Two More Senate Seats Look Tough For The GOP To Win

Yesterday I posted about three senate seats the Republicans thought they could easily win on their road to taking over the U.S. Senate -- Arkansas, Kentucky, and Georgia. They thought, since these were all red states, that they could snatch the Arkansas seat away from the Democrats and hold on to their seats in Kentucky and Georgia -- and they really needed all three of those seats to have a chance to take the Senate. Unfortunately for the GOP, that's not going so well right now. Polls show the Democrat with a good lead in Arkansas, and both the Kentucky and Georgia seats are a dead heat between the two parties.

Now there is more bad news for the GOP. They were really counting on winning two seats currently held by Democrats in other red states -- North Carolina and Alaska. Polls show the incumbent Democrats leading in both states -- with Kay Hagan holding a tiny 2 point lead in North Carolina, and Mark Begich holding a more substantial lead against all the Republicans hopefuls in Alaska (which hasn't held its primary yet).

The chart above shows the demographic breakdown of the North Carolina race. The chart below shows how Begich is doing against the various Republicans (and others).

The Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina was done between May 9th and 11th of 877 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 3.3 points.

The Public Policy Polling survey in Alaska was done between May 8th and 11th of 582 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 4.1 points.

Begich Could Be Tough To Unseat In Alaska

A few months ago the political pundits were saying the Republicans could win several senate seats currently held by Democrats, and flip the Senate over to Republican control. But their obstructionism has caused voters to rethink their views about the GOP. Now the Republicans may be fighting to hold on to several seats they thought they had in the bag -- like the GOP seats in Kentucky and Georgia.

One of the Democratic seats the GOP was counting on winning was the seat currently held by Mark Begich in Alaska. Alaska is a pretty red state, and Begich was believed to be in trouble their. But now a new poll shows he could be in a lot better shape than anyone thought. That survey is a Hays Research Poll released on August 30th. It is an independent poll (not financed by either party) that surveyed 388 likely Alaska voters, and has a 4.9 point margin of error.

That poll showed that Begich has a comfortable lead over his probable opponent -- Republican Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell. Begich is polling at 50.4%, while Treadwell is at only 38.5% (and 11.1% of voters are unsure of who to support). That's a lead of nearly 12 points for Begich.

Of course it is still very early to put much credence into a poll for a 2014 race. There is plenty of time for anything to happen. It is even remotely possible that someone could beat Treadwell for the GOP nomination -- but that would probably have to be Sarah Palin, who has been teasing her supporters with that possibility for a while now. I doubt that would worry Begich much though, since another poll by Hays Research, released on August 21st, shows he has an even wider lead over a possible Palin candidacy (54.8% to 37.3%) -- a 17.5 point lead.

The Republicans could rebound and win this seat, but as this poll shows, it's going to be a lot harder than originally thought.

Palin For Senate? Bring It On!

The latest news about Sarah Palin is that she says she is "considering" running for senate (to replace the current Democratic senator from Alaska -- Mark Begich). Some liberals on the internet seem upset by this idea, and just wish she would go away. I have a different take on this.

I hope she does run, and I hope she gets the Republican nomination in that state. That's because while she might be able to get the GOP nomination, I don't think she could beat Begich in a general election campaign. Poll after poll has shown she is very unpopular in Alaska, and I doubt the voters there would elect her to any political office again. After all, she let them down the only time she won statewide office, by resigning after only serving half of a term. I don't think they'll make that mistake again.

Unfortunately, I do not believe she's really interested in running. She's just tossing out some fodder for the few fans she has left -- in the hope of milking a few more dollars from them. She has no interest in the hard work of governing (as she showed when she resigned as governor). She just wants to spout off and keep the dollars flowing in -- and if she has to tease her fans with a phantom candidacy to do that (like she did in the last presidential election), then so be it.

But I can always hope, since I would like to see Begich re-elected. He's not as liberal as I would like, but we need to keep a Democratic majority in the Senate -- and he's certainly better than any Republican Alaska would send to Washington.

(The above caricature of Sarah Palin is by DonkeyHotey.)

