Some Exit Poll Results From New Hampshire GOP Primary

 From The Washington Post.

Trump Has A Large Lead In Iowa And New Hampshire

 

The charts above are from the recent CBS News / YouGov Poll.

These CBS News/YouGov surveys were conducted between September 15-24, 2023. They are based on representative samples of 1,011 registered voters in Iowa and 943 in New Hampshire. The samples were weighted according to gender, age, race, education, and geographic region based on the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. Results here are reported among likely Republican caucus/primary voters, and have a margin of error of ±6.1 points in Iowa (n=458) and ±5.4 points in New Hampshire (n=502).

NYT/Siena Poll Shows Biden Leading Four Battleground States

 

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 11th of 445 likely New Hampshire voters, with a 5.5 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of 760 likely voters in Wisconsin, with a 4.7 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of 462 likely Nevada Voters, with a 5.3 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the new New York Times /Siena College Poll -- done between September 8th and 10th of 814 likely voters in Minnesota, with a 3.9 point margin of error.

Sanders/Buttigieg/Klobuchar Take New Hampshire Delegates

The New Hampshire results are as follows:

VOTE PERCENTAGE
Sanders..........26%
Buttigieg..........24%
Klobuchar..........20%
Warren..........9%
Biden..........8%
Steyer..........4%
Gabbard..........3%
Yang..........3%

DELEGATES WON
Sanders..........9
Buttigieg..........9
Klobuchar..........6

Bernie Sanders will claim victory in New Hampshire, and he deserves it. He got more votes than any of his Democratic opponents. But his celebration should be tempered by the fact that he fell far short of his finish in 2016.

In 2016, Sanders got about 60% of the New Hampshire vote, and finished with 15 of their 24 delegates. Last night, Sanders got less than half the vote he got in 2016, and will fall short of the number of delegates he won in 2016.

Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar can also be proud of their finish in New Hampshire. Both got over 20% of the vote, and both come out of the state with several delegates. They will now claim they are the candidate that can beat Sanders and Trump. The problem is that neither has much presence in Nevada, South Carolina, or the 14 Super Tuesday states. It remains to be seen whether their good showing in New Hampshire will translate to votes in those other states.

The big losers of the night were Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. Neither came close to the top three, and neither will take any of the delegates available in New Hampshire. That's disappointing for Warren (who is from a neighboring state) and Biden (who has been considered the race leader).

REMINDER -- This race is far from over. There are 48 states and several territories that have yet to vote, and none of the top candidates can be counted out yet.

Latest New Hampshire Polls Predict Sanders Finishing 1st

The chart above is from RealClearPolitics. It shows the three latest polls on the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary race. Bernie Sanders leads in all three polls and Pete Buttigieg is second in all of those polls. The yellow line on the chart shows the average of the three polls.

What Will The New Hampshire Democratic Primary Tell Us?

Will the New Hampshire primary critically affect the Democratic race for the presidential nomination?

Some say it won't because it is a small and mostly white state with only 24 pledged delegates. Others say it will because it could have an effect on how voters in other states cast their ballots.

Frankly, I'm not sure. But Jennifer Rubin has written an interesting article in The Washington Post. She says there are five questions that could be answered by the results of the New Hampshire primary.

Here are those five questions:

First, does Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have a low ceiling? In Iowa, Sanders did not bring in droves of new voters. In New Hampshire polling, he seems to have plateaued. In the debate he pitched his message squarely to the ultra-progressive wing of the party. If he does not break through to win a state in which he has been the overwhelming favorite (winning 60 percent in the 2016 primary), that will be a sign his prospects are limited. His opponents still have not done a very good job to date hitting Sanders as a rigid ideologue who continually votes against widely popular legislation. He is expert at making the perfect the enemy of the good, something that delights his followers but bodes ill for expanding his base. Unlike his rival senators, he voted against the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. He also voted against his party multiple times when it came to funding bills to keep the government open (which included items such as emergency funding for Puerto Rico and opioid treatment). A comfortable Sanders win should be a wake-up call for his opponents.

