Biden Leads Trump In Three Important Swing States

The chart above reflects the results of a recent Public Policy Polling survey in three important swing states. Between September 25th and 27th, they interviewed 679 Michigan voters, 673 Pennsylvania voters, and 673 Wisconsin voters. The margin of error was 3.8 points in all three states.

Medical Quack To Run For GOP Senate Nomination In Pa.

Trump's favorite candidate for the Senate in Pennsylvania (Sean Parnell) has dropped out of the race after being accused of wife-beating. But have no fear. The GOP has someone just as bad to replace him. Medical quack, Dr. Oz, has tossed his hat in the ring.

Here's how Ja'han Jones at MSNBC.com describes it:

Mehmet Oz, known as “Dr. Oz” to the daytime television talk show crowd, entered the Republican primary for Senate in Pennsylvaniaon Tuesday — and there’s no better time for me to remind you how much of a quack he is.

Oz, who is reportedly a longtime New Jersey resident, announced his bid after another Republican in the race, Sean Parnell, suspended his campaign last week. Parnell, who received former President Donald Trump’s endorsement in September, dropped out of the race after his estranged wife accused him of abusing her and their children.

Oz must have seen that as his calling, as he’s now among several candidates vying to win the GOP primary and face off against the leading Democrat for the Senate seat being vacated by two-term Republican Pat Toomey.

In the Washington Examiner op-ed announcing his candidacy, Oz tried to pitch himself as a trustworthy medical authority to the Republican base by regurgitating conservative talking points promising “freedom” from Covid-19 safety protocols. The doctor’s candidacy, according to his op-ed, is premised on his pandemic response proposals. (Spoiler alert: They’re terrible.)

“The arrogant, closed-minded people in charge closed our parks, shuttered our schools, shut down our businesses, and took away our freedom,” Oz wrote, adding, “Doctors are trained to tell it like it is because you deserve to hear our best advice and make your own decisions. It’s why I have fought the establishment my whole career.”

But Oz, a frequent Fox News guest, has been widely discredited for his health claims about Covid and other matters. His candidacy and popular punditry is just the latest sign — in fact, a perfect symbol — of the Republican Party’s embrace of misinformation and its obsession with made-for-TV figures, especially old ones who appear between catheter commercials on Fox News. 

I invite you to check out this nonexhaustive list from Business Insider that includes some of the most outlandish, baseless and false claims Oz has made during his time as a TV host. He’s frequently pitched unproven concoctions as miracle solutions for all sorts of maladies, and he’s been called to Congress to answer for his false claims. 

Just last year, he called for schools to reopen because doing so might “only cost us 2 to 3 percent, in terms of total mortality.” His disregard for life earned so much backlash that he apologized soon after making the comments.

Oz is a danger to public health who spreads his pseudoscientific theories far and wide. In that sense, he’s the perfect candidate for a Republican Party that’s just as enthralled by medical disinformation as he is.

Fox Poll Has Joe Biden Leading Donald Trump By Large Margins In Michigan, Minnesota, & Pennsylvania

The chart above reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between July 18th and 20th of a sample of 756 Michigan voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the Fox News Poll -- done between July 18th and 20th of a sample of 776 Minnesota voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

The chart above reflects the results of the Fox New Poll -- done between July 18th and 20th of a sample of 793 Pennsylvania voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

Donald Trump is trailing badly in these important battleground states -- by 9 points in Michigan, by 13 points in Minnesota, and by 11 points in Pennsylvania. Trump carried Michigan and Pennsylvania by a tiny margin in 2016, and must do that again to be re-elected. But he has a lot of work to do to catch up with Biden in those states.

New Poll Shows Trump Losing Ground In Battleground States

These charts are from the New York Times / Siena College Poll -- done between June 8th and 18th of 3,870 registered voters in Battleground States (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina). The poll's margin of error for all the states is 1.8 points -- and for each state is between 4.1 and 4.6 points.

Trump won all six of these states in 2016, and that allowed him to squeak out an Electoral College win. But it is distinctly possible that he could lose all of them this year. He's looking more and more like a one term president.

Biden Leads By 8 Points In Michigan And Pennsylvania

This chart is from a new Fox News Poll -- done between April 18th and 21st of 801 Michigan voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

This chart is fro a new Fox News Poll -- done between April 18th and 21st of 803 Pennsylvania voters, with a 3.5 point margin of error.

These are both battleground states that Trump carried in 2016. He needs to win them again to stay in the White House, but currently trails Joe Biden by 8 points in both states.

Trump Is Not Doing Well In Four Critical Swing States

These charts reflect the results of the Cook Political Report / Kaiser Family Foundation Poll -- done between September 23rd and October 15th of registered voters in four battleground states. They questioned 767 voters in Michigan, 958 voters in Minnesota, 752 voters in Pennsylvania, and 745 voters in Wisconsin. The margin of error was 4 points in all four states.