3 Reasons For Democrats To Celebrate

Democrats can rejoice over several things in the news lately. In fact, I don't think the Democrats have had so much to celebrate since the election last November.

The first, and probably the biggest story, is the decision by Michele Bachmann to retire from the House of Representatives after this term. She left a video for her followers saying she would not run for re-election in 2014. She said it was not because she didn't think she could win, but only that she thought 8 years was enough time to serve in the House. If you believe that, I have some ocean-front property here in Amarillo that'll I'll sell you real cheap.

The truth is that it was getting more unlikely by the minute that she could be re-elected in 2014. She only won by a single percentage point (in a district that gave Romney 56.5% of their votes) in 2012. And that was before all of the investigations began surrounding her ill-fated presidential bid. She is currently being investigated by the FBI, the Federal election Commission, and the Office of Congressional Ethics. She could see that her 15 minutes of fame was over, and decided to get out while she could still get a job lobbying for some right-wing organization.

The question is how this will affect the House race in her district. Will it give the Democrat (who nearly beat her in 2012) a better chance, or will it insure that a Republican can be elected there. We'll just have to wait and see.

The second bit of good news comes out of Alaska. Joe Miller has tossed his hat in the ring for the 2014 senate race there. He is hoping to unseat Senator Mark Begich, the Democratic incumbent. You may remember that Miller is the teabagger who beat Senator Lisa Murkowski in the Republican primary in 2010 -- only to lose to her in the general election when she won with only write-in votes.

The chances are good that Miller can again win the Republican primary, since that state party is controlled by teabaggers, but it is highly unlikely he can win the general election. A survey by Public Policy Polling shows him trailing Begich by a 58% to 30% margin. This was a seat the Republicans might have won with a good candidate, but I don't see Miller winning. He's just not well liked outside the teabagger element of the GOP in that state.

The final bit of good news comes from the commonwealth of Kentucky, where Democrats have been trying to unseat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for ages. If a new poll is to be believed, they may have their best chance in 2014. A Public Policy Polling survey of 556 Kentucky voters (done on May 23rd and 24th -- with a 4.2 point margin of error) shows McConnell tied with Secretary of State Alison L. Grimes. Each of those possible candidates has 45%, with 10% saying they are not sure.

Back in December, he had a 7 point lead over Grimes. That lead was down to 4 points in April, and is now dead even. And this is with McConnell running some early ads in the state, while Grimes hasn't even officially announced her candidacy. With a little financial backing from the national party, Grimes could make this a very interesting race. It's still very early, but this could be the Democrats best chance of unseating McConnell yet.

Alaska Seat Up For Grabs

A few months ago, no one believed the Democrats could ever reach the veto-proof magic number of senators -- 60. But yesterday, they took another step to possibly doing that when Alaska's Senator was found guilty of seven counts of violating federal law.

The federal jury convicted Senator Ted Stevens of lying about $250,000 in gifts he had received as a senator. He will not be sentenced until early next year, and could receive anything from probation to 35 years in prison. While it is unlikely the 84 year-old senator would get a 35 year sentence, it is very possible it could affect his chances for re-election.

He was already in a tough fight for his senate seat with popular Democrat Mark Begich. A research poll conducted earlier this month showed the race to be a statistical dead-heat. The guilty verdict could be the thing that puts Begich (pictured above) over the top.

Surely the Alaska voters wouldn't re-elect a convicted felon, who may be booted from the senate even if he's not sent to prison.

Alaska Looking Better For Democrats

Yesterday, things just got a little bit better for Democrats in the state of Alaska. Instead of selecting a new and untarnished candidate in their primary, Alaska Republicans again chose their ethically-challenged current senator -- Ted Stevens.

In a seven-person field of candidates, the 84 year-old senator who is currently under indictment on federal charges, pulled down over 63% of the Republican vote in the primary.

This is great news for the Democrats. They have a capable and very popular candidate to run against Stevens. Alaska Democrats have chosen Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich as their candidate.

A year ago, I don't think anyone would have given the Democrats much chance of winning the senate race in Alaska. Today, it looks like they have a very good chance of doing that.