Biden Leads Trump In Three Important Swing States

The chart above reflects the results of a recent Public Policy Polling survey in three important swing states. Between September 25th and 27th, they interviewed 679 Michigan voters, 673 Pennsylvania voters, and 673 Wisconsin voters. The margin of error was 3.8 points in all three states.

CNN Poll - Biden Leading In Arizona, Florida, & Michigan

The charts above reflect the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between July 18th and 24th of 873 registered voters in Arizona, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

The charts above reflect the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between July 18th and 24th of 880 registered voters in Florida, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

The charts above reflect the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between July 18th and 24th of 927 registered voters in Michigan, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

Fox Poll Has Joe Biden Leading Donald Trump By Large Margins In Michigan, Minnesota, & Pennsylvania

The chart above reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between July 18th and 20th of a sample of 756 Michigan voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between July 18th and 20th of a sample of 776 Minnesota voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the Fox New Poll -- done between July 18th and 20th of a sample of 793 Pennsylvania voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

Donald Trump is trailing badly in these important battleground states -- by 9 points in Michigan, by 13 points in Minnesota, and by 11 points in Pennsylvania. Trump carried Michigan and Pennsylvania by a tiny margin in 2016, and must do that again to be re-elected. But he has a lot of work to do to catch up with Biden in those states.

New Poll Shows Trump Losing Ground In Battleground States

These charts are from the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between June 8th and 18th of 3,870 registered voters in Battleground States (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina). The poll's margin of error for all the states is 1.8 points -- and for each state is between 4.1 and 4.6 points.

Trump won all six of these states in 2016, and that allowed him to squeak out an Electoral College win. But it is distinctly possible that he could lose all of them this year. He's looking more and more like a one term president.

New Iowa, Florida, & Michigan Polls Have Trump In Trouble

This chart reflects the results of the Des Moines Register / Mediacom Iowa Poll -- done between June 7th and 10th of 674 likely Iowa voters, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the American Greatness / TIPP Battleground Poll -- done between June 9th and 11th of 910 registered voters in Florida.

This chart reflects the results of the Detroit Free Press / EPIC-MRA Poll -- done between May 31st and June 4th of 600 likely Michigan voters, with a 4 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the American Greatness / TIPP Battleground Poll -- done between June 9th and 12th of 907 registered Michigan voters.

If these polls are correct, then Trump is sinking fast. He's in a dead heat with Biden in Iowa -- a state he won by 9 points in 2016. He is 10 points behind Biden in Florida. And two polls in Michigan show him 16 points and 13 points behind Biden.

Biden Leads By 8 Points In Michigan And Pennsylvania

This chart is from a new Fox News Poll -- done between April 18th and 21st of 801 Michigan voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

This chart is fro a new Fox News Poll -- done between April 18th and 21st of 803 Pennsylvania voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

These are both battleground states that Trump carried in 2016. He needs to win them again to stay in the White House, but currently trails Joe Biden by 8 points in both states.

Biden Has A Great Night - Extends His Delegate Lead

Bernie Sanders needed a big night in the March 10th primaries. He didn't get it. The big night went to Joe Biden.

Biden started the night with wins in Mississippi, Missouri, and Michigan -- all by large margins. These states helped Biden to significantly increase his lead in delegates.

As I write this, Biden is also leading in Idaho, and trailing in North Dakota. In Washington, Biden and Sanders are nearly dead even. Regardless of who finally wins these three states, neither candidate will show a significant lead in delegates from them.

There are still about half of the states that have not yet held their primaries, but things are getting critical for Sanders. Another 500 or so delegates will be up for grabs on March 17th. If Sanders doesn't cut down Biden's delegate lead than, it will be hard to see a path for him to win the nomination.

Democratic Polls For Arizona, Michigan, And Washington

The chart above reflects the results of the latest OH Predictive Insights Poll -- done on March 3rd and 4th of 398 likely Democratic voters in Arizona, with a 4.9 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the latest Detroit Free Press / EPIC-MRA Poll -- done between March 4th and 6th of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, with a 4.9 point margin of error.

The chart above shows the results of two recent polls in Washington state. The KING 5 News Poll was done between March 4th and 6th of 500 likely Democratic voters.

The Data for Progress Poll was done recently of 717 likely Democratic voters.

Trump Is Not Doing Well In Four Critical Swing States

These charts reflect the results of the Cook Political Report / Kaiser Family Foundation Poll -- done between September 23rd and October 15th of registered voters in four battleground states. They questioned 767 voters in Michigan, 958 voters in Minnesota, 752 voters in Pennsylvania, and 745 voters in Wisconsin. The margin of error was 4 points in all four states.

These four states are going to be critical for both parties in the 2020 general election. In 2016, Trump won three of them and finished close in the other. He will need to repeat that performance to get re-elected.