These four states are going to be critical for both parties in the 2020 general election. In 2016, Trump won three of them and finished close in the other. He will need to repeat that performance to get re-elected.

Right now, it doesn't look like he could do that. The voters in all four states don't approve of the job he is doing. They also disapprove of how he's handling healthcare, immigration, foreign trade, and foreign policy -- and they are split on how he's handling the economy.

Trump is going to have to do a lot better than this in these states to get re-elected.

Pennsylvania Dems See Biden As Best Hope To Beat Trump

These charts reflect the results of a new Quinnipiac University Poll. They questioned 978 registered voters in Pennsylvania (including 431 registered Democrats). The margin of error for all voters was 4.2 points, and for Democrats was 6.2 points.

The Democrats overwhelmingly believe that Joe Biden has the best chance to beat Donald Trump. That's the opinion of 61% of them. Bernie Sanders was in second place -- but far behind at only 6%.

Biden also has the most current support in Pennsylvania. About 39% of Democrats say they would vote for him. Others getting significant support were Sanders (13%), Harris (8%), Warren (8%), Buttigieg (6%), and Booker (5%).

The chart below was done of all voters. It shows that Biden would easily defeat Trump by double-digits (11 points) if the election was right now (53% to 42%). Sanders would win by 7 points, and Warren by 3 points.

Presidential Polls In Pennsylvania And Nevada

This Emerson College Poll was done March 26th and 28th of 808 Pennsylvania registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.4 points. It included 359 Democrats, with a margin of error of 5.1 points.

This Emerson College Poll was done between March 28th and 30th of 719 registered voters in Nevada, with a 3.6 point margin of error. It included 310 Democrats, with a margin of error of 5.5 points.

Pennsylvania District 18 Results Should Embarrass Trump

Pennsylvania's House District 18 is normally a very Republican district. Donald Trump carried it by 20 points in 2016 -- and Republican House candidates have for several elections carried it by a similar margin.

But enthusiasm by Democrats had the race polling much closer than that, so Trump made a special trip to the district to lend his support to the Republican candidate (Rick Saccone). He thought his visit would be what was needed to push that Republican to a win. Trump even told his supporters in the district that Saccone would easily win.

That didn't happen. Democrats had a good candidate in Conor Lamb (pictured), and the results last night were extremely close. As I write this, Lamb leads by 579 votes (113,111 for Lamb -- 112,532 for Saccone). There are about 1400 absentee ballots still to be counted. Saccone would need to get most of those absentee ballots, which are out in red counties -- but he has not been doing that well tonight and absentee ballots tend to favor Democrats more than election day ballots.

It looks like Lamb might actually squeak out a win in this very red district (although a recount is very likely), and that would be a major embarrassment for Trump (who has already bombed out once by supporting Roy Moore in Alabama). Of course, knowing Trump, he will just claim that Saccone was a weak candidate if he loses -- and if he somehow wins, Trump will claim all the credit.

But the truth of the matter is that Trump has no coattails, and it is doubtful he could actually help any Republican anywhere to win. I'm wondering after tonight if any Republican will even want Trump to come to their district to campaign.

UPDATE -- Conor Lamb pulled off the minor miracle. With all votes counted, the Democrat won by a scant 641 votes. Here are the final totals:

Conor Lamb (Democrat)...............113,720 (49.8%)
Rick Saccone (Republican)...............113,079 (49.6%)
Drew Miller (Libertarian)...............1,378 (0.6%)

Trump Is Losing Now In Michigan, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin

Although Donald Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, he did get enough electoral college votes to make him president. That was because he won three states that almost no one thought he would win -- Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

But that was last November. It looks like things have changed in those three states after a few months of his presidency. In Michigan, only 36% approve of the job he is doing while 55% disapprove. In Pennsylvania, about 33% approve while 52% disapprove. And in Wisconsin, about33% approve while 56% disapprove.

Those are some really terrible numbers, and unless Trump can improve them, there is little chance he could again carry those states. It also means he will have no coattails to help GOP candidates in 2018.

The Marist Michigan Poll was done between August 13th and 17th of a random state sample of 907 adults, and has a 3.3 point margin of error.

The Marist Pennsylvania Poll was done between August 13th and 17th of a random state sample of 915 adults, and has a 3.2 point margin of error.

The Marist Wisconsin Poll was done between August 13th and 17th of a random state sample of 910 adults, and has a 3.2 point margin of error.

New Polls For Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, & Ohio

From August 29 - September 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

• 761 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
• 751 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
• 775 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
• 778 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

New Polls For N. Hampshire, N. Carolina, And Pennsylvania

These are the latest polls in each of these three battleground states.

