New Poll Shows Biden Leading In Wisconsin

 

The chart above reflects the results of the latest Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between May 2nd and 6th of a sample of 1,457 registered voters in Wisconsin, with a 2.6 point margin of error.

Biden Leads Trump In Three Important Swing States

The chart above reflects the results of a recent Public Policy Polling survey in three important swing states. Between September 25th and 27th, they interviewed 679 Michigan voters, 673 Pennsylvania voters, and 673 Wisconsin voters. The margin of error was 3.8 points in all three states.

NYT/Siena Poll Shows Biden Leading Four Battleground States

 

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 11th of 445 likely New Hampshire voters, with a 5.5 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of 760 likely voters in Wisconsin, with a 4.7 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of 462 likely Nevada Voters, with a 5.3 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the new New York Times /Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of 814 likely voters in Minnesota, with a 3.9 point margin of error.

New Poll Shows Trump Losing Ground In Battleground States

These charts are from the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between June 8th and 18th of 3,870 registered voters in Battleground States (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina). The poll's margin of error for all the states is 1.8 points -- and for each state is between 4.1 and 4.6 points.

Trump won all six of these states in 2016, and that allowed him to squeak out an Electoral College win. But it is distinctly possible that he could lose all of them this year. He's looking more and more like a one term president.

These 5 Charts Should Worry Trump And Republicans

This chart reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between May 30th and June second of 1,002 Arizona voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between May 30th and June 2nd of 801 Wisconsin voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between May 30th and June 2nd of 803 Ohio voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of a Public Policy Polling survey -- done on June 2nd and 3rd of 949 North Carolina voters.

This chart reflects the results of a Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between May 28th and June 1st of 1,166 Texas voters, with a 2.9 point margin of error.

In 2016, Donald Trump carried all five of these states. But polls are showing he could lose all five of them in 2020. He is trailing by 4 points in Arizona, by 9 points in Wisconsin, by 2 points in Ohio, by 4 points in North Carolina, and has only a 1 point advantage in Texas.

Sanders Endorses Biden - Urges Voters To Elect Him

Senator Bernie Sanders didn't repeat his mistake of 2016. On Monday, he appeared on a Biden virtual campaign event and gave him his endorsement for president. He said:

“Today I am asking all Americans. I’m asking every Democrat, I’m asking every independent, I’m asking a lot of Republicans to come together in this campaign to support your candidacy, which I endorse, to make certain that we defeat somebody who I believe, and I'm speaking just for myself, now is the most dangerous president in the modern history of this country."

“We’ve got to make Trump a one-term president, and we need you in the White House." 

“I will do all that I can to see that that happens. It's imperative that all of us work together to do what has to be done. Not only in this moment, but beyond this moment in the future of this country."

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It probably doesn't matter much anymore, since the Democrats seem to have their presidential nominee (Joe Biden), but the state of Wisconsin released the vote totals on Monday from last weeks primary. Here's how it came out (with 95% of the votes counted).

Joe Biden..............63.4%
Bernie Sanders...............31.3%

At the same time as the primary, there was also an election for a slot on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. It was expected that the far-right candidate, Daniel Kelly (backed by Donald Trump), would win a slim victory over liberal Jill Karofsky. But Wisconsin voters had a different idea. They elected Karofsky (54% to 46%).

Court Overrules Gov. - Wisconsin Holds Dangerous Primary

(This photo of Wisconsin voters lining up to vote is from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.)

The primary in Wisconsin looks like a political game of ping-pong. The governor (Tony Evers) had tried to get the primary delayed due to the Coronavirus pandemic. But the Republicans in the legislature blocked that. After the legislature adjourned so no action could be taken, the governor finally acted on his own. He delayed the primary until June 9th.

But the legislature wasn't going to take that lying down. They appealed the governor's action to the state's Supreme Court. That court, dominated by Republicans, overruled the governor and said the primary must be held on April 7th.

So, in spite of the pandemic, the primary was held yesterday in Wisconsin. It was, as one website reported, probably the most dangerous election held in this country. But the voters turned out anyway.

The results won't be known for a while. The court ruled that any mail-in ballots postmarked by April 7th and arriving by April 13th )next Monday) must be counted, So the election officials have said no voting totals will be released until April 13th.

Wisconsin Governor Delays The Primary Until June

I had thought Wisconsin would be having their primary today, but at the last minute Governor Tony Evers (pictured) delayed the primary until June 9th. Evers had been saying for weeks that he did not have the authority to delay the primary, but after the legislature refused to delay it, he changed his mind and did it.

