Trump Is Losing The Upper Midwest (Bigly!)

In 2016, Trump won the state of Michigan by only 11,000 votes (out of about 4.8 million votes cast), and won the state of Wisconsin by only 23,000 votes (out of about 2.98 million votes cast). If he had lost either of these states, he would not be living in the White House -- and he needs to keep those states in his column to have any chance of being re-elected. In addition, he lost in Minnesota by a razor-thin margin -- giving the GOP hope he could carry that state in the future.

How is Trump doing in those states after 18 months in office. Not good! Not good at all! A new poll shows he is far behind in all three states right now in job approval. In Michigan,  the public disapproves of him by an 18 point margin. In Wisconsin, the public disapproves of him by a 16 point margin. And in Minnesota, the public disapproves of him by a 13 point margin.

The poll also shows that  Trump has no coattails for Republicans to cling to in these states. In the coming election, Democrats are favored over Republicans by 9 points in Michigan, by 8 points in Wisconsin, and by 12 points in Minnesota.

And none of those states thinks Trump deserves to be re-elected in 2020. In Michigan, he is opposed by a 34 point margin, in Wisconsin by a 32 point margin, and in Minnesota by a 30 point margin.

Michigan and Wisconsin are purple states (leaning toward blue) and Minnesota is a fairly reliable blue state. It was a real surprise (at least to me) that Trump did so well in all three in 2016. But it looks like they have now come to their senses.

The liver-caller NBC/Marist polls were conducted July 15-19 among respondents contacted by both landline and cell phone.

The margin of error for the 886 registered voters in Michigan is plus-minus 3.9 percentage points. The margin of error for the 876 registered voters in Minnesota is plus-minus 4.0 percentage points. And the margin of error of the 906 registered voters in Wisconsin is plus-minus 3.8 percentage points.