New Hampshire -- WMUR Granite State Poll (August 20-28) 559 voters (4.1 point moe)

North Carolina -- CBS News / YouGov Poll (August 30-September 2) 1088 voters (4 point moe)

Pennsylvania -- CBS News / YouGov Poll (August 30-September 2) 1091 voters (4.1 point moe)

Pennsylvania For Clinton -- Missouri & N. Carolina Toss-Ups

The ABC 27 News / Susquehanna Polling & Research Survey was done between July 31st and August 4th of a random sample of 772 likely voters in Pennsylvania, and has a 3.5 point margin of error.

The Public Policy Polling Survey was done between August 5th and 7th of a random sample of 830 likely voters in North Carolina, and has a margin of error of 3.4 points.

The Missouri Scout / Remington Research Group Poll was done on August 5th and 6th of a random sample of 1,280 likely voters in Missouri, and has a 3 point margin of error.

These polls show Hillary Clinton has a fairly comfortable 9 point lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania -- a state Trump is counting on to put him over the top. But there is even worse news in two other states. North Carolina and Missouri usually wind up in the Republican column, but that is now in doubt.

Clinton has a 2 point lead in North Carolina, while Trump leads by 2 in Missouri -- but both of those edges are within the poll's margin of error. That means the race is extremely close in both states, and could go either way.

Clinton Takes The Lead In Four Battleground States

Hillary Clinton is not just leading in the national polls. Four new polls in battleground states (states some think Republicans could win) show she has only jumped out to a lead in those states -- Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire.

The new polls give Clinton a 4.4 point lead in Florida, a 13 point lead in Pennsylvania, a 9.4 point lead in Michigan, and a 15 point lead in New Hampshire. This has to be disheartening news for Trump, because he must win in these states (especially Florida and Pennsylvania) to capture the presidency.

The polls are:

New Hampshire -- WBUR / MassINC Poll

Michigan -- Detroit News / WDIV Poll

Pennsylvania -- Franklin & Marshall College Poll

Florida -- Suffolk University Poll

Five Republican Senators That Could Be In Trouble

Five "swing state" Republican senators could well be in trouble in the coming election -- Ron Johnson, Kelly Ayotte, John McCain, Pat Toomey,  and Rob Portman. Johnson is trailing by 13 points to Russ Fiengold, and will probably lose.

All of the other four are virtually tied in their races (with a margin within the poll margin of error). It looks like the Democrats could well flip the Senate to their control this year.

Public Policy Polling interviewed 691 registered voters in Arizona, 578 in New Hampshire, 708 in Ohio, 980 in Pennsylvania, and 843 in Wisconsin on June 22nd and 23rd. The margins of error for the surveys are +/-3.7%, +/-4.1%, +/-3.7%, +/-3.1%, and +/-3.4% respectively. 

(The caricatures of Johnson, Ayotte, McCain, Toomey, and Portman are by DonkeyHotey.)

Rust Belt Middle Income Voters Are With Hillary Clinton

The cable news networks are all abuzz with the idea that Donald Trump will steal middle income (union) workers in the Rust Belt away from the Democrats (and Hillary Clinton). But as the top chart shows, that is not true -- at least for now. In the states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, those middle income voters still prefer Clinton over Trump by a 7 point margin.

The chart was made using results from a Bloomberg Politics / Purple Insights Poll -- done between May 18th and 24th of a sample of 803 middle income voters ($30k - $75k), with a margin of error of 3.5 points.

As the bottom chart shows, a plurality of those voters also expect Hillary Clinton to win the presidency.

April 26th States Make Their Presidential Preference Known

Yesterday's five-state primary turned out to be a big night for Hillary Clinton, as she won four out of the five states. She won big in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. She also won a closer victory in Connecticut. Bernie Sanders rather easily won Rhode Island.

Here are the results for each state:

CONNECTICUT
Clinton...............52%
Sanders...............47%

DELAWARE
Clinton...............60%
Sanders...............39%

MARYLAND
Clinton...............63%
Sanders...............33%

PENNSYLVANIA
Clinton...............56%
Sanders...............44%

RHODE ISLAND
Clinton...............43%
Sanders...............55%

But the important part of the night was what happened with the delegate totals. Here is how that stands, with some of Tuesday's delegates still to be determined (according to NBC News):

Primary/Caucus Delegates
Clinton...............1594
Sanders...............1297
difference...............297

Total Delegates
Clinton...............2117
Sanders...............1330
difference...............787

That means Hillary Clinton just needs to get 266 more delegates to win the nomination, while Bernie Sanders needs 1,053 more delegates. There are now 10 states left to vote (plus the District of Columbia, Virgin Islands, Guam, and Puerto Rico).