About 1.2 million residents of the state had already requested absentee (mail-in) ballots, and Governor Evers said voters could continue to request those ballots until the new primary date.

Wisconsin Primary Is Today - Will Democrats Show Up?

The chart above reflects the results of the Marquette Law School Poll -- done between March 24th and 29th of about 380 likely Democratic primary voters.

As you can see, Joe Biden enjoys a 28 point lead over Bernie Sanders in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin's governor wanted to delay the election and institute a vote-by-mail system. The Republicans in the state legislature seem to have killed that idea, so it looks like Wisconsin Democrats will vote on Tuesday.

In a normal time, there is little doubt that Biden would easily cruise to victory, even though Sanders won the state in 2016. But these are not normal times, and the Coronavirus epidemic could affect the primary. Will Democrats turn out in large numbers? Or will they stay at hone -- figuring the election is over and opt to protect themselves from the virus?

If it is the latter, the primary could be much closer. It will be interesting to see what the Wisconsin voters choose to do.

Sen. Ron Johnson - Portrait Of An Uncaring Republican

“Getting coronavirus is not a death sentence except for maybe no more than 3.4 percent of our population… probably far less. We don’t shut down our economy because tens of thousands of people die on the highways.”

Those are the words of Senator Ron Johnson -- the Republican senator from Wisconsin. Frankly, I am shocked by his attitude. Does he really not care that we could lose 3.4% of the population?

Maybe he failed math in school. But in a nation of 330 million people, 3.4% of the population is not "tens of thousands" -- it is 11.2 million people. If we lost only 1%, it would be 3.3 million people.

I'll give Johnson the benefit of the doubt, and figure he was talking about only those who actually contracted the disease. If half the the population got the disease, the death toll would be about about 5.61 million at 3.4%, and 1.65 million for 1%.

Say only 25% of the population got the virus (which is very likely), that would still be 2.8 million deaths at 3.4% and 825,000 deaths at 1%.

Those are still NOT ACCEPTABLE FIGURES, and I can't believe a U.S. senator (any senator) would believe they were.

Trump Is Not Doing Well In Four Critical Swing States

These charts reflect the results of the Cook Political Report / Kaiser Family Foundation Poll -- done between September 23rd and October 15th of registered voters in four battleground states. They questioned 767 voters in Michigan, 958 voters in Minnesota, 752 voters in Pennsylvania, and 745 voters in Wisconsin. The margin of error was 4 points in all four states.

These four states are going to be critical for both parties in the 2020 general election. In 2016, Trump won three of them and finished close in the other. He will need to repeat that performance to get re-elected.

Right now, it doesn't look like he could do that. The voters in all four states don't approve of the job he is doing. They also disapprove of how he's handling healthcare, immigration, foreign trade, and foreign policy -- and they are split on how he's handling the economy.

Trump is going to have to do a lot better than this in these states to get re-elected.

Trump Unlikely To Win In Wisconsin In 2020

One of the surprise states that Donald Trump won in 2016. But he has a lot of damage control to do if he wants to repeat that. Right now, Wisconsin is not looking very good for him. He has a 10 point negative gap in job approval, and a 9 point negative gap against a generic Democratic opponent. In addition, the Wisconsin public trusts Democrats more by 10 points on health care. And those voters oppose Trump's desire to cut Medicaid and Medicare by a whopping 50 point gap.

The charts above are from a new Public Policy Polling survey -- done on April 22nd and 23rd of 762 Wisconsin voters, and has a margin of error of 3.6 points.

Trump Is Losing The Upper Midwest (Bigly!)

In 2016, Trump won the state of Michigan by only 11,000 votes (out of about 4.8 million votes cast), and won the state of Wisconsin by only 23,000 votes (out of about 2.98 million votes cast). If he had lost either of these states, he would not be living in the White House -- and he needs to keep those states in his column to have any chance of being re-elected. In addition, he lost in Minnesota by a razor-thin margin -- giving the GOP hope he could carry that state in the future.

How is Trump doing in those states after 18 months in office. Not good! Not good at all! A new poll shows he is far behind in all three states right now in job approval. In Michigan,  the public disapproves of him by an 18 point margin. In Wisconsin, the public disapproves of him by a 16 point margin. And in Minnesota, the public disapproves of him by a 13 point margin.

The poll also shows that  Trump has no coattails for Republicans to cling to in these states. In the coming election, Democrats are favored over Republicans by 9 points in Michigan, by 8 points in Wisconsin, and by 12 points in Minnesota.

