President Biden's Reaction To Arizona Approval Of 1864 Law

 

Ruben Gallego Leads In All Arizona Senate Match-Ups

These charts reflect the results of the Public Policy Polling survey -- done on October 6th and 7th of 522 Arizona voters, with a 4.3 point margin of error. 

Gallego Leads In Early Arizona Senate Race Poll

The chart above is from an O.H. Predictive Insights / Public Opinion Pulse Poll -- done between January 31st and February 9th of 1,000 registered voters in Arizona, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

Sinema Could Not Win A Democratic Primary Right Now

 

These charts are from a new Data For Progress Poll -- done between January 21st and 24th of a sample of 673 likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona, with a 4 point margin of error.

It shows that Krysten Sinema could not win a Democratic primary if it was held now. She trails her most likely opponent, Ruben Gallego, by a whopping 58 points.

She's not up for re-election until 2024, so she has some time to rehabilitate her image. But if she continues down the path she's currently on (valuing the filibuster over voting rights), she's going to be a one term senator.

Sinema Is Censured By The Arizona Democratic Party

 

Senator Krysten Sinema has been censured by the executive board of the Arizona Democratic Party.

They took the unusual move because of her vote to defend the 60-vote filibuster. Her vote effectively killed the Voting Rights Bill in the U.S. Senate. And it also means that no bill proposed and supported by Democrats can pass the Senate -- not the Voting Rights Bill, the Build Back Better Bill, or anything else. She has effectively given the Republicans the power to prevent any Democratic bill.

She is not up for re-election until 2024. That gives her time to rehabilitate her image among Democrats. And she needs to do that, because she is very unpopular with Democrats -- both in Arizona and across the nation.

I doubt she will even try though. She seems to be enjoying the notoriety that comes with being the "Republican" voice in the Democratic caucus. It feeds her ego, and makes her feel important.

But this narcissistic ego-inflation comes at a price. If she continues down this road, Arizona Democrats will find a suitable opponent for her in 2024, and Democrats across the country will help fund that replacement. There is a very good chance she would be defeated -- and she would deserve it!

Only 26% Of Arizona Dems Want Sinema To Be Re-Elected

The chart above is from the OH Predictive Insights Poll -- done between November 1st and 8th of a random sample of 713 Arizona registered voters, with a 3.3 point margin of error.

Arizona Democrats Have A VERY Low Opinion Of Sinema

The charts above are from the recent Data for Progress Poll -- done between October 8th and 10th of 467 likely Democratic Primary voters in Arizona, with a 5 point margin of error.

They show that Arizona Democrats are very angry with Senator Krysten Sinema. Only 25% approve of the job she is doing, while a whopping 70% disapprove. They support the planks in President Biden's Build Back Better bill, and don't like her opposition to the bill.

Right now, she would lose a Democratic primary to four possible opponents.

Arizona Democrats Are Very Unhappy With Senator Sinema

The chart above is from a new Civiqs Poll. It shows that 65% of Arizona Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of their Democratic senator -- Krysten Sinema. Only 17% have a favorable opinion.

It's a good thing she doesn't have to run for re-election until 2024. That's gives her some time to rehabilitate her image. Right now, she would not only lose a general election, but she might not even survive the Democratic primary.

Her numbers started to go down when she refused to support a raise to the minimum wage and said she would not support doing away with the filibuster. She also skipped a vote on establishing the January 6th commission.

Now she is opposing the President's Build Back Better bill. Worse yet, she refuses to say what parts of the bill she can't support.

She either needs to support the bill, or give her constituents a very good reason why she won't. Refusal to do either is not an option if she wants to be re-elected.

Arizona Democrats Unhappy With Sinema Over The Filibuster

Arizona Democratic Senator Krysten Sinema has been a huge supporter of the Senate's filibuster rule. She has been adamant about not voting to eliminate the filibuster. That may be a serious mistake.

A new poll shows Arizona Democrats are very unhappy with Sinema over her position on the filibuster -- and about 66% say if she persists in that, they would vote for someone else (someone who would get rid of the filibuster).

Sinema has taken the position because she thinks it would help her in the general election. But to get to a general election, you have to win the primary. And she might not win a primary if she has an opponent that would eliminate the filibuster.

The chart above is from a Data for Progress Poll -- done between June 28th and July 6th of 574 likely Arizona voters, with a 4 point margin of error.

Nearly 7 Ot Of 10 In U.S. Support Marijuana Legalization

 The support for the legalization of marijuana in the United States continues to climb. Now nearly 7 out of 10 Americans support legalization (68%). That's the highest percentage ever recorded.

And it showed in this election, as voters in four more states approved legalization for recreational use -- Arizona, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. That makes 15 states that have now approved the legal recreational use of marijuana.

The charts above are from a recent Gallup Poll -- done between September 30th and October 15th of a national sample of 1,035 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.

CNN Poll - Biden Leading In Arizona, Florida, & Michigan

The charts above reflect the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between July 18th and 24th of 873 registered voters in Arizona, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

The charts above reflect the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between July 18th and 24th of 880 registered voters in Florida, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

The charts above reflect the results of the new CNN / SSRS Poll -- done between July 18th and 24th of 927 registered voters in Michigan, with a 3.8 point margin of error.

Maine, N. Carolina, & Arizona Look Good For Senate Dems

The chart above is from the Public Policy Polling survey -- done on July 22nd and 23rd of 561 registered voters in Maine.

The chart above is from the Public Policy Polling survey -- done on July 22nd and 23rd of 939 registered voters in North Carolina.

The chart above is from the Public Policy Polling survey -- done on July 21st and 22nd of 816 registered voters in Arizona.

