New California Poll Has 51% In Favor Of Redistricting Proposal

 The chart above is from the Emerson College Poll -- done on September 15th and 16th of a sample of 1,000 registered California voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

Note To Both Parties: Gerrymandering Is CHEATING!

Donald Trump actually started his second term with good job approval. Independents had joined Republicans to elect him - mainly because he promised to lower prices, bring good jobs back to this country, and end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.

But he has done none of that. Inflation continues to rise, and will likely get worse thanks to his nonsensical tariffs (on nearly every country in the world). And both wars continue to rage on. This has caused Independents to abandon him en masse - giving him the lowest job approval of any president since World War II.

This has caused most people to believe the Republicans (who have gone along with Trump on every issue) will lose the House of Representatives in next year's election. If that happens, Trump will truly become a lame duck president. Democrats would be able to stop most of his agenda.

Trump decided he had an answer for that. He decided Texas Republicans should do some redistricting. And Texas Gov. Abbott (being a Trump sycophant) has called a special session of the legislature to accomplish that redistricting. It is Trump's hope that by gerrymandering Texas districts, they can squeeze out another 5 districts for Republicans - and that may save the House for the GOP (because it would also mean five less districts for Democrats).

Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has responded by saying California might also redistrict if Texas does - giving more seats to Democrats in that state - and some other Democratic governors have said they might do the same.

I understand the Democrats wanting to fight fire with fire. But both parties are wrong. Gerrymandering is cheating and should not happen in any state.

We need a new law - and it should probably be a national law that would apply to every state. The law should mandate that legislative districts be created by a bipartisan commission. That commission should create districts of equal population and giving districts to the different races in the same portion as their population in the state.

Politicians should not be able to choose the voters they want in districts. Voters should be able to elect the politicians they want. And the process should be fair to both parties and all voters. Anything else is an unjustified attack on our democracy.  

Raising The Minimum Wage Does NOT Cause Layoffs

 

It is a Republican mantra that raising the minimum wage would cause layoffs - and raising it up to a livable wage would cause massive layoffs. That is simply never been true.

California recently raised the minimum wage for fast food workers (traditionally among the lowest paid workers) to $20 an hour. Did it cause massive layoffs? No! It didn't cause layoffs at all. The number of fast food jobs actually increased!

How could this be? After all, it sounds reasonable that higher wages would result in layoffs. But while it may sound reasonable, it violates good business principles.

Any well run business will hire the number of workers it takes to deliver their product to customers in the most efficient way. If it hires too few workers, the product will not be able to be delivered in a fast and efficient way - and customers will go to another business that can do that. If it hires too many workers, it will waste money (cutting into profits).

The truth is that the appropriate number of workers will be hired regardless of whether the minimum wage is low or high.

Another lie told by the GOP is that a business would have to raise prices with a higher wage and thus lose out to a competitor. That makes no sense because all competitors would be paying the same minimum wage.

Don't believe the Republican lies! The minimum wage should be a livable wage.

Texans (Except For Rich) Pay More In Taxes Than Californians

The following article is by Nick Anderson in Reform Austin News: 

The graphic was generated from data gathered by the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy.  The data is from 2018, but the institute is expected to release updated findings later this year, according to the San Antonio Express-News. 

Texans in the bottom 20 percent income group pay 13 percent of their income in state and local taxes. Meanwhile, Californians in the bottom 20 percent pay 10.5 percent.

Middle income Texans, which represent 60 percent of earners, pay 9.7 percent in state and local taxes while the middle 60 percent of Californians pay 8.9 percent. 

The top 1 percent of earners in Texas pay dramatically less: 3.1 percent of their income vs. 12.4 percent in California. Texans in the top 1 percent earn $617,000 or more per year, while Califrnians in the 1-percent-club earn $714,000 or more. 

Taxes are considered ‘regressive’ when they take a larger percentage of income from low-income earners than from high-income earners. Sales taxes and property taxes – those that Texas relies on – are regressive. Texas was the second-most regressive tax state behind Washington state. 

All states have some regressive taxes, but some states counterbalance those with income taxes that hit the highest earners the most. California is the most progressive tax state because people in higher tax brackets pay higher tax rates, according to the institute.

Despite Texas’ reputation as a “low-tax, low-government state,”  said Robert Peroni, a tax professor at the University of Texas at Austin School of Law, states with income taxes do more to lower inequality.

But if you think the Texas system is unfair, too bad. Texas voters overwhelmingly supported a 2019 amendment to the state constitution that would make it very difficult to pass an income tax. Given that the current system mostly benefits the top 1 percent, one wonders if the voters fully understood the implications of their vote. 

Biden Has Big Lead In Texas - California In A 3-Way Tie

The charts above reflect the results of a new CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between December 4th and 8th of 327 voters likely to participate in the Texas Democratic primary, and has a 6.6 point margin of error.

