Senator Menendez Guilty Of Bribery And Corruption

From The New York Times: 

Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey was convicted on all counts in a sweeping scheme to sell his office to foreign powers and crooked businessmen in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash, a luxury car and bars of solid gold.

A jury of 12 New Yorkers convicted him on charges including honest services wire fraud, bribery and extortion — 16 counts in all. Their verdict makes Mr. Menendez, a Democrat whose term expires at year’s end, only the seventh sitting U.S. senator to be convicted of a federal crime. Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, called on Mr. Menendez to resign minutes after the verdict was read.

Nearly 7 Ot Of 10 In U.S. Support Marijuana Legalization

 The support for the legalization of marijuana in the United States continues to climb. Now nearly 7 out of 10 Americans support legalization (68%). That's the highest percentage ever recorded.

And it showed in this election, as voters in four more states approved legalization for recreational use -- Arizona, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota. That makes 15 states that have now approved the legal recreational use of marijuana.

The charts above are from a recent Gallup Poll -- done between September 30th and October 15th of a national sample of 1,035 adults, with a 4 point margin of error.

N. Jersey & Virginia Voters Took Trump To Woodshed Tuesday

(Caricature of Donald Trump is by DonkeyHotey.)

Donald Trump (being the narcissist that he is) thought the elections on Tuesday night were all about him -- and decided that Gillespie had lost in Virginia because the didn't embrace Trump enough.

Trump is right about one thing. The elections were in large part about him -- a rebuke of him. The voters took Trump out behind the proverbial woodshed, and they gave him a thorough whuppin'. Trump supporters showed up, but there were overwhelmed by the anti-Trump sentiments of most voters.

Here is how Steven Shepherd describes it in Politico.com:

This one was for Donald Trump.

Exit polls revealed an unmistakable anti-Trump backlash Tuesday, as Democrats won resounding victories in governors races in Virginia and New Jersey.

Majorities of voters in both states disapproved of the job Trump is doing as president, with significant numbers of voters in each state saying Trump was a reason for their vote. And far more of those voters said they made their choice to oppose Trump than to support him.

It’s not uncommon for the president’s party to lose the off-year Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races in the first year of the new administration. Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush also saw the opposition party sweep both races a year after their first elections.

But what is unusual about Tuesday night is the extent to which the two races were about Trump. And the stark results cast fresh doubt on the health of Republican majorities in the House and Senate, in addition to gubernatorial races in next year's midterm elections.

Trump’s approval rating in Virginia was just 40 percent, according to the exit poll. Among the 57 percent of voters who disapproved of Trump’s job performance, Democrat Ralph Northam beat Republican Ed Gillespie, 87 percent to 11 percent.

The intensity gap strongly favored Northam, too. Nearly half of Virginia voters, 47 percent, strongly disapproved of Trump — and Northam won 95 percent of that vote. In other words, nearly 45 percent of the votes cast on Tuesday were from strong Trump disapprovers who voted for Northam.

Half of Virginia voters said Trump was a reason for their vote — with twice as many saying they were voting to oppose Trump (34 percent) as to support him (17 percent). Northam won 97 percent of voters for whom opposing Trump was a factor. . . .

The numbers were even worse for Trump in bluer New Jersey. His approval rating there was only 36 percent, compared with 63 percent who disapproved — with 54 percent of voters strongly disapproving. Only 11 percent of voters said they were voting to express support for Trump. Nearly three times as many voters, 28 percent, said they were voting to oppose Trump — and Gov.-elect Phil Murphy won 96 percent of them.

Latest Polls Show The Blue States Solidly Behind Clinton

Donald Trump is having trouble trying to keep some of his red states in the fold (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina). Hillary Clinton doesn't have that kind of problem with states normally considered blue states.

The chart above reflects the latest polls in 10 blue states -- California, Virginia, Oregon, Maryland, Connecticut, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maine, Rhode Island. Clinton leads in all of them, and is expected to carry them rather easily in November. That's good, because it allows her to put more emphasis on the swing states.

