There Was No Clear Winner In The Vice-Presidential Debate

 

Another Poll Shows Harris Won The Debate And Grabbed A lead

 

The charts above are from the Yahoo News / YouGov Poll -- done between September 11th and 13th of a nationwide sample of 1,755 adults, with a 2.9 point margin of error.

Some Reactions To The Harris And Trump Debate

 

Trump Will Debate (With Some Conditions) - SATIRE

Is Trump going to back out of the presidential debate? In this biting bit of satire, Alexandra Petri (The Washington Post) says Trump will debate - as long as some conditions are net:

Fine! I have agreed to the debate on ABC. But as I proposed during my wonderful speech Thursday, this should be the first of three. I propose that the second debate occur on Fox News, as follows.

The debate is held in front of a rally-size crowd of women (all 10s) and big, strong men weeping and clutching at my hands and saying, “Sir, sir!” They are all weeping because they have missed me so much. I touch them and their golf handicaps decrease.

The debate takes place at Mar-a-Lago, the best place in the world. A bunch of classified documents are there because they will not stop following me loyally around. “Stop following me around, classified documents!” I tell them. “Go on, git!” But they refuse. They will go wherever I go, and that includes the debate. They settle in the back rows in their cardboard boxes, rustling proudly.

The moderator is Bret Bear, an actual bear. RFK Jr. (who is going to have a great job in the new Trump Cabinet) comes and disposes of the bear in his trademark manner.

No one calls me weird, even though I have brought JD Vance with me. It’s good that he’s there and no one has second thoughts about him. The only second thought they have is, “I like him, a second time.” One woman says she doesn’t like him, but he points at her and she turns back into a cat, just as he suspected. He will be a great Witchfinder General, my JD.

To get to the debate, Vice President Kamala Harris has to walk through a gantlet of people with bells shouting, “Shame!” JD Vance has the biggest bell, and he is the loudest. The crowd gets bigger and bigger, and they love me more and more. The Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. is there, and he says, “I confirm that your crowd is bigger than mine, and also better in undefinable ways.” “Thanks, Dr. King!” I tell him. I give him a big thumbs-up. My sons (all of whom are at least 7 feet tall, like skyscrapers, so they have better access to God) stand in a big line behind me and clap!

Before the moderators can even ask the first question, the U.S. economy flies into the auditorium in the form of a beautiful woman and kisses me full on the mouth. This symbolizes that inflation is ending and it is because of me.

Every judge who has ever wronged me steps up to say that they were mistaken and begs my forgiveness. I would forgive them, but my old friend the late, great Hannibal Lecter arrives and has them for dinner instead. Hannibal Lecter is a big hit!

Kamala agrees to let me give her name a random new consonant every time I say it, as part of the debate conditions. Then we hear a voice!

“Wait, Donald Trump,” the voice says. It is Joe Biden. He is back and he wants to debate me instead. I knew he would come! I know everything because of my MIT uncle.

“I will!” I say, magnanimously. The first debate challenge is to walk up a ramp, and we both walk up the ramp slowly and carefully, but everyone agrees that I walked the ramp better. I walk the ramp again, just to show off. Simone Biles says this is the best she has ever seen anyone do, at anything, and Katie Ledecky agrees. But JD Vance tells them both to hush because men are talking.

We go outside. There are several cows there, and they say, “Sir, sir,” — they are crying, the cows — “we want to be your next hamburgers, do us that favor.” I generously agree. Joe Biden and I walk past the cows to play a round of golf. I get a hole in one. It is the perfect day. The debate could not be better. Now the crowd is twice as big as the crowd that Martin Luther King Jr. had! He says so! And the ratings are through the roof!

Everyone online who was mean to me apologizes. The people in charge of Georgia find all the votes that I told them to find. I am president now, and I will be president forever.

Everyone is cheering for me, and they cheer louder and louder. The cheering never stops. And Kamala Harris isn’t running and it’s July and everything is the same as it was! It’s the perfect debate.

The third debate occurs the same way, on NBC.

