With a 5-4 split on the United States Supreme Court regarding issues of "choice", many believe this is a critical election. The new president could make several Supreme Court appointments, and those appointments could determine whether Roe v. Wade survives or is overturned. With the two chosen nominees, voters have a clear choice on the matter. McCain is anti-choice and Obama is pro-choice.A new Greenberg-Quinlan-Rosner poll, commissioned by NARAL Pro-Choice America, shows that while the war and the economy will be important issues in the 2008 election, the issue that decides the election could well be the issue of a woman's "choice".
The G-Q-R poll conducted a survey of 1,788 likely voters -- 1,000 likely voters plus oversamples of 424 Republican women and 364 Independent women. The voters surveyed were in the swing states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The poll shows that choice could be important in these swing states in helping Obama to build a winning coalition. Here are the key findings of the poll:
Once balanced information about Obama and McCain’s respective positions on choice is introduced, Obama gains 6 points overall, with his lead in battleground states expanding from a net 2 points (47-45 percent) to a net 13 points (53-40 percent).
The issue of choice moves the swing vote and generates crossover support. Obama gains 13 points among pro-choice Independent women (who make up 9 percent of this electorate) and 9 points among pro-choice Republican women (who account for 5 percent of this electorate). When these groups are combined, this movement equates to a gain of 1.6 points overall in the general election race against McCain.
Choice can also help Obama consolidate his base—Obama gains 6 points among Democratic women after balanced descriptions of the candidates’ positions on choice is introduced.
Despite the fact that the national focus seems to be on the economy, among pro-choice Independent women, pro-choice Republican women, and liberal to moderate Republican women, the issue of abortion produces a larger advantage for Democrats than the economy, the war in Iraq, or health care. Moreover, among these three groups critiques on McCain’s anti-choice position are the strongest attacks against him, trumping attacks on the economy, the war, and special interests.
This is the most important election for women's rights in years. If McCain wins, women's rights could be set back 50 years. It is up to all of us to see that doesn't happen. For women's rights, civil rights and the benefit of all Americans, we must elect Barack Obama as our next president.