PPP Survey - Connecticut, Maryland, Pennsylvania, R. Island

Public Policy Polling has released its final surveys of four of the states voting today in Democratic primaries -- Maryland, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Their numbers, except for Maryland, look a little better for Sanders than some previous polls have shown. They have him four points ahead in Rhode Island, two points behind in Connecticut, and ten points down in Pennsylvania.

That means Sanders could win Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Delaware (which has not been polled). But the victories, if they happen, would just be moral victories -- and he needs to do much better than that. The truth is that to have a shot at the nomination, he needs to win 70% of the delegates in the remaining states -- and he will come far from doing that in any of the April 26th states.

Today's voting will just get Clinton closer to the Democratic nomination, and make it much harder for Sanders to compete.

Bernie Trails In Connecticut, Maryland, And Pennsylvania

Quinnipiac University Poll (April 12-18) 1037 likely voters

Emerson College Poll (April 10-11) 356 likely voters

Monmouth University Poll (April 18-20) 300 likely voters (5.7 point moe)

Public Policy Polling (April 15-17) 492 likely voters (4.4 point moe)

NBC 4 / Marist Poll (April 5-9) 775 likely voters (3.5 point moe)

Washington Post / Univ. of Maryland Poll (March 30-April 3) 539 likely voters (5.5 point moe)

Monmouth University Poll (April 17-19) 302 likely voters (5.6 point moe)

Franklin & Marshall Poll (April 11-18) 510 likely voters (5.3 point moe)

Fox News Poll (April 4-7) 805 likely voters (3.5 point moe)

Quinnipiac University Poll (March 30-April 4) 514 likely voters (4.3 point moe)

Harper Poll (April 2-3) 603 likely voters (4.0 point moe)

After the crushing defeat he suffered in the New York primary, Bernie Sanders chances of winning the Democratic nomination grew much slimmer. He would now have to win about 70% of the delegates in all of the remaining states to reach the magic number of delegates (2,383).

Five more states will go to the polls to vote next Tuesday (April 26th) -- Delaware, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. I'm not aware of any viable polls released for Delaware and Rhode Island, but the three states with the most delegates at stake have been polled -- and it doesn't look very good for Bernie. He not only won't get the required 70%, but will probably lose all three of those states.

Currently, Hillary Clinton has an average lead of 7.5 points in Connecticut, about 21.7 points in Maryland, and about 15.8 points in Pennsylvania. The Sanders campaign simply cannot afford to lose those three states, or even finish even with Clinton in them. That would just push Clinton closer to the nomination, and Sanders further from it.

Supreme Court Obstruction Could Cost GOP 8 Senate Seats

There are 34 Senate seats to be decided in the 2016 election, and 24 of them are currently held by Republicans. With the unhappiness of the public toward Congress in general, this gives the Democrats a very credible chance of flipping the Senate back to the control of the Democratic Party -- especially since presidential election years like 2016 normally have a much bigger turnout than off-year elections (and a larger turnout usually helps Democrats).

There are eight GOP senators that may be hurting their re-election chances -- Chuck Grassley (Iowa), Ron Johnson (Wisconsin), Rob Portman (Ohio), John McCain (Arizona), Roy Blunt (Missouri), Richard Burr (North Carolina), Kelly Ayotte (New Hampshire), and Pat Toomey (Pennsylvania). All eight of these senators have said they will refuse to even consider any nominee for the Supreme Court by President Obama. They want to leave the vacancy on that court until next year -- meaning the Supreme Court will have only eight members for the next year.

But if the new Public Policy Polling surveys of those states are any indication (and I believe they may well be), then these incumbent senators are playing with fire. A significant majority of voters in all eight states say the opening on the Supreme Court should be filled this year. And a large plurality in two of those states, and a majority of voters in the other six states, say they will be less likely to vote for the Republican incumbent if they go along with other Republicans in obstructing a nominee sent to the Senate by President Obama.

These senators are all in closely contested elections, and they don't need to be going against the wishes of the voters in their states -- but that seems to be exactly what they are doing.

IOWA (March 1-2) 574 registered voters (4.1 point moe).

WISCONSIN (February 22-23) 1,000 registered voters (3.1 point moe).

OHIO (February 19-21) 612 registered voters (4.0 point moe).

ARIZONA (March 1-2) 533 registered voters (4.3 point moe).

MISSOURI (March 1-2) 554 registered voters (4.2 point moe).

NORTH CAROLINA (March 1-2) 568 registered voters (4.1 point moe).

NEW HAMPSHIRE (February 22-23) 624 registered voters (3.9 point moe).

PENNSYLVANIA (February 19-21) 859 registered voters (3.3 point moe).