Right now, it doesn't look like he could do that. The voters in all four states don't approve of the job he is doing. They also disapprove of how he's handling healthcare, immigration, foreign trade, and foreign policy -- and they are split on how he's handling the economy.

Trump is going to have to do a lot better than this in these states to get re-elected.

All Four Leading Democrats Would Beat Trump In Michigan

One of the things that put Trump over the top in 2016 was winning Michigan by a razor thin margin. It doesn't look like that will happen in 2020 -- assuming that Democrats can get their voters to the polls. And I think they will. While too many sat on their hands in 2016 (assuming Clinton would win without them), I think the disastrous Trump administration will bring them out in droves in 2020.

And that would be very good for Democrats. A new poll shows all four leading Democratic presidential candidates would beat Donald Trump -- Joe Biden by 10 points, Elizabeth Warren by 6 points, Bernie Sanders by 4 points, and Kamala Harris by 3 points.

The chart above reflects the results of a new EPIC-MRA / Detroit Free Press Poll -- done between August 17th and 21st of 600 active and likely Michigan voters, with a margin of error of 4 points.

Biden Holds A Huge Lead Over Trump In Michigan

The chart above is from the latest EPIC-MRA / Detroit Free Press Poll. The poll was done between June 8th and 12th of a sample of 600 likely Michigan voters, and has a 4 point margin of error.

It shows that currently Trump would do very poorly against Joe Biden in Michigan. Biden has an 11 point lead (52% to 41%).

Trump Is Losing The Upper Midwest (Bigly!)

In 2016, Trump won the state of Michigan by only 11,000 votes (out of about 4.8 million votes cast), and won the state of Wisconsin by only 23,000 votes (out of about 2.98 million votes cast). If he had lost either of these states, he would not be living in the White House -- and he needs to keep those states in his column to have any chance of being re-elected. In addition, he lost in Minnesota by a razor-thin margin -- giving the GOP hope he could carry that state in the future.

How is Trump doing in those states after 18 months in office. Not good! Not good at all! A new poll shows he is far behind in all three states right now in job approval. In Michigan,  the public disapproves of him by an 18 point margin. In Wisconsin, the public disapproves of him by a 16 point margin. And in Minnesota, the public disapproves of him by a 13 point margin.

The poll also shows that  Trump has no coattails for Republicans to cling to in these states. In the coming election, Democrats are favored over Republicans by 9 points in Michigan, by 8 points in Wisconsin, and by 12 points in Minnesota.

And none of those states thinks Trump deserves to be re-elected in 2020. In Michigan, he is opposed by a 34 point margin, in Wisconsin by a 32 point margin, and in Minnesota by a 30 point margin.

Michigan and Wisconsin are purple states (leaning toward blue) and Minnesota is a fairly reliable blue state. It was a real surprise (at least to me) that Trump did so well in all three in 2016. But it looks like they have now come to their senses.

The liver-caller NBC/Marist polls were conducted July 15-19 among respondents contacted by both landline and cell phone.

The margin of error for the 886 registered voters in Michigan is plus-minus 3.9 percentage points. The margin of error for the 876 registered voters in Minnesota is plus-minus 4.0 percentage points. And the margin of error of the 906 registered voters in Wisconsin is plus-minus 3.8 percentage points.

Trump Is Losing Now In Michigan, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin

Although Donald Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, he did get enough electoral college votes to make him president. That was because he won three states that almost no one thought he would win -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

But that was last November. It looks like things have changed in those three states after a few months of his presidency. In Michigan, only 36% approve of the job he is doing while 55% disapprove. In Pennsylvania, about 33% approve while 52% disapprove. And in Wisconsin, about33% approve while 56% disapprove.

Those are some really terrible numbers, and unless Trump can improve them, there is little chance he could again carry those states. It also means he will have no coattails to help GOP candidates in 2018.

The Marist Michigan Poll was done between August 13th and 17th of a random state sample of 907 adults, and has a 3.3 point margin of error.

The Marist Pennsylvania Poll was done between August 13th and 17th of a random state sample of 915 adults, and has a 3.2 point margin of error.

The Marist Wisconsin Poll was done between August 13th and 17th of a random state sample of 910 adults, and has a 3.2 point margin of error.

New Presidential Polls For Michigan And Mississippi

Donald Trump had hoped to take the state of Michigan with the help of white blue-collar workers, but it doesn't look like that will happen. He trails Clinton in Michigan by 10 points. He does still have a large 13 point lead in the very red state of Mississippi though.

The Fox 2 Detroit / Mitchell Poll was done on August 9th and 10th of a sample of 1,314 likely Michigan voters, and has a margin of error of 2.7 points.

The Y'all Politics / Magellan Strategies Poll was done on August 11th of a random sample of 1,084 likely Mississippi voters, with a margin of error of 2.9 points.

