Jewish Voters In The Swing States Are Solidly Democratic

 

The charts above are from the Jewish Democratic Council of America Poll -- done between September 26th and October 2nd of 800 American Jews registered to vote in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The margin of error is 3.5 points.

New Poll Shows Harris Doing Well In The Swing States

 

The Bloomberg News / Morning Consult Poll 

Harris Is Gaining Ground Fast In The Swing States

 

Kamala Harris Has Changed The Swing State Electoral Trend

 

Harris Takes A Small Swing State Lead Over Trump

 

The charts above are from the Ipsos Swing State Poll -- done between July 31st and August 7th of a swing state sample of 2,045 adults with a 3.1 point margin of error.

Kamala Harris Is Winning Back The Swing States

 The Bloomberg News / Morning Consult Poll.

Swing States Will Not Try To Overturn Biden Electoral Votes

There has been some talk about some Republican legislatures in swing states overturning the electoral vote and substituting a slate of Trump electoral voters for those won in the election. The Trump administration even reached out to some of those legislators (especially in Pennsylvania) to see if this could happen.

It was doubtful that it would happen, since it would require those legislatures to change the state law on how the electors are chosen, and some of those states have a Democratic governor who could veto the new law.

But that is no longer a possibility. According to APnews.com the Republicans in four of those swing states (Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) have said they would NOT intervene in the selection of the electors. That means the Biden slate of electors in those states will be the ones to cast the states' electoral college votes.
 

The New Surge Of Coronavirus Cases Won't Help Trump

 

The chart above (from Axios.com) shows one more thing working against Trump's re-election. Trump needs to carry all the states he did last time to be re-elected. The loss of one of the swing states he barely carried last time would mean defeat in the electoral college.

But the public believes he mishandled the Coronavirus pandemic, and they no longer believe what he is telling them about it. On top of that, there is a new surge of cases of the virus -- and much of it is in states he badly needs. States like Wisconsin (where the number of cases has climbed by 122% in the last four weeks), Pennsylvania (cases up by 117%), and Michigan (up by 162%).

Trump has been telling voters that we have "turned the corner" on the virus, but this surge just shows he is lying.

Latest National And Swing States Poll

 

The charts above are from the Morning Consult Poll. The top chart shows the national numbers, and the demographic breakdown of those numbers. The bottom chart shows how the candidates stand in the swing states.

The latest national results reflect surveys conducted with 16,045 likely voters from October 9-11, 2020. Morning Consult’s reported results reflect data among likely voters based on a 3-day moving average with a margin of error of +/- 1%. 

The latest state-level results reflect surveys conducted with between 835-4,785 likely voters per state from October 2-11. 

Biden Is Still Leading In Swing States

The two new polls fro Change Research and Morning Consult show Biden continues to lead in the swing states. Some are close, while others are not.

New polls from Change Research:

• Arizona: Biden 49%, Trump 45%
• Florida: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
• Michigan: Biden 49%, Trump 43%
• North Carolina: Biden 49%, Trump 47%
• Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 46%
• Wisconsin: Biden 50%, Trump 44%

New polls from Morning Consult:

• Arizona: Biden 49%, Trump 46%
• Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
• Michigan: Biden 52%, Trump 42%
• North Carolina: Biden 48%, Trump 47%
• Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 45%
• Wisconsin: Biden 51%, Trump 43%.

The Conventions Did Not Change The Presidential Election

The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll of swing states in this election. It compares the race in each swing state before and after the party conventions. Pre-convention polls were done between August 7th and 16th of 16,485 likely voters. The post-convention polls were done between August 21st and 30th. The margins of error for each state is between 2 and 4 points.

Unemployment Is Up Over Last Year In Some Swing States

The chart above, from The Washington Post, shows the unemployment rate in the United States by state and county according to the U.S. Labor Department. The pink/red areas are those where the unemployment rate is actually higher now than it was a year ago.

Note this includes some swing states that Trump needs to win in 2020 -- Like North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. Will this affect the next election if this trend continues (and it is likely to continue)?