Second, will Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) fade? She once was dominating in the polls and the debates; she’s now generally in third or fourth place in state polling. Her debate performance on Friday, with the exception of an energetic response on race, was adequate but nothing special. If she places third in the first two contests, it is not clear what her path to victory would be. That does not mean she will drop out, but it may mean Sanders can finally consolidate the far-left vote.

Third, why not Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)? She has had several phenomenal debate performances in a row. Her campaign reported that she had raised a $2 million in less than 24 hours following the debate, suggesting she will have some resources to continue on. She can be formidable: No one is better than Klobuchar at taking down Sanders for ideological extremism and former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg for lack of experience. Her feisty demeanor and moderate policy seem perfectly suited for a battle against President Trump. And yet she seems fenced in by Buttigieg and former vice president Joe Biden. In New Hampshire she may be the compromise choice for voters who think Biden is too seasoned and Buttigieg isn’t seasoned enough. She certainly does not need to win in New Hampshire, but a third-place finish or higher would supercharge her campaign.

Fourth, does New Hampshire throw Biden a lifeline? He surprisingly lowered expectations with a prediction in his first debate answer that he would not win in the Granite State, but a third-place finish or an underwhelming performance from Buttigieg could keep Biden’s hopes alive in Nevada and South Carolina. On Friday night he made a strong case that he has the best relationship with African American voters and is, by far, the candidate who is most comfortable with and expert on national security.

Fifth, do Democrats need to call on Mike Bloomberg? A big win for Sanders and — or — a muddle among the moderates in the race (Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar) likely will send establishment Democrats, however prematurely, into a frenzy. The terror about nominating Sanders, and thereby giving Trump four more years, is already palpable among some elected officials, donors and ordinary voters. In the early four states, Bloomberg benefits either from a strong Sanders showing (sending a signal that Democrats need a stronger moderate) or a split verdict (e.g., Buttigieg in Iowa, Sanders in New Hampshire, Warren in Nevada, Biden in South Carolina). No one should underestimate a candidate who is flooding the zone with ads and has more than 2,000 staffers around the country. Yes, this really could come down to a face-off between two white, male septuagenarians from the northeastern seaboard.

Two new Polls Show Sanders Leading In New Hampshire

The chart above reflects the results of the NBC News / Marist Poll done between February 4th and 6th of 709 likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, with a 4.7 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the CNN / University of New Hampshire Poll -- done between February 4th and 7th of 365 likely Democratic voters in New Hampshire, with a 5.1 point margin of error.

New CBS News Poll For Democrats In Iowa/N. Hampshire

These charts are from a new CBS News / YouGov Poll in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire. The polls were done between December 27th and January 3rd in both states. They questioned 953 Democrats and Leaners in Iowa (with a 3.8 point margin of error) and 519 Democrats and Leaners in New Hampshire (with a 5.3 point margin of error).

They also predicted the number of delegates that would be awarded if the caucus and primary actually broke down according to the poll. If that happened, then the delegate count after these states voted would be -- Sanders 21, Biden 20, Warren 13, and Buttigieg 11.

New Hampshire Now Looks Like A 4-Way Race For Dems

The chart above reflects the results of the new Quinnipiac University Poll in New Hampshire. They questioned 1,134 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire between November 6th and 10th. The margin of error is 3.8 points.

Previous polls have shown both Biden and Warren with significant leads in New Hampshire. But the race is evidently still very fluid -- with voters still considering who they will finally vote for. This most recent poll shows a four person race between Biden, Warren, Buttigieg, and Sanders. There is only a 6-point gap between Biden (leading) and Sanders (in fourth).

While the polling was being done, the news that Bloomberg might run was broken in the media. This poll then asked 636 Democratic voters if they would vote for Bloomberg. The results are in the chart below (with a 5 point margin of error).

These are not good numbers for Bloomberg. He would have a lot of work to do to become viable in New Hampshire.