Clinton Takes The Lead In Four Battleground States

Hillary Clinton is not just leading in the national polls. Four new polls in battleground states (states some think Republicans could win) show she has only jumped out to a lead in those states -- Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

The new polls give Clinton a 4.4 point lead in Florida, a 13 point lead in Pennsylvania, a 9.4 point lead in Michigan, and a 15 point lead in New Hampshire. This has to be disheartening news for Trump, because he must win in these states (especially Florida and Pennsylvania) to capture the presidency.

The polls are:

New Hampshire -- WBUR / MassINC Poll

Michigan -- Detroit News / WDIV Poll

Pennsylvania -- Franklin & Marshall College Poll

Florida -- Suffolk University Poll

Rust Belt Middle Income Voters Are With Hillary Clinton

The cable news networks are all abuzz with the idea that Donald Trump will steal middle income (union) workers in the Rust Belt away from the Democrats (and Hillary Clinton). But as the top chart shows, that is not true -- at least for now. In the states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, those middle income voters still prefer Clinton over Trump by a 7 point margin.

The chart was made using results from a Bloomberg Politics / Purple Insights Poll -- done between May 18th and 24th of a sample of 803 middle income voters ($30k - $75k), with a margin of error of 3.5 points.

As the bottom chart shows, a plurality of those voters also expect Hillary Clinton to win the presidency.

Michigan / Mississippi Dems Cast Their Votes For President

Democratic voters in Mississippi and Michigan went to the polls on Tuesday to choose whether they want Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders to be their party's nominee in the November general election.

Mississippi was no surprise. Hillary Clinton won big there as expected, and will walk away with most of that state's delegates.

The surprise of the night was in Michigan. Most polls had Hillary Clinton winning that state, but Bernie Sanders did very well there -- and thanks to proportional allocation of delegates, Sanders and Clinton will pretty much split the delegates in Michigan. Sanders did win the state, but by only a 2 point margin.

Sanders and his supporters can justifiably be proud of their strong showing in Michigan. But like last weekend, this is more of a moral victory than a real one -- because Clinton's strong showing in Mississippi will insure she wins the majority of the delegates decided on Tuesday.

Here are the results for Tuesday night:

MISSISSIPPI

Clinton...............181,978 (82.6%)
Sanders...............36,249 (16.5%)

MICHIGAN

Clinton...............549,922 (48.0%)
Sanders...............573,337 (50.1%)

And here is the latest delegate count:

Clinton...............1220
Sanders...............571

Clinton Should Do Very Well In March 8th Primaries

Democrats in two states will make their presidential choice know tomorrow (March 8th). Michigan has 147 delegates, and 130 of them are up for grabs Tuesday. Mississippi has 41 delegates, and 36 of them will be decided by voters on Tuesday.

This should be a day when Hillary Clinton adds to her already substantial delegate lead -- since she is leading by large margins in both states (and they are primaries -- not caucuses).

Three recent polls are out for Michigan. They are:

American Research Group Poll (March 4-5) 400 likely voters (5.0 point moe).

NBC News / WSJ / Marist Poll (March 1-3) 546 likely voters (4.2 point moe).

CBS News / YouGov Poll (March 2-4) 597 likely voters (7.7 point moe).

They show Clinton with between a lead of between 11 and 24 points.

The chart below shows the results of the last known Mississippi poll. It shows Clinton with a 41 point lead.

Magellan Strategies Poll (February 29) 471 likely voters (4.5 point moe).

New Dem Polls For Louisiana, Michigan, And Mississippi

It looks like Hillary Clinton is in pretty good shape in these three state, who will all be voting in the next few days.

Louisiana - Magellan Strategies (March 1) 865 likely voters (3.3 point moe).

Michigan - Fox 2 Detroit / Mitchell (March 1) 427 likely voters (4.7 point moe).

Mississippi - Magellan Strategies (February 29) 471 likely voters (4.5 point moe).

Arkansas, Michigan & N. Carolina Strong For Clinton

Now that voters in Iowa and New Hampshire have made their decision, we move on to other states -- and three of those states voting in the next month are Arkansas (on March 1st), Michigan (on March 8th), and North Carolina (on March 15th). Hillary Clinton still looks very strong in those three states -- leading Sanders by 32 points in Arkansas, by 32 points in Michigan, and by 26 points in North Carolina.

The Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College Poll was done on February 4th of a random sample of 451 Arkansas Democrats, with a margin of error of 3.3 points.

The IMP/Target Insyght Poll was done between February 2nd and 4th of a random sample of 400 Michigan Democrats, and has a margin of error of 5 points.

The High Point University Poll was done between January 30th and February 4th of a random sample of 478 North Carolina Democrats, with a margin of error of 4.5 points.