The charts above reflect the results of a new CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between December 4th and 8th of 508 voters likely to participate in the California Democratic primary, and has a 5.2 point margin of error.

The polls show that Joe Biden has a very large lead in Texas -- about 20 points over Bernie Sanders and 22 points over Elizabeth Warren. Pete Buttigieg trails Biden by 26 points.

California is much closer, and could be won by any of three candidates -- since all three are within the poll's margin of error. Biden has 21%, Sanders has 20%, and Warren has 17%. Buttigieg trails far behind with 9%.

But the race is very fluid in both states. About 43% of Texas voters and 41% of California voters say they might change their minds before the primary happens on March 3rd.

Biden & Warren Are The Leading Democrats In California

These charts are from the Public Policy Institute of California Poll -- done between November 3rd and 12th of 682 likely Democratic primary voters, with a 5.1 point margin of error.

It shows Joe Biden (24%) and Elizabeth Warren (23%) leading in California, and considering the margin of error are in a virtual tie for first place. Bernie Sanders is in third with 17%. Kamala Harris, who is the senator from California, is only polling 8% in her home state (1 point better than Pete Buttigieg).

The second chart shows that California voters care more about beating Trump (55%) than electing someone who agrees more closely with their views (36%).

Elizabeth Warren Takes The Lead In Delegate-Rich California

The chart above is from the UC Berkley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll -- done between September 13th and 18th of 2,272 registered voters in California likely to vote in the state's Democratic primary. The margin of error is 3 points.

In the last few days, I have posted polls that show Elizabeth Warren has taken the lead in Iowa and New Hampshire. Now this poll shows she has done the same in California. California is also an early state for 2020 -- voting on March 3rd with a bevy of other states.

Warren has the support of 29% of California Democrats/Leaners, while Biden has 22% and Sanders has 19%. They are followed by Harris with 8%, Buttigieg with 6%, and O'Rourke with 3%.

Warren has gained 11 points since this same poll was done in June. Biden has neither gained nor lost support, and Sanders has gained 2 points. The biggest losers are Harris (who has lost 5 points) and Buttigieg (who has lost 4 points). O'Rourke has neither gained nor lost points.

Kamala Harris Has Taken A Slim Lead In California

NOTE -- The zeros just mean that candidate did not get at least 1% support.

The chart above reflects the results of a new Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between July 10th and 15th of 519 Democrats/Leaners in California. The margin of error is 5.7 points.

The good news for Kamala Harris is that she has taken the lead in her home state of California. The bad news is that she's going to have to do a lot better than 23% in that state. She can't afford to lose 77% of the vote there. She needs California Democrats to help her make up the deficit she has in other states.

Democratic Nomination Is A 5-Way Race In California

The chart above is from a UC Berkley Institute of Governmental Studies Poll -- done between June 4th and 10th of 2,131 voters likely to participate in the California Democratic primary, with a 3 point margin of error.

While there are 24 candidates in the Democratic race for the presidential nomination, only five seem to be getting serious consideration in California -- Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg. All five are in double figures. Only one other candidate scored above 1% support -- Beto O'Rourke at 3%.

Democratic Presidential Polls For California & Massachusetts

This chart reflects the results of a recent Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between April 3rd and 8th of a sample of 482 California voters who are Democrats/Leaners. It has a margin of error of 5.9 points.

This chart reflects the results of a recent Emerson College Poll -- done between April 4th and 7th of a sample of 371 Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts. It has a 5 point margin of error.

Both of these polls have a fairly small sample, but they do show that a couple of home-state candidates are not doing as well as they had hoped. It is generally considered that a candidate should be able to carry their home state to win. Right now, Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren are not doing that.

In California, Kamala Harris is currently third -- trailing Joe Biden by 9 points and Bernie Sanders by 1 point.

In Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren is also in third -- trailing Bernie Sanders by 12 points and Joe Biden by 9 points.

This does not mean these women won't win in their home state. It's still very early, and the numbers will likely change many times before primary day rolls around. But it does mean that both have some work to do.

New California Gun Law Should Be A Model For The Nation

Last Monday, the California legislature passed three new bills regarding guns. One created a new standard for getting a concealed weapon permit (8 hours of training and a live-fire test). A second denied gun ownership to anyone with two involuntary psychiatric holds in a single year.

Those are good laws, but it is the third that I think should be voted into law in all of our 50 states. It bans the purchase and/or possession of a gun or ammunition by anyone convicted of assault, battery, or stalking, regardless of the offenders relationship to the victim. And it makes that a lifetime ban.