Biden Had A Poor Debate - But Nothing Has Changed

President Biden did not have a good debate. And the talking heads on cable news can't get over it. Many of them seem to think his poor performance has handed the election to Donald Trump. And the newspaper pundits are following suit. At least three New York Times columnists are calling for Biden to drop out of the race.

The hysteria is misplaced. This is just one debate, and there are months to go before the election. And to be blunt - absolutely nothing has changed.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump will receive the nominations of their respective parties - and no one is going to drop out of the race. Either Joe Biden or Donald Trump will be elected as president in November.

And there is a clear difference between them.

Joe Biden was a good president. He got a very good transportation bill passed. More jobs have been created under his administration than any other, and the unemployment rate set a record in the number of months under 4%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is booming, and is better than in any other developed nation. And while inflation is still higher than most people like, the rate has dropped significantly since he became president. 

Donald Trump was not a good president. In fact, a poll of presidential historians rated him as the worst president the United States has ever had.

Trump is a liar. He told over 30,000 documented lies during his term in office, and he's still doing it. He lied time after time during the debate.

Trump is a racist, a homophobe, and misogynist (and a court has determined him guilty of sexual abuse).

Trump has disdain for our constitutional electoral process, and still claims the 2020 election was stolen from him - even though he, and his cohorts, have been unable to find any evidence of that.

Trump wants to make the presidency a more authoritarian position by choosing for his government only those who would do what he wants (even if it violates the Constitution), and by turning the Justice Department into his own revenge vehicle to punish those he doesn't like.

Trump wants to make inflation worse by creating massive tariffs on imported goods.

Trump wants to give millionaires, billionaires, and corporations more massive tax breaks (making our economy even more unfair to most Americans).

I can understand Democrats being worried by Biden's poor performance in the debate, but they now have a choice. They can quit, and give the election to Trump. Or they can redouble their efforts and make sure there is a massive turnout in November. A weak trunout elects Trump, while a massive turnout elects Biden.

I hope they choose to work and vote. A second Trump term would be disastrous for the economy, the rule of law, and our democracy.

The Debate Poses More Dangers For Trump Than Biden

All of the talking heads on cable news are talking about the impending presidential debate. They are opining about whether Trump or Biden will win or lose the debate.

I think the debate poses more dangers for Trump than for President Biden. Trump, and his GOP cronies have lowered the bar for Biden by framing him as a doddering old man. All Biden has to do is present himself as knowledgeable and competent and he's a winner.

But there are several ways in which Trump could blow the debate.

CLAIMING VICTIMHOOD

Trump loves to claim he is a victim - both of the 2020 election and his recent conviction in a New York trial. That may sell well with his die-hard supporters, but not most voters. Most people know he lost the 2020 election fair and square and most believe he was guilty of the 34 felonies he was convicted of in New York. They won't buy his victimhood, and will just consider it whining - and they don't want a whiner but a leader!

UNPOPULAR POLICIES

Trump usually avoids discussing policies, but he has enumerated a few - more tax cuts for the rich and corporations, leaving abortion to the states, abolishing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and initiating new tariffs (which Americans would wind up paying). These are not popular stances with the public, and talking about them in the debate will not win any new voters.

BULLYING

This is a favorite tactic of Trump, and he has used it in past debates - calling his opponents names and trying to intimidate them. CNN has tried to eliminate that by having no audience (so Trump can't count of his supporters to hep intimidate) and turning off his microphone when it isn't his turn to talk. But he still might try to interrupt and/or shout down his opponent. It won't help him because most Americans don't like bullies.

WORD SALAD

In his rallies, Trump has had a habit of going off topic and talking about strange things that don't make much sense when he doesn't have a teleprompter. And example is his weird discussion of electric boats sinking and sharks. If he does this during the debate, it will just have many voters wondering if he is mentally competent.

Biden will come out of the debate sounding like a competent person. Trump needs to do the same. But I doubt Trump is capable of that. I believe he will do one (or more) of the things above and blow it! 

Political Disagreements Should Not Make Us Enemies

Democracy is the best form of government. But it is also the messiest form of government. That's because it has as a requirement the concept of free speech. Proponents on the left and the right (and all points in between) have the right to speak and pursue their own concept of government and the issues that government should pursue.