And none of those states thinks Trump deserves to be re-elected in 2020. In Michigan, he is opposed by a 34 point margin, in Wisconsin by a 32 point margin, and in Minnesota by a 30 point margin.

Michigan and Wisconsin are purple states (leaning toward blue) and Minnesota is a fairly reliable blue state. It was a real surprise (at least to me) that Trump did so well in all three in 2016. But it looks like they have now come to their senses.

The liver-caller NBC/Marist polls were conducted July 15-19 among respondents contacted by both landline and cell phone.

The margin of error for the 886 registered voters in Michigan is plus-minus 3.9 percentage points. The margin of error for the 876 registered voters in Minnesota is plus-minus 4.0 percentage points. And the margin of error of the 906 registered voters in Wisconsin is plus-minus 3.8 percentage points.

Progressive Or Conservative - Which Is Best For Citizens ?

 The two competing political philosophies in the United States are progressivism and conservatism. Democrats will tell you that the progressive way is best for most people, and Republicans will tell you the conservative way is best. Who is right?

We can get a clue as to the answer by looking at two neighboring states. Both had economies that were similar, but in 2010 took very different paths. Minnesota elected a Democratic governor who initiated progressive policies, while Wisconsin elected a Republican governor who initiated conservative policies. Which turned out better?

David Cooper, a researcher at the Economic Policy Institute, has done a study of the two states. The entire study is well worth reading, but here is the summary of that study, showing what he found:

Since the 2010 election of Governor Scott Walker in Wisconsin and Governor Mark Dayton in Minnesota, lawmakers in these two neighboring states have enacted vastly different policy agendas. Governor Walker and the Wisconsin state legislature have pursued a highly conservative agenda centered on cutting taxes, shrinking government, and weakening unions. In contrast, Minnesota under Governor Dayton has enacted a slate of progressive priorities: raising the minimum wage, strengthening safety net programs and labor standards, and boosting public investments in infrastructure and education, financed through higher taxes (largely on the wealthy).

Because of the proximity and many similarities of these two states, comparing economic performance in the Badger State (WI) versus the Gopher State (MN) provides a compelling case study for assessing which agenda leads to better outcomes for working people and their families. Now, seven years removed from when each governor took office, there is ample data to assess which state’s economy—and by extension, which set of policies—delivered more for the welfare of its residents. The results could not be more clear: by virtually every available measure, Minnesota’s recovery has outperformed Wisconsin’s. . . .

Key findings include:

• Job growth since December 2010 has been markedly stronger in Minnesota than Wisconsin, with Minnesota experiencing 11.0 percent growth in total nonfarm employment, compared with only 7.9 percent growth in Wisconsin. Minnesota’s job growth was better than Wisconsin’s in the overall private sector (12.5 percent vs. 9.7 percent) and in higher-wage industries, such as construction (38.6 percent vs. 26.0 percent) and education and health care (17.3 percent vs. 11.0 percent).
• From 2010 to 2017, wages grew faster in Minnesota than in Wisconsin at every decile in the wage distribution. Low-wage workers experienced much stronger growth in Minnesota than Wisconsin, with inflation-adjusted wages at the 10th and 20th percentile rising by 8.6 percent and 9.7 percent, respectively, in Minnesota vs. 6.3 percent and 6.4 percent in Wisconsin.
• Gender wage gaps also shrank more in Minnesota than in Wisconsin. From 2010 to 2017, women’s median wage as a share of men’s median wage rose by 3.0 percentage points in Minnesota, and by 1.5 percentage points in Wisconsin.
• Median household income in Minnesota grew by 7.2 percent from 2010 to 2016. In Wisconsin, it grew by 5.1 percent over the same period. Median family income exhibited a similar pattern, growing 8.5 percent in Minnesota compared with 6.4 percent in Wisconsin.
• Minnesota made greater progress than Wisconsin in reducing overall poverty, child poverty, and poverty as measured under the Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure. As of 2016, the overall poverty rate in Wisconsin as measured in the American Community Survey (11.8 percent) was still roughly as high as the poverty rate in Minnesota at its peak in the wake of the Great Recession (11.9 percent, in 2011).
• Minnesota residents were more likely to have health insurance than their counterparts in Wisconsin, with stronger insurance take-up of both public and private health insurance since 2010.
• From 2010 to 2017, Minnesota has had stronger overall economic growth (12.8 percent vs. 10.1 percent), stronger growth per worker (3.4 percent vs. 2.7 percent), and stronger population growth (5.1 percent vs. 1.9 percent) than Wisconsin. In fact, over the whole period—as well as in the most recent year—more people have been moving out of Wisconsin to other states than have been moving in from elsewhere in the U.S. The same is not true of Minnesota.