Here is how Think Progress describes the new law:

Federal law prohibits people convicted of domestic violence misdemeanors and abusers subject to protective orders from purchasing and possessing firearms. But there are significant limitations. For example, federal law does not apply to family members other than a spouse or a child. It also does not include non-spouse relationships, such as girlfriends and friends, and does not apply to stalkers. Nor does the law require convicts to surrender their guns. This is why state lawmakers enact their own measures.

California has among the strongest laws prohibiting domestic abusers from getting guns, according the Giffords Law Center. Currently, the state bans the purchase and possession of guns and ammunition of any person convicted of assault, battery, or stalking regardless of their relationship with the victim/survivor. If Brown signs the measure into law, it’ll be a lifetime ban.

These measures are common sense, as there’s a clear link between domestic abuse and gun violence. Research shows a significant corollary between domestic violence and mass shootings; indeed, even the Parkland shooter was reportedly abusive to his ex-girlfriend. Domestic abusers with guns pose an even deadlier threat to their partners and are five times more likely to kill them.

I'm sure that right-wingers and other gun nuts will whine that this kind of law is a violation of the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. They are wrong. The Supreme Court has repeatedly held that cities and states may place reasonable restrictions on gun ownership -- and preventing people convicted of violence is an imminently reasonable thing to do.

It would make sense for all 50 states to adopt this law. Unfortunately some states (like Texas, where I live) won't do it. They consider the right to own a gun, even by violent people, to be more important than the lives of innocent people. That's why we must push to make this a federal law.

Nevada Becomes The 5th State For Legal Marijuana

(This map on legal marijuana is from governing.com.)

Yesterday (July 1st), Nevada became the fifth state where the sale and possession of small amounts of marijuana is legal. After passing the legalization initiative in the last election, Nevada joined four other states (Colorado, Washington, Oregon, and Alaska) in implementing that legalization. They expect the tax on marijuana sales to bring the state about $60 million in revenue in the next two years. I think that's probably a very low estimate.

By early next year, the number of states with legal marijuana will climb to eight states. Massachusetts, California, and Maine have all voted to legalize the gentle herb. The legalization will actually go into effect in Massachusetts on December 15th, in California on January 1st, and in Maine next February.

The genie is now out of the bottle -- and I expect several more states to jump on the legalization bandwagon in the next few years.

Four More States Legalize Marijuana Possession And Use

(This image is from opensecrets.org.)

Not all of the news fromTuesday night's election was bad news. Four more states have legalized the possession and use of small amounts of marijuana for recreational use. The states are California, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Maine. The results of the first three states are final, and while Maine is very close it looks like it is also going to pass. Here are the results for all four states:

CALIFORNIA (100% reporting)
For...............4,957,215 (56.04%)
Against...............3,889,080 (43.96%)

MASSACHUSETTS (99.9% reporting)
For...............3,491,808 (53.6%)
Against...............3,024,360 (46.4%)

NEVADA (100% reporting)
For...............602,400 (54.5%)
Against...............503,615 (46.5%)

MAINE (98% reporting)
For...............752,246 (50.2%)
Against...............745,872 (49.8%)

Assuming the yes vote in Maine holds up, there are now eight states that have legalized the recreational use of marijuana.

Latest Polls Show The Blue States Solidly Behind Clinton

Donald Trump is having trouble trying to keep some of his red states in the fold (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina). Hillary Clinton doesn't have that kind of problem with states normally considered blue states.

The chart above reflects the latest polls in 10 blue states -- California, Virginia, Oregon, Maryland, Connecticut, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maine, Rhode Island. Clinton leads in all of them, and is expected to carry them rather easily in November. That's good, because it allows her to put more emphasis on the swing states.

NOTE -- You can click on the state name to get the poll dates, sample size, and margin of error.

California Delivers Death Knell To Bernie Sanders Campaign

Bernie Sanders had placed all of the hopes of his presidential campaign on California recently. He has spent the last two weeks in that state. His thinking was that if he could score a big victory in that state, he could make a case to the super delegates that his was the best campaign to take on Trump -- and if he did exceptionally well there, he might even overtake Clinton in the pledged delegate count.

But that was not to happen. On Tuesday night, California Democratic voters made it clear that their choice for president was Hillary Clinton. Clinton didn't just win -- she won big in the that state. She raced out to about a 400,000 vote lead early, and maintained that lead all night. The latest numbers give her a 13 point lead (56% to 43%) over Sanders.

That has to be embarrassing for the Sanders campaign. It also removed any argument he had for convincing Democratic super delegates to give him the nomination. Clinton has won the most states, the most votes, and the most pledged delegates. There is simply no logical argument that can be made for any super delegate to switch from Clinton to Sanders. In fact, doing so would be denying the will of the Democratic voters (which was clearly that they wanted Clinton as their nominee).

