Trump Wins South Carolina (But Shows Some Weakness)

 

Donald Trump won the South Carolina Republican primary in a 60% to 40% decision over Nikki Haley. But he showed some weakness. Most pundits and polls had him winning upwards of 70% of the vote.

Exit polling showed where some of the weakness existed. Trump lost 53% of college educated voters, 41% of Republican women, 73% of moderates, 60% of Independents, and 54% of non-evangelicals.

I expect most of the Haley voters will hold their nose and vote for Trump in November, but it won't take many to vote Biden, vote third party, or just stay at home to deny him the presidency.

New Poll Has Trump With A 36 Point Lead In South Carolina

 This chart is from the Winthrop University Poll - done between February 2nd and 10th of 749 likely Republican primary voters, with a 3.58 point margin of error.

Republicans Overwhelmingly Want Trump As Their Candidate

 

The chart is from an Economist / YouGov Poll done between January 14th and 16th of a nationwide sample of Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents. (no moe given)

Haley Loses By Double-Digits In N.H. But Vows To Continue

In the race for the Republican presidential nomination, two Staes have now made their wishes known. Trump won the Iowa caucuses (with DeSanis and Haley finishing a distant second and third). After DeSantis dropped out of the race, Haley hoped to do much better in New Hampshire - by staying within single digits of Trump if not winning.

It did not happen. Haley finished slightly over 11 points behind Trump. Making matters even worse, half of her vote in the state came from Independents. She finished 50 points behind Trump among registered Republicans. This makes it almost impossible for her to actually win the GOP nomination.

However she has vowed to continue her campaign. The next GOP primary will be in her home state of South Carolina on February 24th. She is very likely to lose there, but will not drop out before the vote.

Haley staying in the primary (for at least the next month) is a good thing - at least for Democrats. Here's why:

* Haley again addressed Trump's mental problems on Tuesday night, and it is likely that she will continue to do that. Many of Trump's recent speeches have contained confusing statements, causing some to suspect his mental faculties are starting to deteriorate. It's not so easy for voters to overlook that with a Republican like Haley making the claim.

* Trump has a huge ego, and cannot stand to be opposed -- especially by a woman. He is sure to attack her personally many times, and that will just demonstrate his misogyny - reminding Independent women why they don't want to vote for him.

* Trump continuing to spend time and money fighting against Haley means less time and money for the fight against President Biden.

Court Found Trump Is A Sex Abuser - Haley Won't Admit It

The following post is by Jen Psaki at MSNBC.com:

Former President Donald Trump has ramped up his attacks on former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley ahead of the New Hampshire primary, weaponizing her South Asian heritage to spread “birther” conspiracy theories. In a Truth Social post, Trump referred to Haley by her birth name Nimarata (which he misspelled as Nimrada) and shared another post that suggested Haley is ineligible to run for president because her parents were not U.S. citizens when she was born.

Haley has responded with critiques of her own, slamming his support for raising the retirement age, increasing the federal gas tax, and adding to the national debt. Most recently, Haley attacked Trump’s and Biden’s ages, saying that most Americans “think that having two 80-year-olds running for president is not what they want.”

But apparently, she’s tongue-tied when it comes to Trump’s history of sexual abuse.

Earlier this week, CNN’s Dana Bash asked Haley how she felt about Trump being held liable for sexual abuse in the E. Jean Carroll defamation trial. “First of all, I haven’t paid attention to his cases and I’m not a lawyer,” Haley responded. “All I know is he’s innocent until proven guilty.”

It’s hard to believe Haley hasn’t been paying attention. But innocence isn’t the point here. Trump has already been found liable for sexually abusing Carroll. “The fact that Mr. Trump sexually abused — indeed raped — Ms. Carroll has been conclusively established,” noted New York Judge Lewis Kaplan.

Haley is still trying to walk that razor-thin line of running against Trump while not turning away his MAGA supporters.

Nikki Haley - Incredible Ignorance Or Political Cowardice?

Nikki Haley has been making the news lately with her denial of history. First she answered a question about the cause of the American Civil War without even mentioning slavery (which was the primary cause of the war). Then she goes on Fox News and makes the statement that this country has never been a racist country.

Frankly, I'm stunned! Did she skip all her classes about American history, or is she just incredibly ignorant?

Anyone who knows anything about American history knows that this country was founded as a racist country. For many years after the nation was founded, slavery was legal. And it was even written into the Constitution that Black slaves would only count as 3/5 of a person among the population.

It took a Civil War (and the Emancipation Proclamation) to overturn slavery. The it took a constitutional amendment to give rights to the former slaves. 