NOTE -- You can click on the state name to get the poll dates, sample size, and margin of error.

Clinton Wins N. Jersey, N. Mexico, And S. Dakota

Five states held a primary Tuesday night, and one held a caucus. These were the last states to vote in this primary/caucus season. Only the District of Columbia is still to vote, and they will do that next week. Here are the results of the first five states to vote -- New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana. California polls closed very late, and I will address those results in another post.

NEW JERSEY PRIMARY
Clinton...............63%
Sanders...............37%

NEW MEXICO PRIMARY
Clinton...............52%
Sanders...............49%

SOUTH DAKOTA PRIMARY
Clinton...............51%
Sanders...............49%

NORTH DAKOTA CAUCUS
Clinton...............26%
Sanders...............64%

MONTANA PRIMARY
Clinton...............46%
Sanders...............49%

This was a very good night for Clinton. She won New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota, while Sanders won the only caucus. As I write this, Montana is too close to call with Sanders having a small lead. This outcome gives Clinton more than a hundred delegates over the 2383 needed for the nomination -- and that's before the California results come in (where she is assured of another 200 delegates, at least).

New Jersey Democrats Will Give Clinton The Nomination

Bernie Sanders is dangling delegate-rich California before his supporters as the key to his path to the nomination. It's a lie. Hillary Clinton will have more than enough delegates to give her the Democratic presidential nomination before the polls even close in California on June 7th.

Currently, Clinton needs less than 100 delegates to clinch the nomination. On June 4th and 5th, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will put Clinton even closer to the magic number of 2383 delegates. Then on June 7th, the first state to close their polls (New Jersey) will put her over the top rather easily.

The chart above was made from information in the new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between May 10th and 16th of a random sample of 696 likely New Jersey Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of 3.7 points. It shows that Clinton can count on winning at least half of New Jersey's 142 delegates -- and that will be plenty enough to put her over the magic number of 2383.

Clinton will then pad her winning delegate total with more delegates from New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and California later on June 7th -- whether she wins those states or not.

Sanders and his aides can toss around terms like "a contested convention" if they want, but the reality is that Hillary Clinton will win the nomination on the first ballot. That's just a fact.

Presidential Preference In South Carolina And New Jersey

Three new polls have been released on the race for the presidential nominations. They are two polls done of South Carolina and one for New Jersey.

The Monmouth University Poll was done between November 5th and 8th of a random sample of 401 South Carolina Republicans and 400 South Carolina Democrats. The margin of error for both parties is 4.9 points.

The Public Policy Polling survey was done on November 7th and 8th of a random sample of 787 South Carolina Republicans and 400 South Carolina Democrats. The margin of error for Republicans is 3.5 points, and for Democrats is 4.9 points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll was done between November 4th and 8th of a random sample of 481 Republicans and 538 Democrats. The margin of error for Republicans is 4.5 points, and for Democrats is 4.2 points.

New GOP State Polls - Minnesota, N. Jersey, N. Hampshire

These are the three latest state polls regarding the GOP race for the presidential nomination. Donald Trump has significant leads in New Hampshire and New Jersey (9 points ahead of Gov. Christie there), but is virtually tied with Scott Walker in Minnesota (one point behind, which is well within the margin of error). That is not a surprise, since Minnesota borders walker's home state of Wisconsin.

Public Policy Polling did the Minnesota survey between July 30th and August 2nd. They questioned a random sample of 353 GOP voters, and the poll has a 5.2 point margin of error.

The New Hampshire numbers come from the WMUR Granite State Poll -- done between July 22nd and 30th of a random sample of 309 GOP voters, and has a 5.6 point margin of error.

The New Jersey numbers are from the Rutgers University Poll -- done between July 25th and August 1st of 263 randomly chosen GOP registered voters, and has a 6.8 point margin of error.