Sanders has promised his supporters to continue his campaign through the District of Columbia next Tuesday (June 14th), and then to take his campaign to the Democratic convention in Philadelphia. I have no problem with that, and I doubt any other Democrat does. He should have that right. But he needs to stop his tawdry attacks on the Democratic nominee -- Hillary Clinton.

Sanders now wants the platform adopted by the Democratic convention to reflect the values he has been espousing. That should happen. Despite what some Sanders supporters think, there would be very little difference between a Sanders-written and a Clinton-written platform anyway. Both are good progressives who want what's best for the people of the United States.

When Sanders entered this race a few months ago, he promised to support the eventual nominee of the Democratic Party. He has run a good campaign, but it's over now -- and it's getting very close to the time when he needs to live up to his promise.

Is California Close? - Maybe And Maybe Not

The cable news media (and Sanders supporters) have been crowing that the California Democratic primary is very close. But they are only looking at one poll -- the PPIC poll. There have actually been four polls -- two of them have the race as close, and the other two show Clinton with a substantial lead. The RealClearPolitics Average (which I tend to believe over any individual poll) has Clinton with a lead of 8.7 points.

The polls shown are:

Fox News Poll (4/18-4/21) 623 likely voters (4.0 point moe)

Hoover / Golden State Poll (5/4-16) 694 likely voters (no moe)

Public Policy Institute of California Poll (5/13-22) 552 likely voters (5.7 point moe)

KABD / SurveyUSA Poll (5/19-22) 803 likely voters (3.5 point moe)

I think Clinton will probably win California, but it really doesn't matter. By the time California polls close, New Jersey will already have given her enough delegates to clinch the nomination -- and no matter who wins, Clinton will come out of California with over 200 more delegates (which will just pad her winning delegate total).

California Democratic Presidential Race May Be Tightening

The chart above was made from the results of a survey done by the Public Policy Institute of California -- completed between May 13th and 22nd of a random sample of 1,704 California voters, with a 3.3 point margin of error.

It shows that Clinton and Sanders are close in California. I'm sure that will make Sanders' supporters happy, but it really doesn't matter at this point. Clinton only needs 78 delegates to clinch the nomination -- and she will easily get more than that in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and New Jersey.

California, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota (and the District of Columbia a week later) will just pad Clinton's winning margin by a few hundred delegates. And it really doesn't matter if she wins or loses in those states and territories, since she will top 2383 either way.

Legal Use Of Marijuana Could Be Approved In California

The petition to legalize the possession of small amounts of marijuana for recreational use has gotten the required number of signatures, and will be on the ballot this November. It would make California the fifth state to legalize marijuana if it passes. Does it have a chance to pass?

The folks at the Public Policy Institute of California wanted to know, so they included the question on their latest survey of California voters. That survey was done between May 13th and 22nd of a random sample of 1,704 California voters, with a 3.3 point margin of error.

The results look very good for those who want to see marijuana legalized. About 60% of likely voters and 62% of registered voters would favor legalization.But it's more than 5 months until the election, and I'm sure the alcohol industry and those making money off the "war on drugs" will spend big money to defeat the issue. We can only hope the voters are too smart to swallow the lies they'll tell.

Sanders Trails Clinton Badly In New California Poll

The chart above represents the results of a new KABC / SurveyUSA Poll -- done May 19th through 22nd of a random sample of 1,598 registered voters in California.

I really think Hillary Clinton will clinch the nomination in New Jersey on June 7th, before the polls close in California that day. But Bernie Sanders has been promising his supporters a win in California -- a win so big it will convince super delegates to support him at the national convention.

I seriously doubt a California win would change the support for Clinton of any super delegate, but it now looks like Sanders won't be winning California anyway. The chart above shows Clinton currently has a huge 18 point lead over Sanders in that state (57% to 39%).

While New Jersey will put Clinton over the top in delegate votes, California will pad her margin by several hundred delegates. This race is over.

Two States Will Vote On Marijuana Legalization In November

 So far, four states have legalized the possession of small amounts of marijuana for recreational use -- Colorado, Washington, Alaska, and Oregon. Now it looks like two more states are poised to join them.

The two states, located at opposite ends of the country, are California and Maine. If passed, the petitions in the two states would legalize small amounts of marijuana for the recreational use of adults, and it would tax the sale of that legal marijuana.

In California, the coalition for legalization has collected more than 600,000 signatures. It only needed to submit 365,880 signatures to get on the ballot. I think there's a very good chance that the petition will be passed by California voters in November.

In Maine, 61,123 signatures were needed, and more than enough were submitted. But officials rejected about 17,000 signatures without vetting each one to make sure they were valid. The legalization initiative went to court, and the state court ordered the Maine Secretary of State to check all of the rejected signatures. The Secretary of State has now announced that enough signatures were gathered, and the legalization petition will be on the November ballot. A recent MPRC Poll in Maine showed that 54% of voters favored legalization.