Trump Is Losing Now In Michigan, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin

Although Donald Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, he did get enough electoral college votes to make him president. That was because he won three states that almost no one thought he would win -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

But that was last November. It looks like things have changed in those three states after a few months of his presidency. In Michigan, only 36% approve of the job he is doing while 55% disapprove. In Pennsylvania, about 33% approve while 52% disapprove. And in Wisconsin, about33% approve while 56% disapprove.

Those are some really terrible numbers, and unless Trump can improve them, there is little chance he could again carry those states. It also means he will have no coattails to help GOP candidates in 2018.

The Marist Michigan Poll was done between August 13th and 17th of a random state sample of 907 adults, and has a 3.3 point margin of error.

The Marist Pennsylvania Poll was done between August 13th and 17th of a random state sample of 915 adults, and has a 3.2 point margin of error.

The Marist Wisconsin Poll was done between August 13th and 17th of a random state sample of 910 adults, and has a 3.2 point margin of error.

Democrats Need To Put More Emphasis On Senate Races

The chart above shows the poll averages (from RealClearPolitics) in 12 states with a Republican senator up for re-election this year. The Democrats need to take five of these seats to once again control the U.S. Senate.

Currently, Democrats have a significant lead in two of those races -- Wisconsin and Illinois. They are close in four other states, with some polls showing them leading and some showing them behind -- Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Nevada. The other six races seem to be favoring Republicans rather significantly right now --Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, and Arkansas.

If Hillary Clinton is elected, and I think she will be, she is going to need the Senate to be controlled by Democrats. Without that, she won't be able to do much. The Republicans will just do four years of obstructing anything she tries to do (just like they have done for the last few years to President Obama).

It seems obvious to me that the Democrats need to put more emphasis on many of these Senate seats.

Wisconsin Is Trending Democratic This Year

Two news polls have been taken recently of voters in Wisconsin. And they both show Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump in that state -- by 3 points in one poll and by 5 points in the other (top chart).

The Senate race looks even better for Democrats.  Former Senator Russ Fiengold is leading current Senator Ron Johnson in both polls. Feingold lost the seat to Johnson in 2010 -- when teabaggers flocked to the polls on election day, and too many Democrats stayed at home (because it was an off-year election).

But this is an election year, and the outcome looks to be very different. Feingold is leading by 3 points in one poll and by 13 points in the other. This senate seat is almost sure to flip this year.

The presidential and senate polls are from RealClearPolitics, and they are:

Monmouth University Poll -- 8/27-30, 404 likely voters (4.9 point moe)

Marquette University Poll -- 8/25-28, 650 likely voters (5 point moe)

Five Republican Senators That Could Be In Trouble

Five "swing state" Republican senators could well be in trouble in the coming election -- Ron Johnson, Kelly Ayotte, John McCain, Pat Toomey,  and Rob Portman. Johnson is trailing by 13 points to Russ Fiengold, and will probably lose.

All of the other four are virtually tied in their races (with a margin within the poll margin of error). It looks like the Democrats could well flip the Senate to their control this year.

Public Policy Polling interviewed 691 registered voters in Arizona, 578 in New Hampshire, 708 in Ohio, 980 in Pennsylvania, and 843 in Wisconsin on June 22nd and 23rd. The margins of error for the surveys are +/-3.7%, +/-4.1%, +/-3.7%, +/-3.1%, and +/-3.4% respectively. 

(The caricatures of Johnson, Ayotte, McCain, Toomey, and Portman are by DonkeyHotey.)

Rust Belt Middle Income Voters Are With Hillary Clinton

The cable news networks are all abuzz with the idea that Donald Trump will steal middle income (union) workers in the Rust Belt away from the Democrats (and Hillary Clinton). But as the top chart shows, that is not true -- at least for now. In the states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, those middle income voters still prefer Clinton over Trump by a 7 point margin.

The chart was made using results from a Bloomberg Politics / Purple Insights Poll -- done between May 18th and 24th of a sample of 803 middle income voters ($30k - $75k), with a margin of error of 3.5 points.

As the bottom chart shows, a plurality of those voters also expect Hillary Clinton to win the presidency.