Senate Races -- New Jersey, Iowa, And Michigan

Stockton Polling Institute

Lukens Company Poll

Fox 2 Detroit / Mitchell Poll

Senate Races (New Jersey, Mississippi, And Louisiana)

The charts above reflect the current voter preferences for the senate races in New Jersey, Mississippi, and Louisiana. They show the Democrat is favored in one race, the Republican in another, and the third race could be very competitive.

The race favoring a Democrat is in New Jersey, where the incumbent (Cory Booker) has a 20 point lead over his Republican opponent. It is going to be very difficult for the Republican to even be competitive in this race -- let alone win it.

In Mississippi, the incumbent Republican (Thad Cochran) looks to be in pretty good shape -- leading his Democratic opponent by 12 points. The only real hope is that the teabaggers in that state stay mad at Cochran for appealing to Blacks to beat their favorite candidate -- and either vote for a third party or stay at home on election day. If they come home to the GOP (as expected), then Cochran will probably win pretty easily.

The race in Louisiana looks good for Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu, but we need to remember that all three of her opponents are Republicans. Unless she gets over 50% of the vote, there will be a runoff -- and the supporters of the two losing Republicans will probably support Landrieu's surviving Republican opponent, which would tighten the race up considerably. I still think Landrieu will eke out a win in Louisiana, but it is not going to be as easy as Booker or Cochran.

In the final analysis, I don't think these three states will change the balance of power in the United States Senate.

The Monmouth University Poll was done between June 25th and 29th of 800 New Jersey adults, and has a 3.5 point margin of error.

The Rasmussen Poll was done on June 25th and 26th of 750 Mississippi likely voters, and has a margin of error of about 4 points.

The survey from Public Policy Polling was done between June 26th and 29th of 664 Louisiana registered voters, and has a 3.8 point margin of error.

Booker Has Nice Lead In New Jersey Senate Race

Democrat Cory Booker won the special election last year to serve in the Senate pretty easily. But that senate seat is up for it's regular election this year, so Booker has to run again. It doesn't look like he's going to have much of a problem holding that seat though. A recent poll has him with a 13 point lead over his Republican opponent, Jeff Bell -- and Booker is already polling very close to 50%.

This chart was made from a new Rasmussen Poll -- taken on June 17th and 18th of 750 likely New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of 4 points.

New Jersey Voters Say No To "Christie For President"

A candidate for the presidency that cannot even carry his own home state is not a candidate that can be elected. That is more than just a saying -- it has been a reality in modern elections. And if the Republicans nominate New Jersey Governor Chris Christie in 2016, they will be fighting against that tradition -- just like in 2012 (when Romney couldn't carry any of his "home" states -- Massachusetts, Michigan, California).

It seems that the people of New Jersey don't think Christie would make a good president (57%), and they don't want him to run for the office (52%). That's the verdict of a new Quinnipiac University Poll (taken between April 2nd and 7th of 1,356 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of 2.7 points).

And the bad news doesn't stop there for Christie. Less than half of New Jersey voters think he is honest and trustworthy (43%), and a clear majority (56%) think the in-house investigation that cleared the governor in the George Washington Bridge closing was just a whitewash, and not a real investigation.

Chris Christie Finds Himself Innocent

(The cartoon image above is by Bill Day at cagle.com.)

The first of several inquiries into whether New Jersey Governor Chris Christie ordered or knew of the George Washington Bridge closing as a political retaliation for a mayor refusing to support the governor. And the verdict is innocent -- Christie did not order, or even know about the bridge closing.

But don't get too excited (or angry) about this verdict, because no one believed this inquiry would find anything different. That's because this is the inquiry arranged by the governor himself, and done by a law firm known to be friendly to the governor. The lawyers conducting the inquiry said they had full access to all information, but that is questionable. They had access to what the governor gave them, and were not able to question those aides at the center of the scandal (including Christie aide Bridget Anne Kelly).

In other words, the governor's own inquiry (with only partial access to all the facts) found him innocent of any involvement. No surprise there. It would have been shocking if they had found otherwise. This is nothing more than a rather feeble attempt at a political white-washing (which cost the taxpayers in New Jersey over a million dollars).