The Early States All Look Different For Democrats

This chart reflects the results of a CBS News Battleground / YouGov Poll -- done between October 3rd and 11th of a sample of 729 registered voters in Iowa, with a 4.6 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of a CBS News Battleground / YouGov Poll -- done between October 3rd and 11th of a sample of 506 registered voters in New Hampshire, with a 5.4 point margin of error.

This chart reflects the results of a CBS News Battleground / YouGov Poll - done between October 3rd and 11th of a sample of 915 registered voters in South Carolina, with a 3.9 point margin of error.

The polls in these three early states look radically different. In Iowa, Warren, Biden, and Sanders are in a virtual tie. In New Hampshire, Warren holds a substantial lead. And in South Carolina, Biden holds a substantial lead.

If these numbers hold, it won't be until Super Tuesday in early March that we get a real view of how the race shapes up.

Warren Is In First Place In New New Hampshire Poll

This chart reflects the results of the new Monmouth University Poll -- done between September 17th and 21st of a sample of 401 New Hampshire voters likely to participate in the New Hampshire primary. The margin of error is 4.9 points.

This new poll has Elizabeth Warren moving into first place -- 2 points above Joe Biden, and 15 points above Bernie Sanders. This is good news for the Warren campaign, after another poll showed her also moving into first place in Iowa last week.

There's still a few months before the voting begins, but Warren's growth doesn't seem to be a flash-in-the-pan (like that earlier of O'Rourke, Harris, and Buttigieg). Her growth in support has been slow and steady, and she may well be able to build on it.

The current support is represented by the blue bars. The gray bars show the support each candidate had in May of this year. Note that Warren has gained 19 points since May, while Biden has lost 11 points and Sanders has lost 6 points.

NOTE -- Only candidates receiving at least 1% support were included in the chart.

New Poll Shows Sanders Losing Support In New Hampshire

The chart above reflects the latest results from the University of New Hampshire / CNN Poll -- done between July 8th and 15th of 386 likely voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, with a 5 point margin of error. The blue bars show the current support for each of the leading Democrats. The green bars show the support they had in April.

New Hampshire is a critical state for Bernie Sanders. He won over 60% of the primary vote there in 2016, showing Democrats he was a serious candidate. That victory propelled him to other state wins, even though he came up short in the end (losing to Hillary Clinton).

But 2018 is a different story. There are many more candidates running, including another true progressive -- Elizabeth Warren. It is starting to look like Sanders may not win again in New Hampshire, and may even finish third or fourth in that state.

Note that in April, Sanders had about 30% support from New Hampshire Democrats. By July, that support had fallen to 19% -- a drop of 11 points.

Three other candidates also saw their fortunes drop in New Hampshire -- Buttigieg (by 5 points), Booker (by 1 point), and O'Rourke (by 1 point).

The other three leading candidates have gained support since April -- Biden (gained 6 points), Warren (gained 14 points), and Harris (gained 5 points).

New Hampshire Poll Signals Trouble For Sanders Campaign

The charts above Are from the St. Anselm College Poll -- done between July 10th and 12th of 351 registered voters likely to vote in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. It has a margin of error of 5.2 points.

In 2016, New Hampshire was an important state for Bernie Sanders. He won the primary there easily, getting slightly more than 60% of the vote. It showed he was a serious candidate, and propelled him to victories in other states.

New Hampshire looks far different for Sanders in the current campaign. As the charts show, he is having trouble getting even 10% of the New Hampshire Democratic vote, and trails four other candidates -- Joe Biden (20.8%), Kamala Harris (17.5%), Elizabeth Warren (16.7%), and Pete Buttigieg (11.5%).

This signals trouble for the Sanders campaign in 2020. If he cannot win in New Hampshire (a neighboring state), or at least make a strong showing there, then his chances to secure the nomination look very dim.

Biden Leads In New Polls In N. Hampshire And S. Carolina

The two charts above are from the Tel Opinion Research Poll of New Hampshire Democrats and Democratically-leaning Independents. About 600 voters were questioned between May 20th and 22nd, and the poll has a 4 point margin of error.