Even after that, Jim Crow and the Ku Klux Klan made sure most Blacks did not really have the right to vote or congregate with Whites in restaurants, hotels, buses, trains, and churches. This continued until the Civil Rights laws of the 1960's -- almost 200 years after the country was founded.

The truth is that the United States was a racist country when founded, and has a sad history of racism since that time. Even the election of a Black president (which some said was proof racism was over) just brought the virulent racists back out from under their rocks, and today they control a large part of the Republican Party.

That is why Haley made that dumb statement. It was an act of political cowardice. I don't believe all Republicans are racists, but a large number of them are. And with Trump backing them, the rest of the party are afraid to buck them. Haley knew if she told the truth, she would immediately lose a significant portion of the Republican vote.

The sad part is that she never had a chance at getting the racist vote anyway. It was always going to Trump (the person who made them openly proud to be racist again). And by denying the country's racism, she has cut herself off from the general public, who knows the nation still has a problem with racism. This is illustrated in the chart below. 

The chart above reflects the results of a new Economist / YouGov Poll -- done between January 14th and 16th of a nationwide sample of 1,660 adults (including 1,472 registered voters). The margin of error for adults is 3 points, and for registered voters is 2.8 points.

Nikki Haley Takes A Stand (SATIRE)

The inimitable Alexandra Petri of The Washington Post pokes fun at GOP candidate Nikki Haley for ignoring slavery as the cause of the Civil War:

The Grand Old Party seems to be in a reverse “Picture of Dorian Gray” situation. Glance in your history book and you can see a young, idealistic elephant confidently on the right side of the Civil War, eager to denounce slavery as a moral wrong. Then you look at the party present day, when the less-extreme candidate has to mince words about slaveryso as not to alienate the base! (I guess a reverse “Dorian Gray” situation is just a picture.)

But, look, “What caused the Civil War?” is just one of a whole host of straightforward questions that no GOP presidential candidate can hope to answer. I have taken the liberty of predicting Haley’s responses to analogous questions. Try this at home and you, too, can enjoy a fun, alarming word salad where “capitalism” and “limited government” are thrown in at intervals, like pecans. Happy 2024!

Who is the current president of the United States?

Capitalism, of course, is so important.

Was it good or bad that a mob descended on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, yelling “Hang Mike Pence” and trying to prevent certification of the presidential election?

(laughs) Don’t go easy on me! I think the Capitol is certainly, in the hearts of Americans, a place, and capitalism itself is so important. What do you think?

Do the villains in “Star Wars” seem like they’re based on Nazis?

(laughs) Wow, all right! Coming in with a real challenge! So, obviously, freedom is the most important thing. And we keep coming back to that question of, what can the government tell you to do or not do? I think it comes down to capitalism, of course, is good, and we need to do things to make sure that unaccountable bureaucrats aren’t wielding excess power. And stars are wonderful. But most important of all, what role does government play? Are we compensating the contractors who build our Death Stars?

Can you say something bad about the villains in “Raiders of the Lost Ark,” who were clearly Nazis?

Well, I think the villains were basically, you know, any time the free market doesn’t operate to produce maximum freedom.

If we have an election and Donald Trump does not win, does it still count?

Listen, I know about counting! I was an accountant. We need to have capitalism.

Is the climate changing because of human activity?

Freedom is foundational!

Why was the Republican Party founded?

Reasons, of course, and I think government overreach. Also capitalism.

You’re not afraid to say that it was an abolitionist party?

Are you afraid to say that?

Was Abraham Lincoln a Republican?

I think I’m a Republican.

What is “The Sound of Music” about?

I think the subject of “The Sound of Music” is basically, well, so many wonderful things — faith, of course, and the free market, and the waving of flags and, of course, capitalism. And certainly that’s the real question, right?

Are you afraid to say the Civil War was about slavery?

Obviously, I know about the Civil War! Obviously, Republicans looking for a new standard-bearer (not the kind of standard I took down over the South Carolina State House, although I do totally respect the heritage behind that standard!) should feel comfortable about me. I am prepared and know what to say! It’s not that I decided while speaking on the fly that maybe my base would get offended if I said the Civil War was about slavery. And I think that, of course, too.

Say that a party’s lead presidential candidate is quoting Hitler. And not in the incidental way like Hitler probably at some point said, “I will now excuse myself to visit the restroom,” but in the way where the quote is something truly vile, about immigrants poisoning the blood of the country. What would you say?

Well, obviously, it’s so important to cite your sources, as we keep saying about that Harvard president. So I would say that it is bad, if he is doing what that college president did, with regards to citation. But if he says he came up with it on his own, then I trust him, because freedom of speech.

If elected, will you force more people to give birth?