Fortunately, there are other much more serious inquiries looking in to the bridge scandal -- and they will be looking at all the facts.

Chris Christie's Troubles Continue To Grow

(This caricature of Chris Christie is by the one and only DonkeyHotey.)

I haven't seen a potential candidate come apart faster than Chris Christie since Clayton Williams ran for governor of Texas in 1990. Williams started as a prohibitive favorite, and then his campaign disintegrated as he made mistake after mistake. Christie is doing the same, and it's destroying his credibility as a presidential hopeful.

It started with his attempt at payback for a mayor refusing to support his re-election. Christie (or his aides/appointees) closed lanes entering the George Washington Bridge at Ft. Lee, New Jersey -- causing massive traffic jams (and possibly taking the life of one heart attack victim whose ambulance was delayed getting to the hospital). Christie held a press conference, denying that he ordered (or even knew about) the lane closings.

Then came another accusation -- that he withheld funds designated for Hurricane Sandy relief to pressure the mayor of Hoboken into approving a private building venture in that city. This was followed by accusations of bullying by other New Jersey officials.

And the scandals just won't die. Now there is evidence that Christie was lying in the press conference where he denied knowledge of the lane closings. The man Christie appointed to serve on the Port Authority, David Wildstein, and the man who ordered the lane closings, said Christie lied to the public. He says Christie knew about the lane closings from the start, and he says he has the evidence to prove it. Also adding fuel to the fire is Christie's former campaign manager, Bill Stepien, who has said he will plead the Fifth Amendment if forced to testify about the lane closings.

A few months ago, Christie had the best favorability ratings of any Republican. That's not true any more (see chart below). Not that his ratings are now upside-down, and almost all groups give him a higher unfavorable rating than favorable. Only two groups (Republicans and Hispanics) give him a higher favorable than unfavorable rating -- and the ratings are very close among Republicans. The surprise (at least for me) is that Hispanics give him a good rating (45% favorable and 29% unfavorable). It seems that Hispanics are a lot kinder to Republicans than Republicans are to Hispanics.

This chart was made from a new YouGov Poll. The survey was done between January 25th and 27th of a national random sample of 1,000 adults, and has a margin of error of 3.9 points.

Christie Has Been Hurt - And His Troubles Aren't Over

Governor Chris Christie was already having problems with a possible bid for the presidency in 2016. Republican voters in the South (and much of the West and Midwest) consider him to be an "Eastern liberal", and are still mad at him for embracing President Obama after Hurricane Sandy hit his state. Now it looks like the George Washington Bridge scandal may actually have cost him more support.

The chart above was made from information gleaned from a new Rasmussen Poll (conducted on January 9th and 10th of 1,000 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of 3 points). The question asked of these voters was would they be more or less likely to vote for Christie in 2016 if it was proven that his office knew about the bridge lane closings. And since if Christie admits that his Deputy Chief Aide was involved, that seems like something that has already been proven.

Nearly one half of nationwide voters (48%) say they would be less likely to vote for Christie (and another 6% aren't sure). It seems to me that this scandal has put a serious dent in his ability to get the Republican nomination, or to win a general election in 2016 (if he could somehow wrangle that nomination). And this story is far from over.

But that's not his only problem. It seems that a new scandal is rearing its ugly head. Federal officials are investigating Christie over the possible misuse of federal disaster relief funds. He used some of that money to run tourism ads for the state of New Jersey (starring himself, of course). The problem is that those funds weren't meant to be used to promote tourism -- but to help the state rebuild after Hurricane Sandy.

It's looking more and more like Christie doesn't think rules apply to him anymore, now that he is governor of a large state -- and I shudder to think how he would abuse the power of the presidency if elected.