The two charts above are from the Tel Opinion Research Poll of South Carolina Democrats and Democratically-leaning Independents. They questioned 600 voters between May 22nd and 24th, and the poll has a 4 point margin of error.

The polls show Biden has a 21 point lead over Sanders in New Hampshire, and a 27 point lead over Sanders in South Carolina -- and in both states, Warren is nipping at Sanders' heels.

South Carolina is not a surprise. Sanders lost it in 2016, and is likely to lose there again in 2020. But New Hampshire is a big surprise for me. Sanders won over 60% of the New Hampshire vote in 2016, and to remain a viable candidate in 2020, he needs to win there again. Trailing by more than 20 points could signal that the Sanders campaign is in trouble.

NOTE -- In these polls, voters were not given a list of candidates to choose from. Instead, they were asked simply -- Who would you like to see win the Democratic presidential nomination?

N. Hampshire Dems Give Most Support To Only 5 Candidates

The chart above reflects the results of a new Monmouth University Poll. The poll questioned 376 Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire between May 2nd and 7th, and has a margin of error of 5.1 points.

The most interesting part to me is that only 5 candidates have more than 2% support, and those 5 have cornered 77% of the support from base Democrats. They are Joe Biden (36%), Bernie Sanders (18%), Pete Buttigieg (9%), Elizabeth Warren (8%), and Kamala Harris (6%).

Also interesting is that the supporters of Bernie Sanders in 2016 have not flocked back to his campaign. In 2016, he got 60.14% of the Democratic primary vote in New Hampshire. His current 18% is far below that.

Democratic Candidate Polls For Iowa And New Hampshire

This chart reflects the results of a Monmouth University Poll -- done between April 4th and 9th of 351 voters likely to participate in the Democratic caucus in Iowa. The margin of error is 5.2 points.

This chart reflects the results of the Saint Anselm College Poll -- done between April 3rd and 8th of 326 registered voters who indicated they would vote in the New Hampshire primary. The margin of error is 5.4 points.

Biden Currently Leads Among New Hampshire Democrats

The charts above are from a University Of Massachusetts Amherst Poll -- done between February 7th and 15th of 600 registered voters in New Hampshire. The margin of error for Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents is 6.4 points.

In 2016, Bernie Sanders won big in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. He got 60.14% of the vote to 37.68% for Hillary Clinton. But if the primary was held right now, he would not repeat that feat. Joe Biden, even though he is not yet an official candidate, would finish first with 32% of Democratic vote (and 24% of Independents). Sanders would be second with 16% of Democrats and 21% of Independents.

It seems to be making a difference that other progressives are in the race this time. Both Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris also draw double-digit support.

The second chart could also show why Biden is strong. About 37% say the most important thing is nominating a candidate that can beat Donald Trump, while only 24% say the most important thing is a candidate that shares their views.

"Right To Work" - A Comparison Of Two States

For years now, the Republicans have been trying to claim that "right to work" laws are good for American workers. To put it mildly, that is a ridiculous lie. Those laws are good only for corporations (and other businesses that want to hurt labor unions, and actually hurt workers.

Ross Eisenbrey and Teresa Kroeger at the Economic Policy Institute have written an excellent article comparing two states -- Indiana (which has a "right to work" law) and New Hampshire (which does not). Here is what they had to say:

In 2011 and 2012 two states, New Hampshire and Indiana, debated the same bill: so-called “right-to-work” legislation, pushed by corporate lobbyists and the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), designed to weaken unions financially and pave the way for greater corporate dominance of state politics. New Hampshire’s governor vetoed the bill in 2011. Indiana, by contrast, enacted it in 2012. It is instructive to compare the two states. By almost any measure, the economy of New Hampshire is stronger and its citizens are better off, on average, than the citizens of Indiana. Right-to-work did not improve the Indiana economy relative to New Hampshire’s, and no one should be fooled into thinking that passing right-to-work now will improve the New Hampshire economy.