This has actually worked very well in the United States. While the government has swung back and forth between the left and right, for the most part it has been pretty moderate. The different factions have debated and ultimately compromised for the good of the country. And while progress has been too slow for some, the country has made progress in extending rights and making life better for citizens.

But a sad thing is happening in our politics. Lately, many on the far right (led by Donald Trump) have begun to label their political opponents as enemies, and threatened to use government's power to punish them for their political beliefs. And sadly, some on the left have retaliated and are considering right-wingers as enemies.

Both sides are wrong. Political beliefs are not right or wrong, as arguments can be made for both sides. Political disagreements are necessary. They are the life blood of democracy. And those who disagree with your beliefs are not your enemy -- and they don't deserve any punishment for having those beliefs.

I believe most Americans would be better off if the government enacted liberal policies. Those on the right think conservative policies would be best. That does not make us enemies -- just patriotic Americans with a different view.

We need to relearn the art of debate and compromise. It has worked well for the country in the past. Demonizing political opponents as the enemy is dangerous to democracy, and just sets us on the road to tyranny. None of us should want that.

Skipping The Debate Did Not Affect Trump's Primary Lead

 The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll. Polls were done August 18-20 and August 24 of nationwide samples of at least 1,256 Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of 3 points.

The Fly - A Metaphor For Pence's Tenure As Vice-President

 

During the vice-presidential debate, a fly landed on Mike Pence's head. It stayed there for over two and a half minutes, and was ignored by Pence.

David Frum, in The Atlantic, views that as a fitting metaphor for Pence's tenure as vice-president:

We saw a weird moment when a fly landed on Pence’s snow-white hair—and the vice president did not react at all. No doubt, it’s a conundrum, what to do in such a situation. If Pence had shooed the fly and the fly had refused to shoo, that would have been bad. So he did nothing. And that doing nothing somehow in one powerful visual moment concentrated everything. It symbolized the whole Pence vice presidency, the determined, willful refusal to acknowledge the most blaring and glaring negative realities. Through all of the scandals and the crimes and the disasters of the past four years, Mike Pence was the man who pretended not to notice. And now there was a fly on his head, and he pretended not to notice that too.

Another Poll Declares Biden The Winner Of The Debate

 

A couple of days ago, I showed you three polls that had Biden as the winner of the first presidential debate this year -- the CBS, CNN, and Data for Progress polls. Now a fourth has the same result.

It is the Morning Consult Poll -- done on September 30th of a national sample of 1,277 registered voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

Trump's Aides Are Too Afraid Of Him To Tell Him The Truth

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Donald Trump lives in his own delusional world. He has been bragging about winning last Tuesday's debate to everyone in the White House, and on the campaign trail. 

Those who work for him know the truth -- that he just embarrassed himself during the debate. But they are afraid to tell him the truth, because he would probably fire them for doing that.

This delusional fool does not allow anyone to disagree with him.

Here is how Gabriel Sherman puts it in  Vanity Fair:

Donald Trump’s campaign is still assessing the political damage from Tuesday night’s chaotic first presidential debate. The president’s refusal to condemn white supremacists, of course, is the immediate crisis. “He blew that for sure,” a campaign adviser told me. “It’s nuts,” a former West Wing official said wearily, sounding like a storm survivor with PTSD. “Total lunacy,” said another former White House staffer, who remains close to the campaign. “Trump didn’t win over any voters, and he pissed off a lot of people,” added a prominent Republican.

Trump advisers agree on what he needs to do differently at the next debate. “He has to just relax and let Joe Biden speak,” said the ex-official, who remains close to the White House. But Republicans are resigned to the fact that Trump is unlikely––or unwilling––to course-correct. “Trump thinks he won. He didn’t,” said another Republican with ties to the campaign. “But does anyone have the balls to tell him that? No. They’d be fired.”

Trump doesn’t accept the consensus that the debate was a disaster because, sources said, he was unabashedly himself. “The thing about the debate is people got to see why no one that has any integrity can work for Trump. This is what Trump is like in the Oval Office every day. It’s why [John] Kelly left. It’s why [Jim] Mattis quit,” said the prominent Republican. “Trump doesn’t let anyone else speak. He really doesn’t care what you have to say. He demeans people. He talks over them. And everyone around him thinks it’s getting worse.”