A Majority In New Jersey Don't Believe Christie's Denials

On Thursday, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie held a news conference. The purpose of that conference was to salvage his political career after it had become public knowledge that at least one member of his staff and some of his political associates had in an act of political retaliation -- closing several lanes of traffic entering the George Washington Bridge to create traffic jams and cause difficulties for the mayor of Ft. Lee, New Jersey (who had refused to endorse Christie for re-election).

Christie denied any knowledge or participation in the political retaliation, and announced that he had fired the staff member who ordered it -- his Deputy Chief Aide, Bridget Anne Kelly. But Christie may not have solved his political problems with those denials. The Rasmussen Poll surveyed 800 likely New Jersey voters after the Thursday news conference, and a majority (54%) of the poll's respondents said they believed it was likely that Christie had knowledge of the retaliation (which means they believe it is likely that he had lied in the press conference). Only 36% think it is likely that Christie was telling the truth. The survey had a margin of error of 3.5 points.

But that's not the only problem for Christie that the poll revealed. A whopping 71% think this was probably not the only political retaliation that Christie's staff had been involved in (either with or without his knowledge), while only 17% think it is unlikely. And 56% of New Jersey voters think Christie should resign if proof is found that he had knowledge of the political retaliation (to only 29% who think he should not resign).

I don't know if Christie's political ambitions will survive this scandal or not, but it is obvious that he has taken a serious political hit with this story. And it's not over yet. The press will keep digging, and there will be hearings in the New Jersey legislature. It will be interesting to see what develops -- and how it affects his presidential aspirations.

The New Jersey "Bully" Is Exposed

(The photo above showing New Jersey Governor Chris Christie with his aide, Bridget Anne Kelly, is from the website NorthJersey.com.)

The story about the Ft. Lee (New Jersey) lane closings leading to the George Washington Bridge has just got interesting. Those lane closings jammed up traffic and caused many commuters long delays. Among those experiencing delays were emergency vehicles -- with one woman who had a heart attack dying because her ambulance was delayed so long.

New Jersey Democrats immediately blamed Governor Chris Christie for the closures, but Christie played it off as just a "traffic survey" and said he had nothing to do with it. That was exposed almost immediately since New York officials said they were not aware of any survey (and the two states share port authority duties, including roads leading to those bridges). But while there were serious suspicions, there was no evidence that Christie had anything to do with the lane closures.

That has now changed. E-mails have been discovered from Christie top aide Bridget Anne Kelly, and these e-mails make it clear that she was involved in ordering the lane closures, and it was being done as a retaliation to the mayor of Ft. Lee (who had refused to support Christie in his re-election bid).

Yesterday, Christie called a press conference and tried to distance himself from the charges that he had ordered the retaliatory action himself. He blustered that he knew nothing about it, and said he had fired Ms. Kelly for lying to him about the affair. Frankly though, this smells like Kelly is being offered up as a token victim (an aide willing to fall on her sword to protect the governor she served). People who know Ms. Kelly say she is not the type of person who would act without approval from her boss (Christie).

Christie is the type of governor who has a top-down administration -- meaning he has a firm control over what his aides and employees do in his name. It is hard to believe he knew nothing about this political retaliation, and if he didn't, why didn't he find out what had happened before it was exposed by the press (since the story is now more than 3 months old)?

It seems that Christie has a reputation in New Jersey, and its not a good one. Instead of the jolly person he exhibits in public, he is known to be thin-skinned and vindictive and quick to retaliate against anyone who has the audacity to oppose him. State Senator Barbara Buono, who ran against him in 2012, says many in New Jersey (including some Democrats) fear the governor, and keep quiet out of a desire to keep their name off a Christie "enemies list". In short, he is a bully -- and now he has been publicly exposed as such.

The real question now is whether this will hurt him in a run for the presidency in 2016. That's still a long way off, but it looks like this story may have strong legs and will be in the news for quite a while -- and you can be sure any possible GOP opponents won't hesitate to remind primary voters of it. Moderate Republicans are not going to like supporting a tarnished candidate -- and his enemies, the teabaggers, while they might have liked his retaliating against a Democrat, won't like his apologizing to that same Democrat. But I suspect he has hurt himself most among Independents, who are already disgusted with most politicians -- and no party nominee can be elected president without grabbing a majority of the Independent vote.