So-called “right-to-work” laws prohibits unions and employers from agreeing to collective bargaining agreements that require employees covered by the agreement to pay their fair share of the costs of negotiating and enforcing it. The only right that “right-to-work” creates is the right for free riders to get the benefit of higher union wages and protections against unfair discipline without contributing any dues or fees for that privilege.

EPI published two reports critical of the New Hampshire legislation, one in 2011 and another in 2012, pointing out that the only real purpose and effects of these laws are lowering wages and weakening unions. As the figure above suggests, such laws do nothing to create jobs, and they don’t give anyone a right to work, but they are associated with lower wages—lower on average by more than 3 percent, or $1,500 per worker.

Now, New Hampshire’s legislature is once again debating a right-to-work bill. The bill’s sponsors make claims it will improve New Hampshire’s business climate and bring new jobs to the state, but there is no truth to this. Job growth in Indiana since it passed right-to-work has been no better than in New Hampshire.

At 2.7 percent, New Hampshire has the nation’s lowest unemployment rate. Indiana’s unemployment rate is 4.2 percent.

Wages are far higher in New Hampshire than Indiana. The median hourly wage was $16.50 in Indiana and $19.17 in New Hampshire over the first 11 months of 2016. The mean hourly wage was $21.27 in Indiana but $25.21 in New Hampshire.

New Hampshire has the lowest poverty rate in the country: 8.2 percent. Indiana’s poverty rate is 14.5 percent, and ranked 26th. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2015, Indiana had a per capita personal income (PCPI) of $41,940. This PCPI ranked 36th in the United States and was 87 percent of the national average, $48,112.  New Hampshire’s per capita income was 33 percent higher than Indiana’s: $55,905, ranked 9th in the nation, and 116 percent of the national average.

It is important to consider whether right-to-work is somehow an advantage to a state with regard to the economy of the future, which most economists agree will be a knowledge-driven economy. The Kauffman Foundation and the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation have been ranking states in a New Economy Index for many years based on factors such as economic dynamism, employment in high-value-added manufacturing, educational attainment of the workforce, and technological innovation capacity. Measured before and after Indiana passed its right to work law, Indiana’s rank fell from 35th in the nation in 2010 to 38th in 2014. New Hampshire ranked number 11 in both 2010 and 2014. Only two of the top 15 states are right-to-work. . . .

Simply put, there’s no rationale for passing this legislation, except to weaken unions politically and decrease the ability of workers to bargain for higher wages and stronger workplace protections.

Michelle Obama's Powerful Rebuke Of Trump's Misogyny

It's been a bad week for Donald Trump as a flood of women are now coming forth to expose his past misogynistic behavior and history of sexually assaulting women. This photo

Many people are now rebuking "the Donald" about this behavior, but perhaps none more effectively that First Lady Michelle Obama. Here is what she had to say when speaking to New Hampshire voters on Thursday:

I can't believe it's just a few weeks before Election Day as we come together to support the next president and vice president of the United States, Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. And New Hampshire is going to be important, as always. So I'm going to get a little serious here, because I think we can all agree that this has been a rough week in an already rough election. This week has been particularly interesting for me personally because it has been a week of profound contrast.

See, on Tuesday at the White House we celebrated the Internationa Day of the Girl and Let Girls Learn and it was a wonderful celebration. It was the last event that I'm going to be doing as first lady for Let Girls Learn and I had the pleasure of spending hours talking to some of the most amazing young women you will ever meet — young girls here in the U.S. and all around the world. And we talked about their hopes and their dreams. We talked about their aspirations. See, many of these girls have faced unthinkable obstacles just to attend school. Jeopardizing their personal safety, their freedom, risking the rejection of their families and communities.