Voters Say Joe Biden Won The First Presidential Debate

 

Donald Trump is trailing in all national polls by a significant amount. He needed to appeal to voters in last Tuesday's debate to try and close that gap. But all he had was lying and bullying, and the voting public wasn't impressed. CNN, CBS , and Data for Progress did instant polls after the debate, and all had Biden as the debate winner -- CNN by 32 points, CBS by 7 points, and Data for Progress by 13 points.

Trump Didn't Disavow White Supremacy - He Encouraged It

Donald Trump's performance in Tuesday night's debate was atrocious. Instead of making a case for his re-election, he just resorted to lying and bullying

But there was one moment in the debate that was worse than any other -- when he was asked by the moderator whether he would disavow the white supremacists among his supporters.

He refused to do that. Even worse, his response actually encouraged them. Thanks to that horrible response, there is now a very good chance that those groups will resort to violence if Trump loses (and I believe he will lose).

Here is how Jessica Schulberg reported that awful debate moment in The Huffington Post:

Bloomberg Loses Support After The Las Vegas Debate

The chart above is from the Morning Consult Poll. It compares the national support of Democratic candidates before and after the Las Vegas debate last Wednesday.

The before sample was done between February 12th and 17th of 7,750 likely Democratic primary voters, with a 1 point margin of error.

The after sample was done on February 20th of 2,609 likely primary voters, and has a 2 point margin of error.

Only one candidate showed a difference between the polls that exceeded the margin of error -- Michael Bloomberg dropped three points in the poll done after the debate.

Last Democratic Debate Had The Largest Audience

(This photo of the Las Vegas Democratic debate is from NBCnews.com.)

Since the June debate of Democratic candidates, the audience for those debates had been shrinking. That changed last Wednesday night with the debate in Las Vegas. Is it because many voters still haven't made up their minds, and the Nevada, South Carolina, and Super Tuesday primaries are coming up fast (with many Super Tuesday states already doing some early voting)? Maybe.

Whatever the reason, the debate in Las Vegas had the highest viewership of any of the Democratic debates this season (and maybe for any Democratic debate ever).

Here is how The Hollywood Reporter reported it:

The ninth debate of the 2020 Democratic presidential primary — and the first featuring former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg — delivered record viewership for a Democratic debate.

Nearly 20 million people watched the debate on NBC and MSNBC on Wednesday night. The 19.66 million viewers for the two-hour telecast breaks the previous Democratic primary record of 18.1 million by a sizable margin. The previous mark was set in June 2019 for night two of the first Democratic debate, carried by NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo. 

The debate also averaged 417,000 streaming viewers, bringing the total average audience just above 20 million. 

The broadcast also brought in 5.31 million viewers in the key news demographic of adults 25-54 — just ahead of the 5.3 million for the June debate — and 4.26 million in the 18-49 demo across the two networks. NBC had slightly more than 12 million viewers, while MSNBC's audience of 7.61 million was its third-largest ever behind a 2010 Olympic hockey game (8.2 million) and a 2008 Democratic primary debate between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton (7.7 million).

The record audience for a primary debate for either major party remains 24 million viewers on Fox News for the first Republican debate of the 2016 cycle.

The New York Times Has Pundits Rate The Debate

The New York Times had 14 columnists, writers, and political pundits watch the Democratic debate last Wednesday night -- and then rate the performance of each candidate on a 1 to 10 scale (with 1 being terrible and 10 being great). The images above show their average rating for each candidate.

Elizabeth Warren had the highest average at 8.4 out of 10. Michael Bloomberg had the lowest at 2.9 out of 10.

You can go here to see what they said about each candidate.

The 14 who gave their opinions are listed below.

Have The Debates Mattered In The Democratic Race?

These charts are from Morning Consult, and reflects their polling in the Democratic race for the party's presidential nomination. The top chart shows the change reflected in the polls before and after each debate among the five leading candidates (Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, and Pete Buttigieg). The second chart shows the change in support for each of those five candidates from before the first debate to after the October debate.