Here is part of what The Washington Post reported:

Nationally, the economy looks healthy, with solid growth, stocks at record highs and an unemployment rate of 3.6 percent, near historic lows. But unemployment isn’t falling for everybody. New data released last week by the Labor Department reveals just how many places are struggling.

In more than 1,000 counties, or about one in three, the unemployment rate is higher than it was a year ago. That includes all 72 counties in Wisconsin and all 10 in New Hampshire, as well as most in Michigan, Minnesota and North Carolina. The numbers can be volatile from month to month, but this trend remains even if you look at entire quarters or years.

Trump's Net Approval Has Dropped Sharply In Crucial States

The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll, and was found at Axios.com. It shows the net approval (approval minus disapproval) in 17 states that are crucial to Donald Trump's re-election chances. Most of these are considered battleground states for the 2020 election.

The numbers on the right are Trump's net approval in those states in January of 2017 (as he took office). The numbers on the left is his net approval in July of 2019. Note that his net approval has dropped sharply in all 17 states. Currently in 15 states, he now has a negative net approval. In only two states, has he maintained a positive net approval.

These are terrible net approval numbers, and if he expects to be re-elected, he's going to have to improve them quite a bit.

NOTE -- You can go here to find the approval numbers in all the states.

Trump Is Upside-Down In 9 Of 10 Battleground States

The chart above reflects the results of recent surveys done by the Morning Consult Poll in ten battleground states. If Trump expects to be re-elected, then he must change these numbers. These states are important, and Trump can't afford to lose them in 2020.

Swing State Public Opinion Of Leading Democrats

If a Democrat is going to be elected president, then he/she will need to do well in the swing states. One way to gauge how well they would do is to look at the public's opinion of them in each of those swing states.

The charts above are from polls done by the Morning Consult Poll between April 25th and June 10th in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin.

It shows that currently Joe Biden is more popular in those states than other Democrats (except for Michigan, where Sanders leads). The other candidates have some work to do before they can be considered to be electable. But it's still early, and they have plenty of time to change public opinion.

The Blue And Red States - And The Competitive States

The map above is Taegan Goddard's Electoral Vote Map. It shows the states that he thinks (at least currently) are likely to vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate for president in 2020. The Democratic states (blue) have 224 electoral votes. The Republican states (red) have 143 electoral votes. The states in gray are considered to be competitive, and have 171 electoral votes.

If Donald Trump is to be re-elected, he will need to win 127 of the 171 electoral votes in the competitive states, while a Democrat would need to win just 46 of those votes. That gives Democrats a significant advantage, but as we learned in 2016, not an advantage that can't be overcome.

What do you think? Is the map accurate? I just have one quibble with it.

Having been born in Texas and living most of my life there, I'm not sure Texas can be listed in the competitive column. Texas is changing thanks to demographic trends, but it is still a very red state. While Trump's job approval numbers are upside-down in the state, it is not by much. And there are still more Republicans than Democrats in the state, and too many that will vote for anyone with an "R" by their name.

I like the idea of Texas being a competitive state, and I sincerely hope it is true. I'm just not yet convinced.

Poll Averages In All Of The Battleground (Swing) States

The latest poll averages from RealClearPolitics.

Poll Shows Little Reaction To FBI's New E-Mail Nonsense

The chart above shows reaction to the recent FBI Director's letter saying the investigation of Clinton would be resumed because new e-mails had been uncovered, even though none of those e-mails was written by Clinton or sent on her private server.

The chart is from the YouGov Poll. It was done on October 28th and 29th in thirteen battleground states, and has a margin of error of 1.9 points. The states were Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

It looks like the FBI's silly revelation will have little effect on the election. It hasn't changed the minds of any Clinton voters, and the Trump- voters were already opposing her. About 1/5 of the undecided and other candidate voters said it would make them less likely to vote for her. But the other candidate supporters weren't voting for her anyway, and there are very few undecided's left.

It looks like Trump's big October surprise is more of an October dud.

The Latest Average Of Polls In The Battleground States

From RealClearPolitics.

The Latest Poll Averages In Battleground States

From RealClearPolitics 

From Politico.com

From The Huffington Post