So, I thought it would be important to remind these young women how valuable and precious they are. I wanted them to understand that the measure of any society is how it treats its women and girls. And I told them that they deserve to be treated with dignity and respect, and I told them that they should disregard anyone who demeans or devalues them, and that they should make their voices heard in the world. And I walked away feeling so inspired, just like I'm inspired by all the young people here, and I was so uplifted by these girls.

That was Tuesday. And now here I am out on the campaign trail in an election where we have consistently been hearing hurtful, hateful language about women. Language that has been painful for so many of us, not just as women, but as parents trying to protect our children and raise them to be caring, respectful adults, and as citizens who think our nation's leaders should meet basic standards of human decency. The fact is that, in this election, we have a candidate for president of the United States who over the course of his lifetime, and the course of this campaign, has said things about women that are so shocking, so demeaning that I simply will not repeat anything here today. And last week, we saw this candidate actually bragging about sexually assaulting women. I can't believe that I'm saying that a candidate for president of the United States has bragged about sexually assaulting women. And I have to tell you that I can't stop thinking about this. It has shaken me to my core in a way that I couldn't have predicted.

So, while I'd love nothing more than to pretend like this isn't happening and come out here and do my normal campaign speech, it would be dishonest and disingenuous to me to just move on to the next thing like this was all just a bad dream. This is not something that we can ignore. This is not something that we can sweep under the rug as just another disturbing footnote in a sad election season because this was not just a lewd conversation. This wasn't just locker room banter. This was a powerful individual speaking freely and openly about sexually predatory behavior. And actually bragging about kissing and groping women using language so obscene that many of us worried about our children hearing it when we turned on the TV. And to make matters worse it now seems very clear that this isn't an isolated incident. It's one of countless examples of how he has treated women his whole life.

And I have to tell you that I listen to all of this, and I feel it so personally. And I'm sure that many of you do, too, particularly the women. The shameful comments about our bodies. The disrespect of our ambitions and intellect. The belief that you can do anything you want to a woman. It is cruel. It's frightening. And the truth is, it hurts. It hurts. It's like that sick, sinking feeling you get when you're walking down the street, minding your own business, and some guy yells out vulgar words about your body. Or when you see that guy at work that stands just a little too close, stares a little too long, and makes you feel uncomfortable in your own skin. It's that feeling of terror and violation that too many women have felt when someone has grabbed them or forced himself on them, and they've said no, but he didn't listen. Something that we know happens on college campuses and countless other places every single day. It reminds us of stories we've heard from our mothers and grandmothers about how back in their day the boss could say and do whatever he pleased to the women in the office. And even though they worked so hard, jumped over every hurdle to prove themselves, it was never enough. We thought all of that was ancient history, didn't we?

And so many have worked for so many years to end this kind of violence and abuse and disrespect but here we are. In 2016 and we're hearing these exact same things every day of the campaign trail. We are drowning in it. And all of us are doing what women have always done. We're trying to keep our heads above water. Just trying to get through it, trying to pretend like this doesn't really bother us. Maybe because we think that admitting how much it hurts makes us as women look weak. Maybe we're afraid to be that vulnerable. Maybe we've grown accustomed to swallowing these emotions and staying quiet because we've seen that people often won't take our word over his. Or maybe we don't want to believe that there are still people out there who think so little of us as women. Too many are treating this as just another day's headline. As if our outrage is overblown or unwarranted. As if this is normal. Just politics as usual.

But New Hampshire, be clear; this is not normal. This is not politics as usual. This is disgraceful. It is intolerable and it doesn't matter what party you belong to — Democrat, Republican, Independent — no woman deserves to be treated this way. None of us deserve this kind of abuse. And I know it's a campaign, but this isn't about politics. It's about basic human decency. It's about right and wrong and we simply cannot endure this or expose our children to this any longer. Not for another minute, let alone for four years. Now is the time for all of us to stand up and say "enough is enough."