Government overreach is so bad and individual liberty is of course, freedom.

Are you afraid to say that slavery was bad?

Wow, a real doozy! (chuckles) I would never be afraid of freedom. Some things go without saying.

And Donald Trump is not currently president?

Well, of course, capitalism is so important.

Haley Doesn't Care About Workers Who Need Social Security

Nikki Haley is being painted by many in the media as being a "moderate" Republican. She is not! One example of how she is far to the right is her odious stand on Social Security. Economist Paul Krugman explains: 

Haley has never really shown a willingness to stand up to Republican extremists — and at this point the whole G.O.P. has been taken over by extremists.

That said, Haley has shown some consistency on issues of economic and fiscal policy. And what you should know is that her positions on these issues are pretty far to the right. In particular, she seems exceptionally explicit, even among would-be Republican nominees, in calling for an increase in the age at which Americans become eligible for Social Security — a bad idea that seems to be experiencing a revival.

So let’s talk about Social Security.

The first thing you should know about Social Security is that the actual numbers don’t justify the apocalyptic rhetoric one often hears, not just from the right but from self-proclaimed centrists who want to sound serious. No, the exhaustion of the system’s trust fund, currently projected to occur in roughly a decade, wouldn’t mean that benefits disappear.

It would mean that the system would need additional revenue to continue paying scheduled benefits in full. But the extra revenue required would be smaller than you probably think. The most recent long-term projections from the Congressional Budget Office show Social Security outlays rising to 6.2 percent of gross domestic product in 2053 from 5.1 percent this year, not exactly an earth-shattering increase. . . .

Social Security does face a funding gap. How should it be closed?

Anyone who says, as Haley does, that the retirement age should rise in line with increasing life expectancy is being oblivious, perhaps willfully, to the grim inequality of modern America. Until Covid struck, average life expectancy at 65, the relevant number, was indeed rising. But these gains were concentrated among Americans with relatively high incomes. Less affluent Americans — those who depend most on Social Security — have seen little rise in life expectancy, and in some cases actual declines.

So anyone invoking rising life expectancy as a reason to delay Social Security benefits is, in effect, saying that aging janitors must keep working (or be cast into extreme poverty) because bankers are living longer.

How, then, should the Social Security gap be closed? The obvious answer — which happens to be favored by a majority of voters — is to raise more revenue. Remember, America collects less revenueas a percentage of G.D.P. than almost any other advanced economy.

But Haley, of course, wants to cut income taxes.

My guess is that none of this will be relevant, that Trump will be the nominee. But if he stumbles, I would beg political reporters not to focus on Haley’s personal affect, which can seem moderate, but rather on her policies. On social issues and the fate of democracy, she appears to be a pure weather vane, turning with the political winds. On fiscal and economic policy, she’s a hard-right advocate of tax cuts for the rich and benefit cuts for the working class. If calling someone a “populist” has any meaning these days, she’s the exact opposite.

Trump Tries To Bully/Threaten The World - But It Doesn't Work

(This caricature of Trump is by DonkeyHotey.)

Donald Trump has again demonstrated that he has no concept of how diplomacy works, or how to treat the nations of the world to keep them supporting this country.

Recently, Trump did a very foolish thing. He said the U.S. recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and said the U.S. would be moving it's embassy from the real capital (Tel Aviv) to Jerusalem.

This action pleased Israel's leader (Netanyahu), but dismayed almost every other world leader. They understand that it's not just Jews that consider Jerusalem a holy city, but also muslims and christians. They also understood that Trump's ridiculous action made any negotiated peace in the Middle East much more difficult.

This week, the United Nations General Assembly debated a condemnation of Trump declaring Jerusalem to be the capital of Israel. Instead of just disagreeing with the resolution, the narcissist living in the White House (who cannot stand to be criticized or disagreed with) decided to try to threaten the world in an attempt to bully them into agreeing with the U.S. position.

Here's how NBC News describes that effort to bully:

Haley, in a scathing statement before the vote, said the U.S. would remember the vote and raised the issue of American financial support for the U.N. 

"The United States will remember this day in which it was singled out for attack in the General Assembly for the very act of exercising our right as a sovereign nation. We will remember it when we are called upon to once again make the world's largest contribution to the United Nations," Haley said. "And we will remember it when so many countries come calling on us, as they so often do, to pay even more and to use our influence for their benefit." 

"America will put our embassy in Jerusalem," she said. "No vote in the United Nations will make any difference on that." 

Thursday’s special session was held at the request of several Arab nations after the U.S. voted on Monday to veto a U.N. Security Council resolution requiring Trump to rescind his decision to recognize Jerusalem as the official capital of Israel. The other 14 members on the Security Council voted in favor of the resolution.

