Hagan's Lead Growing In North Carolina Senate Race

A few months ago it looked like Democratic incumbent Senator Kay Hagan might be in trouble in North Carolina. In May, Hagan led by only 2 points -- which is a dead heat since the margin of error was more than that. By June, she had posted a lead of 5 points (which exceeded that margin of error) -- and in the latest poll taken in North Caroline, she has extended her lead to 7 points (41% to 34%). It's starting to look like North Carolina may not be the opportunity that Republicans once thought it was.

Hagan leads among women, Blacks, other races, and all age groups under 66. Independents and those over 66 are within the margin of error. The only groups giving Tillis a significant advantage are Whites (by 10 points) and men (by 4 points).

These charts were made from a recent survey done by Public Policy Polling. The survey was done between July 17th and 20th of a random sample of 1,062 North Carolina voters, and has a 3 point margin of error.

Two More Senate Seats Look Tough For The GOP To Win

Yesterday I posted about three senate seats the Republicans thought they could easily win on their road to taking over the U.S. Senate -- Arkansas, Kentucky, and Georgia. They thought, since these were all red states, that they could snatch the Arkansas seat away from the Democrats and hold on to their seats in Kentucky and Georgia -- and they really needed all three of those seats to have a chance to take the Senate. Unfortunately for the GOP, that's not going so well right now. Polls show the Democrat with a good lead in Arkansas, and both the Kentucky and Georgia seats are a dead heat between the two parties.

Now there is more bad news for the GOP. They were really counting on winning two seats currently held by Democrats in other red states -- North Carolina and Alaska. Polls show the incumbent Democrats leading in both states -- with Kay Hagan holding a tiny 2 point lead in North Carolina, and Mark Begich holding a more substantial lead against all the Republicans hopefuls in Alaska (which hasn't held its primary yet).

The chart above shows the demographic breakdown of the North Carolina race. The chart below shows how Begich is doing against the various Republicans (and others).

The Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina was done between May 9th and 11th of 877 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 3.3 points.

The Public Policy Polling survey in Alaska was done between May 8th and 11th of 582 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 4.1 points.