It will be interesting to see where this story goes in the coming weeks. I have a feeling that much more will be exposed, and it won't be good for the bully in the governor's mansion.

Equality Is Now Legal In New Jersey

(Image is from the Facebook page of David Gerrold.)

In September, Judge Mary Jacobson of the Mercer County Superior Court ruled that New Jersey must allow same-sex marriages. She said the law allowing civil unions did not go far enough, since it sometimes allowed the denial of federal benefits -- and that meant same-sex couples were denied the equality they were guaranteed under the state constitution.

Governor Chris Christie immediately appealed her decision to the state's Supreme Court, and asked for an injunction to prevent the start of same-sex marriages in that state (which Judge Jacobson had ordered to be allowed). On Friday, the Supreme Court denied the state's request for that injunction. The court said:

". . .the state has not shown a reasonable probability that it will succeed on the merits" of the appeal.

"When a party presents a clear case of ongoing unequal treatment, and asks the court to vindicate constitutionally protected rights, a court may not sidestep its obligation to rule for an indefinite amount of time. Under those circumstances, courts do not have the option to defer."

"The State has presented no explanation for how it is tangibly or actually harmed by allowing same-sex couples to marry. It has not made a forceful showing of irreparable harm." 

The court did not deny the appeal (but only the temporary injunction), so the state could have continued the case. But Governor Christie could read the handwriting on the wall, and saw that the state's chance of winning the case was very remote at best -- so he has dropped the appeal.

That means New Jersey has now joined 13 other states (and the District of Columbia) in allowing legal same-sex marriages. The other 13 states are California, Connecticut, Delaware, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.

A midnight on October 21st (Monday), the date ordered by Judge Jacobson, the state began allowing those marriages. Eight of the first same-sex marriages were officiated by New Jersey's new senator, Cory Booker.

But the fight for equality in this country is far from over. It will not be won until the other 36 states join this 14 in recognizing that the LGBT community should have the same rights as all other American citizens under the Constitution. Unfortunately, some states (especially in the Bible Belt) may have to be dragged kicking and screaming into constitutional compliance.

The U.S. Senate Gets Another Democrat

(The photo of new senator Cory Booker on the left is by David Shankbone.)

New Jersey held its special election yesterday to fill the senate seat currently held by a Republican appointed by Governor Christie after the death of Senator Frank Lautenberg (who passed away last June). And as expected, that seat is now back in Democratic hands.

Mayor Cory Booker soundly defeated Republican Steven Lonegan in the special election. Here are the results as of 10:45pm EST, with 98% of the vote in:

Cory Booker (D)...............706,808 (55%)
Steven Lonegan (R)...............574,164 (44%)

Booker will complete the current term, and will have to run for re-election in 2014.

N.J. Judge Says Banning Same-Sex Marriage Violates The State Constitution

(The image above is from the website of the New Jersey Star-Ledger.)

It looks like another state may soon be joining the ranks of those that allow same-sex couples to legally marry. On Friday, State Superior Court Judge Mary Jacobson ruled in favor of six same-sex couples, and granted them an emergency order directing the state of New Jersey to begin allowing same-sex marriages no later than October 21st. She wrote in her opinion:

"Same-sex couples must be allowed to marry in order to obtain equal protection of the law under the New Jersey constitution." 

Of course, Republican Governor Chris Christie disagreed with the ruling. He said the state would appeal the judge's ruling -- all the way to the Supreme Court if necessary. But like other Republicans, Christie is trying to fight an idea whose time has come. That was verified by another poll just this last week (by a conservative business-oriented news service).

The survey was done by the Bloomberg News, and was conducted between September 20th and 23rd of 1,000 nationwide adults, with a 3.1 point margin of area. The chart below shows the results -- that a clear majority of Americans now support allowing legal same-sex marriages.