then where can they win?

Sunday, March 06, 2016

Kansas, Nebraska, Louisiana Democrats Make Their Choice


Democratic voters made their preferences for president known on Saturday in Kansas (caucus), Nebraska (caucus), and Louisiana (primary). Kansas has 37 delegates, Nebraska has 30 delegates, and Louisiana has 59 delegates.

Bernie Sanders won Kansas by about 35 points, and Nebraska by about 14 points. This will likely give Sanders a 13 delegate edge in Kansas and about a 5 delegate edge in Nebraska. But Hillary Clinton won Louisiana by about 48 points, and since Louisiana had nearly twice the delegates of the other two states, will easily cover her delegate shortage and more.

Bernie won a moral victory by taking two out of the three states, but Hillary won the more important delegate victory -- and increases her overall delegate lead.

Here are the results in each state:

KANSAS

Clinton...............12,593 (32.3%)
Sanders...............26,450 (67.7%)

NEBRASKA

Clinton...............11,293 (43.4%)
Sanders...............14,711 (56.6%)

LOUISIANA

Clinton...............221,102 (71.2%)
Sanders...............71,900 (23.1%)

And here are the current delegate totals:

Clinton...............1121
Sanders...............479

Sunday, February 15, 2015

Right-Wing Still Refuses Equal Rights For LGBT Community


It is now becoming obvious that right-wing religious nuts, through their Republican elected officials, won't be able to prevent same-sex marriages anymore. But that doesn't mean they are ready to give members of the LGBT (lesbian, gay, bi-sexual, transgender) community rights equal to all other Americans. The map below shows the states where employers can't discriminate against members of the LGBT community. Note that less than half of all states not ban workplace discrimination, while some other ban it only for state employment.

But that doesn't mean the right is not trying to repeal the few rights in the workplace that the LGBT community currently has. Governor Brownback of Kansas just signed an executive order removing the right of Gays/lesbians in that state employed by the state. That means they can now be fired just for being homosexual. And Arkansas has gone further -- passing a bill that would deny its cities and counties from passing anti-discrimination laws. And these are not the only states -- many Republican states are currently introducing anti-homosexual laws.

The really crazy part of this is that the public opposes workplace discrimination much more than it supports same-sex marriage. Not the chart below (from a June YouGov Poll). Note that an overwhelming majority of Americans (76%) thinks it should be illegal for any employer (public or private) to fire a person for being LGBT. And this huge majority scans the demographic spectrum on sex, age, race, income, region, or political preference (including 71% in the red-state South, and 68% of Republicans).

The right-wing politicians may be pleasing a few fundamentalist teabaggers, but they are putting themselves in opposition to the vast majority of Americans. It seems like the Republican officials are going out of their way to make sure most Americans won't like them.



 LGBT employment discrimination law in the United States    Sexual orientation and gender identity: all employment    Sexual orientation: all employment    Sexual orientation and gender identity: state employment    Sexual orientation: state employment    No state-level protection for LGBT employees

Thursday, November 13, 2014

More Victories For Equal Marriage Rights


Another small victory for equal rights was accomplished on Wednesday as a federal judge in Charleston (South Carolina) ruled that the state's ban on same-sex marriages violated the United States Constitution, and infringed on the rights of same-sex couples. The judge stayed his own ruling for eight days, presumably to give the state time to appeal and ask for a stay, so same-sex couples won't be able to marry in South Carolina until November 20th.

The chance that the judge's stay might be extended dwindled though, as a new U.S. Supreme Court action became public. A few days ago, Justice Sotomayor issued a stay in the decision by a Kansas judge that same-sex marriage should be allowed in that state (probably because she wanted to get the full court to act). And on Wednesday, the full court did act -- overturning the action by Sotomayor and lifting the stay for Kansas (although Justices Scalia and Thomas indicated they would have left the stay in place). Same-sex couples in Kansas can now marry.

The Supreme Court will probably have to finally rule on whether same-sex marriage bans violate the Constitution or not -- since the decision of the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals that states can legally discriminate is in opposition to ruling from the 4th, 7th, 9th, and 10th Circuit Courts of Appeals that states cannot discriminate by banning same-sex marriages.

This new action by the court in lifting the stay in Kansas gives us an idea of how the court may be leaning -- especially when coupled with the court's refusal to accept appeals of the decisions by the 4th, 7th, 9th, and 10th Circuit Courts of Appeals. It's looking more and more like the Supreme Court is poised to uphold the Fourteenth Amendment, and rule that state bans on same-sex marriage do violate the Constitution.