The closer we get to Election Day, the more it looks like Democrats have a good chance of regaining control of the U.S. Senate. In Maine, Democrat Sara Gideon leads by 5 points. In North Carolina, Democrat Cal Cunningham leads by 8 points. And in Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly leads by 9 points.

Add to this the fact that polls have shown a decent chance for Democrats to pick up a seat in Colorado and Montana, and you have the makings of a Democratic Senate majority.

Governors Suffering Because They Took Trump's Advice

The chart above shows the results of a SurveyMonkey Poll. They questioned 16,832 adults in Arizona (moe 3.5 points), 44,440 adults in Florida (moe 2.5 points), 12,883 adults in Georgia (moe 4 points), and 49,377 adults in Texas (moe 2.5 points) between May 11th and July 19th.

The charts shows the Republican governors in all four states have suffered by following Trump's advice to reopen their economies before the Coronavirus was controlled. All of the governors now show a disapproval much higher than approval over their handling of the virus -- by 26 points in Arizona, 18 points in Florida, 11 points in Georgia, and 11 points in Texas.

New Poll Shows Trump Losing Ground In Battleground States

These charts are from the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between June 8th and 18th of 3,870 registered voters in Battleground States (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina). The poll's margin of error for all the states is 1.8 points -- and for each state is between 4.1 and 4.6 points.

Trump won all six of these states in 2016, and that allowed him to squeak out an Electoral College win. But it is distinctly possible that he could lose all of them this year. He's looking more and more like a one term president.

These 5 Charts Should Worry Trump And Republicans

This chart reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between May 30th and June second of 1,002 Arizona voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between May 30th and June 2nd of 801 Wisconsin voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between May 30th and June 2nd of 803 Ohio voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of a Public Policy Polling survey -- done on June 2nd and 3rd of 949 North Carolina voters.

This chart reflects the results of a Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between May 28th and June 1st of 1,166 Texas voters, with a 2.9 point margin of error.

In 2016, Donald Trump carried all five of these states. But polls are showing he could lose all five of them in 2020. He is trailing by 4 points in Arizona, by 9 points in Wisconsin, by 2 points in Ohio, by 4 points in North Carolina, and has only a 1 point advantage in Texas.

Biden Leads Trump In Florida, Arizona, And Virginia

The chart reflects the results of the Florida Atlantic University Poll -- done between May 8th and 12th of a sample of 928 Florida voters, with a 3.1 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the Arizona Public Opinion Pulse Poll -- done between May 9th and 11th of a sample of 600 Arizona voters, with a 4 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of the Roanoke College Poll -- done between May 3rd and 16th of a sample of 563 Virginia voters, with a 4.1 point margin of error.

Many expect Virginia to go blue in November, but Florida and Arizona are battleground states that Trump cannot afford to lose.

Joe Biden Wins Big In Florida, Illinois, And Arizona

Ohio didn't vote yesterday. It's governor refused to abide by a court decision and used the excuse of the election being a public health hazard. He cancelled the election, saying it would be held later (possibly in June).

But the other states voted -- Florida, Illinois, and Arizona. And Joe Biden scored huge victories in all three states. He won Florida by about 39 points, Illinois by about 23 points, and Arizona by about 12 points.

That gave him most of the available delegates in those states, and he increased his delegate lead from about 150 to nearly 300.

It looks like Joe Biden is going to be our nominee. But I still don't think Bernie Sanders should be pressured to quit. Let him make that decision in his own time, and don't give his supporters the idea they were not allowed to have their say.

Democratic Polls For Arizona, Michigan, And Washington

The chart above reflects the results of the latest OH Predictive Insights Poll -- done on March 3rd and 4th of 398 likely Democratic voters in Arizona, with a 4.9 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the latest Detroit Free Press / EPIC-MRA Poll -- done between March 4th and 6th of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, with a 4.9 point margin of error.

The chart above shows the results of two recent polls in Washington state. The KING 5 News Poll was done between March 4th and 6th of 500 likely Democratic voters.

The Data for Progress Poll was done recently of 717 likely Democratic voters.

Some Good News From Arizona

There's some good news for Democrats in Arizona. It looks like former astronaut Mark Kelly (and husband of Gabrielle Giffords) is now leading Martha McSally in that state's race for the U.S. Senate.

McSally had led by 2 points in February, and by 1 point in May. She is now trailing by 5 points (Kelly 46% to McSally 41%).

This is McSally's second attempt to be elected as Arizona's senator. She lost to Kirsten Sinema in the last election. She was then appointed to replace John McCain after his death -- making her the non-elected incumbent. If she can't hold on to the seat, her political career is probably over.

This is a real possibility for Democrats to grab a Republican-held Senate seat. Mark Kelly is popular, as is his wife "Gabby" Giffords (who was a U.S. Representative from Arizona before being shot in the head at a political rally).

Republicans are blaming Trump's poor job approval numbers in Arizona for McSally trailing. That probably didn't help, but I think the Democrats just have the better candidate in this race.

The chart above reflects to results of the new OH Predictive Insights Poll -- done on August 13th and 14th of 600 likely Arizona voters, and has a 4 point margin of error.

Arizona Could Be In Play In 2020 (At Least For Biden)

The chart above reflects the results of a new OH Predictive Insights Poll. It was done on May 1st and 2nd of 600 likely general election voters in Arizona, and has a margin of error of 4 points.

Arizona is a fairly reliable state for Republicans. It has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in the last five presidential election. But that could change in 2020.

This poll shows that there is one Democrat that could win Arizona right now -- Joe Biden. Biden leads Trump by 5 points.

Other Democrats don't do so well, and none come within the margin of error. Elizabeth Warren trails by 5 points and Beto O’Rourke trails by 6 points. Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, and Pete Buttigieg all trail by 9 points.