The first debate seemed to shake up the race, and it seemed to make Kamala Harris a significant player. But with each succeeding debate, less change was noticed -- the the race settled down to pretty much where it was to begin with -- with one exception (Warren took over second place from Sanders).

Actually, the only significant changes from before the first debate to after the last one is for Biden and Warren. Biden has lost 7 points and Warren has gained 8 points. Personally, I don't think the debates had much to do with that. It's far more likely that Warren has gained because she's running a very good campaign, and Biden has dropped because he doesn't have a dynamic campaign (at least not yet). The other three candidates are within 1 point of where they were before the debates.

Frankly, the debates (at least so far) seem to have been an exercise in futility. That may or may not change when the field narrows down and there are less candidates debating.

Gillibrand Drops Out (And Others Need To Do The Same)

Slowly but surely, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is winnowing out the candidates who have no chance at securing the nomination.

Some candidates are whining because they couldn't qualify for the third debate to be held in September. They want to blame the DNC for being unfair to them. That's ridiculous. The qualifications the DNC laid down for that debate are low (2% support I four polls and 130,000 individual donors), and anyone who can't meet that should not be in the race.

The latest casualty is Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. She dropped out on Wednesday, saying without being in the next debate she just didn't see a path to winning. But I give her credit -- she didn't try to blame the DNC for her own failure, saying:

 “I think the D.N.C. did the best they could.”

She also said:

“I think that women have a unique ability to bring people together and heal this country. I think a woman nominee would be inspiring and exciting.”

“I will support whoever the nominee is, and I will do whatever it takes to beat Trump.”

It was time for Gillibrand to go, and there are at least 10 others who need to do the same thing. They have no chance to win, and are just wasting everyone's time and their donor's money.

10 Have Qualified For The 3rd Debate (And That's Enough)

So far, ten candidates have qualified for the third Democratic presidential nomination debate on September 12th. The candidates who have qualified are in the graphic to the left.

It is possible that one (maybe two) candidates can qualify by the Wednesday deadline (8/28/19). Tom Steyer needs one more poll showing him at 2%, and Tulsi Gabbard needs two more polls. Both have met the donor limit.

If either Steyer or Gabbard (or both) are able to qualify, then the candidates will be divided and a second debate will be held on September 13th. Even if they don't, it is possible that they (and others) could qualify for the fourth debate in October (which has the same qualifications).

Frankly, I hope no one else qualifies. Ten candidates is plenty for the third and fourth debates. Four candidates (Eric Swalwell, Seth Moulton, John Hickenlooper, and Jay Inslee) have dropped out of the race. It's time for about ten more to do the same.

Some of the candidates that didn't qualify for this debate are complaining that the rules are unfair to them. I don't agree. If anything, the rules are too generous. Anyone who can't get 130,000 donors and 2% in four different polls doesn't belong in the race. They should look to themselves for the failure of their campaigns -- not the generous rules laid down by the DNC.

Attacking The Obama Administration Is A Bad Mistake

Some of the Democratic presidential candidates did a very stupid thing during the Wednesday night debate. They tried to get at Joe Biden by attacking the Obama administration. Frankly, I was aghast.

If they think attacking the Obama administration is going to get them any Democratic votes, they are sorely mistaken!

First, President Obama was a very good president. During his first two years, when he had the backing of a Democratic Congress, he accomplished some very good things. Among these were regulations on Wall Street to prevent another crash (like the one that led to the Bush recession), and the creation of a consumer protection bureau to keep financial institutions from ripping off ordinary Americans.

He also got the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) passed, covering millions of Americans with insurance that had not been able to afford it before. Was it perfect? No, but it was much better than what had been in place before. And President Obama had wanted a better system with a public option, but Congress denied him that.

Second, Barack Obama is the most popular Democrat in this country (with the possible exception of his wife, Michelle). No other Democrat, including all 25 candidates for the 2020 nomination, is as popular with both Democrats and Independents as President Obama.

I can understand the Democratic candidates attacking each other (even though I don't like it at all), but trying to get at Biden (because he was Obama's vice-president) by attacking the Obama administration is beyond the pale. It's just wrong, and it's not the way to win over any Democratic voters!