This has got to stop right now because consider this: If all of this is painful to us as grown women, what do you think this is doing to our children? What messages are little girls hearing about who they should look like, how they should act? What lessons are they learning about their value as professionals, as human beings? About their dreams and aspirations? And how is this affecting men and boys in this country because I can tell you that the men in my life do not talk about women like this and I know that my family is not unusual. And to dismiss this as everyday locker room talk is an insult to decent men everywhere. The men that you and I know don't treat women this way, they are loving fathers who are sickened by the thought of their daughters being exposed to this kind of vicious language about women. They are husbands and brothers and sons who don't tolerate women being treated and demeaned and disrespected. And, like us, these men are worried about the impact this election is having on our boys who are looking for role models for what it means to be a man.

In fact, someone recently told me a story about their 6-year-old son who one day was watching the news, they were watching the news together, and the little boy out of the blue said, "I think Hillary Clinton will be president." And his mom said, "well why do you say that?" And this little 6-year-old said, "because the other guy called someone a piggy." And he said, "you cannot be president if you call someone a piggy." So even a 6-year-old knows better. A 6-year-old knows that this is not how adults behave, this is not how decent human beings behave, and this is certainly not how someone who wants to be president of the United States behaves.

Because let's be very clear, strong men, strong men, men who are truly role models don't need to put down women to make themselves feel powerful. People who are truly strong lift others up. People who are truly powerful bring others together and that is what we need in our next president. We need someone who is a uniting force in this country. We need someone who will heal the wounds that divide us. Someone who truly cares about us and our children. Someone with strength and compassion to lead this country forward. And let me tell you I am here today because I believe with all of my heart that Hillary Clinton will be that president.

See, we know that Hillary is the right person for the job because we've seen her character and commitment not just in this campaign but over the course of her entire life. The fact is that Hillary embodies so many of the values that we try so hard to teach our young people. We tell our young people: work hard in school, get a good education. We encourage them to use that education to help others which is exactly what Hillary did with her college and law degrees, advocating for kids with disabilities, fighting for children's health care as first lady, affordable childcare in the Senate. We teach our kids the value of being a team player, which is what Hillary exemplified when she lost the 2008 election and actually agreed to work for her opponent as our secretary of State earning sky-high approval ratings serving her country once again. We also teach our kids that you don't take shortcuts in life, and you strive for meaningful success in whatever job you do. Well, Hillary has been a lawyer, a law professor, First Lady of Arkansas, First Lady of the United States, a U.S. Senator, Secretary of State. And she has been successful in every role, gaining more experience and exposure to the presidency than any candidate in our lifetime. More than Barack. More than Bill. And, yes, she happens to be a woman.

And finally, we teach our kids that when you hit challenges in life you don't give up, you stick with it. Well during her four years as secretary of State alone, Hillary has faced her share of challenges. She's traveled to 112 countries, negotiated a ceasefire, a peace agreement, a release of dissidents, she spent 11 hours testifying before a Congressional committee. We know that when things get tough, Hillary doesn't complain, she doesn't blame others, she doesn't abandon ship for something easier. No, Hillary Clinton has never quit on anything in her life.

So, in Hillary we have a candidate who has dedicated her life to public service. Someone who has waited her turn and helped out while waiting. She is an outstanding mother. She has raised a phenomenal young woman. She is a loving, loyal wife. She is a devoted daughter who cared for her mother until her final days. And if any of us had raised a daughter like Hillary Clinton we would be so proud. We would be proud. And regardless of who her opponent might be, no one could be more qualified for this job than Hillary, no one.

And in this election, if we turn away from her, if we just stand by and allow her opponent to be elected then what are we teaching our children about the values they should hold, about the kind of life they should lead? What are we saying? In our hearts, in our hearts, we all know that if we let Hillary's opponent win this election then we are sending a clear message to our kids that everything they're seeing and hearing is perfectly okay. We are validating it. We are endorsing it. We are telling our sons that it's okay to humiliate women. We're telling our daughters that this is how they deserve to be treated. We're all our kids that bigotry and bullying are perfectly acceptable in the leader of their country. Is that what we want for our children?