On Tuesday, Haley had tweeted that "the U.S. will be taking names" of the countries that vote to support the resolution and that Trump had asked her to report back on the nations "who voted against us." She also penned a letter to most of the 193 U.N. member states, in which she warned the U.S. would retaliate against countries that vote in favor of the resolutions. 

Trump, during a Cabinet meeting in Washington on Wednesday, said: "We're watching those votes. Let them vote against us." 

"We'll save a lot," he said. "We don't care."

Trump's threats did not work. The U.N. General Assembly voted for the condemnation resolution 128 to 9 (with 35 nations abstaining). 

What will Trump do now. Will he refuse to pay the U.S. share of United Nations funding? Will he try to financially punish the 128 nations that vote to condemn his action? It would be insane to do either. That would just make Trump (and the U.S.) more of a pariah among the world's nations -- and convince even our traditional allies that there is now a dearth of any kind of leadership in the U.S., and they must cut ties for their own good.

But then, we do have a seemingly insane person in the White House right now. 

The Republican Party Is Now A Fringe Extremist Party

On Tuesday night, South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley delivered the Republican response to the President's State of the Union message.

She did a credible job with her speech -- far better than the Republicans tapped to do the job in recent years. But on Wednesday, she was attacked by party conservatives for not including enough GOP-style hate in her speech.

She had made the mistake of talking nicely about immigrants, and calling for a toning down of the hate-filled rhetoric of many GOP candidates. Now she is being labeled an "establishment" Republican by the media -- and called much worse by party conservatives. Ann Coulter even called for her to be deported.

This is the same Nikki Haley that was the darling of the right-wingers just a couple of years ago. Remember that right-wing loon Sarah Palin, and others, came to South Carolina to campaign for her re-election.

The same thing is happening to Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. A couple of years ago, he was the economic darling of the far-right, because he proposed budgets that would further enrich the corporations and the wealthy by cutting all programs to help hurting Americans (and even proposed cutting Social Security benefits and eliminating Medicare altogether).

But after his efforts to get a budget approved near the end of last year -- a budget that could pass the Senate and be signed by the president -- he is now being denigrated by many right-wing Republicans, and the media is starting to call him also an "establishment" Republican.

What has happened? Have Nikki Haley and Paul Ryan moderated their views and moved toward the political center? Not at all. Ryan still supports the same onerous economic policies, and Haley is still one of the most right-wing governors in the nation. These politicians have not changed -- the Republican Party has changed, by moving even further to the right.

The Republican Party has long been a right-wing party, but they have gone much farther to the right these days. They are extremists -- embracing the extremist policies of the John Birch Society (which Republican officials of the 1950's and 1960's considered far too extreme to embrace). I believe GOP conservatives of the past (Goldwater, Buckley, and yes, even Reagan) would be deeply ashamed of today's Republican Party.

(Note -- The caricatures above of Nikki Haley and Paul Ryan are by DonkeyHotey.)

Is Nikki Haley The GOP Antidote For Donald Trump ?

There has been a lot of talk in the last few days about the damage Donald Trump is doing to the Republican Party with his wild accusations about the undocumented immigrants in this country -- especially those from Mexico. Trump called them rapists and murderers, and accused them of bringing diseases to this country.

The Republican leadership had sort of pushed immigration in the background, in hopes of appealing to Hispanics in the 2016 election. They have done very poorly among Hispanics in the last two presidential elections, but it hasn't always been that way. For instance, George W. Bush was able to corral about 40% support from Hispanics -- far more than either McCain or Romney was able to do (both of whom finished in the low twenties percentage-wise).

But those GOP hopes have been dashed by Trump's actions in the last few days. What is the Republican Party to do. Should they just write off the Hispanic and immigrant vote?

I think they probably won't do well among Hispanics in 2016, but there is a candidate they could tap to help them -- Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina. She has gotten a lot of good press recently by leading the fight to remove the Confederate flag from government property in that state, and her stance probably appeals to a lot of Independent voters (the voters who will decide the next election). In addition, she is a minority, and the daughter of immigrant parents (her parents being Sikhs who emigrated to the United States from India). And she was popular enough, even before the flag controversy, to have been elected twice to the South Carolina governorship. She is also attractive and well-spoken (far from the dim-bulb that Sarah Palin was).

I don't think Donald Trump will win the GOP nomination, but even if he doesn't, there is a lot of damage control to be done. They could get a good start on that by nominating Nikki Haley to be their vice-presidential candidate.

Don't get me wrong -- I don't like Nikki Haley's conservative politics. But I do think she's probably the best VP candidate the Republicans have.