And remember, we won't just be setting a bad example for our kids, but for our entire world. Because for so long America has been a model for countries across the globe — pushing them to educate their girls, insisting that they give more rights to their women. But if we have a president who routinely degrades women, who brags about sexually assaulting women, then how can we maintain our moral authority in the world? How can we continue to be a beacon of freedom and justice and human dignity? Well, fortunately, New Hampshire, here's the beauty: we have everything we need to stop this madness. You see while our mothers and grandmothers were often powerless to change their circumstances, today we, as women, have all the power we need to determine the outcome of this election. We have knowledge. We have a voice. We have a vote. And November the 8th, we as women, we as Americans, we as decent human beings, can come together and declare that enough is enough, that we do not tolerate this kind of behavior in this country.

Remember this: In 2012 women's votes were the difference between Barack winning and losing in key swing states, including right here in New Hampshire. So, for anyone who might be thinking that your one vote doesn't really matter, or that one person can't really make a difference consider this: back in 2012 Barack won New Hampshire by about 40,000 votes, which sounds like a lot, but when you break that number down the difference between winning and losing this state was about 66 votes per precinct. Just take that in. If 66 people each precinct had gone the other way, Barack would have lost.

So, each of you right here today could help swing an entire precinct and win this election for Hillary just by getting yourselves, your family, and your friends, and neighbors out to vote. You can do it right here. But you could also help swing an entire precinct for Hillary's opponent with a protest vote or by staying home out of frustration because here's the truth: Either Hillary Clinton or her opponent will be elected president this year. And if you vote for someone other than Hillary or if you don't vote at all then you are helping to elect her opponent. And just think about how you will feel if that happens. Imagine waking up on November the 9th and looking into the eyes of your daughter or son or looking into your own eyes as you stare into the mirror. Imagine how you'll feel if you stayed home, or if you didn't do everything possible to elect Hillary. We simply cannot let that happen. We cannot allow ourselves to be so disgusted that we just shut off the TV and walk away and we can't just sit around wringing our hands. No, we need to recover from our shock and depression and do what women have always done in this country. We need you to roll up your sleeves, we need to get to work! Because remember this, when they go low, we go... [audience yells "high"] Yes we do.

And voting ourselves is a great start, but we also have to step up and start organizing. So, we need you to make calls and knock on doors and get folks to the polls on Election Day and sign up to volunteer with one of the Hillary campaign folks who are here today just waiting for you to step up. And young people and not so young people get on social media, share your own story of why this election matters. Why it should matter for all people of conscience in this country. There is so much at stake in this election. See, the choice you make November 8th could determine whether we have a president who treats people with respect or not. A president who will fight for kids, for good schools, for good jobs, for our families, or not. A president who thinks that women deserve the right to make our own choices about our bodies and our health or not. That's just a little bit of what's at stake so we cannot afford to be tired or turned off and we cannot afford to stay home on Election Day. Because on November the 8th we have the power to show our children that America's greatness comes from recognizing the innate dignity and worth of all our people. On November the 8th we can show our children that this country is big enough to have a place for us all: men and women, folks of every background and walk of life. And that each of us is a precious part of this great American story and we are always stronger together.

(This photo of Michelle Obama was found at thecustodianonline.com.)

Democrats Need To Put More Emphasis On Senate Races

The chart above shows the poll averages (from RealClearPolitics) in 12 states with a Republican senator up for re-election this year. The Democrats need to take five of these seats to once again control the U.S. Senate.

Currently, Democrats have a significant lead in two of those races -- Wisconsin and Illinois. They are close in four other states, with some polls showing them leading and some showing them behind -- Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Nevada. The other six races seem to be favoring Republicans rather significantly right now --Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, and Arkansas.

If Hillary Clinton is elected, and I think she will be, she is going to need the Senate to be controlled by Democrats. Without that, she won't be able to do much. The Republicans will just do four years of obstructing anything she tries to do (just like they have done for the last few years to President Obama).

It seems obvious to me that the Democrats need to put more emphasis on many of these Senate seats.