Trump Did A Stupid Thing Because He Refused To Learn From History

Donald Trump started a war without clear goals and without an exit strategy. It was stupid, because the history of such U.S. actions was clear that it was a losing effort - one that could not be won.

The lesson should have been learned from Vietnam. That was also a war in which the United States was clearly the superior military force. The U.S. had the military advantage in training troop levels, and the machines of war. And that was clear in their winning nearly every battle of the war. But winning battles doesn't necessarily translate into winning a war - and the United States lost that war.

They lost because their military superiority did not actually give them the advantage. Vietnam actually had the long-term advantage. That was because for the U.S. to win they had to completely defeat the Viet Congress, the North Vietnamese army and subjugate the Vietnamese people (an almost impossible task). While Vietnam just had to survive and keep costing the U.S. in men and money. Eventually, the war became too expensive to continue with no end in sight.

The lesson was again taught by history in Afghanistan. The United States (and its allies) clearly had the superior force - and once again won all (or nearly all) of the battles fought in the war. But, like in Vietnam, having the superior force did not give the U.S. the advantage. The Taliban had the long-term advantage because all they had to do was survive and keep costing their opponent in men and money. Eventually, with no end in sight, the U.S had to withdraw and the Taliban won the war.

While Donald Trump is quick to try and rewrite history, he doesn't learn from it. The result is a third "forever" war that the United States cannot win. The Iranians did learn from this history. They knew that to win they just had to survive and keep costing the United States in men and money (and economic pain). This gives them the long-term advantage. And with the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranians have an advantage the Vietnamese and Afghans did not have.

The war continues, but I see no way for the United States to win it - no matter how long it goes on. It is likely though, like in the two previous examples, Iran will survive and emerge victorious.

That will happen because Trump did a very stupid thing in starting the war.

Most In U.S. Say The Afghan War Was Not Worth Fighting

 The chart above reflects the results of the Pearson Institute / AP-NORC Poll -- done between September 21st and 25th of a nationwide sample of 1,191 adults with a 3.8 point margin of error.

U.S. Voters Say NO To More Aid For Afghanistan

The chart above is from the Politico / Morning Consult Poll -- done on January 15th and 16th of a nationwide sample of 2,005 registered voters, with a 2 point margin of error.

It has been reported that Afghanistan is in serious trouble, and millions of Afghans may starve if help is not given by other countries. 

But American voters are not in a mood to help. About 60% say no more aid should be given to the Taliban government of that country.

Public Still Supports Withdrawal From Afghanistan

 

The charts above are from the Pew Research Center. They come from a survey they did of 10,348 adults nationwide between August 23rd and 29th. The margin of error for the survey is 1.6 points.

About 54% of Americans say the withdrawal from Afghanistan was the right thing to do, while only 42% disagreed. The disagreement comes mainly from Republicans, where 34% thought it was the right thing and 64% said it was the wrong thing to do.

But one thing that everyone agrees with is that the United States failed to achieve its goals in Afghanistan. That includes 69% of adults, 69% of Democrats, and 70% of Republicans.

President Biden Speaks After The Withdrawal Is Complete

The war in Afghanistan is over, and all American troops have been withdrawn from that nation. Here is what President Biden told the nation after the withdrawal was complete:

Last night in Kabul, the United States ended 20 years of war in Afghanistan — the longest war in American history. 

We completed one of the biggest airlifts in history, with more than 120,000 people evacuated to safety.  That number is more than double what most experts thought were possible.  No nation — no nation has ever done anything like it in all of history.  Only the United States had the capacity and the will and the ability to do it, and we did it today.

The extraordinary success of this mission was due to the incredible skill, bravery, and selfless courage of the United States military and our diplomats and intelligence professionals. 

For weeks, they risked their lives to get American citizens, Afghans who helped us, citizens of our Allies and partners, and others onboard planes and out of the country.  And they did it facing a crush of enormous crowds seeking to leave the country.  And they did it knowing ISIS-K terrorists — sworn enemies of the Taliban — were lurking in the midst of those crowds. 

And still, the men and women of the United States military, our diplomatic corps, and intelligence professionals did their job and did it well, risking their lives not for professional gains but to serve others; not in a mission of war but in a mission of mercy.  Twenty servicemembers were wounded in the service of this mission.  Thirteen heroes gave their lives.

I was just at Dover Air Force Base for the dignified transfer.  We owe them and their families a debt of gratitude we can never repay but we should never, ever, ever forget.

In April, I made the decision to end this war.  As part of that decision, we set the date of August 31st for American troops to withdraw.  The assumption was that more than 300,000 Afghan National Security Forces that we had trained over the past two decades and equipped would be a strong adversary in their civil wars with the Taliban.

That assumption — that the Afghan government would be able to hold on for a period of time beyond military drawdown — turned out not to be accurate.

But I still instructed our national security team to prepare for every eventuality — even that one.  And that’s what we did. 

So, we were ready when the Afghan Security Forces — after two decades of fighting for their country and losing thousands of their own — did not hold on as long as anyone expected. 

We were ready when they and the people of Afghanistan watched their own government collapse and their president flee amid the corruption and malfeasance, handing over the country to their enemy, the Taliban, and significantly increasing the risk to U.S. personnel and our Allies.

As a result, to safely extract American citizens before August 31st — as well as embassy personnel, Allies and partners, and those Afghans who had worked with us and fought alongside of us for 20 years — I had authorized 6,000 troops — American troops — to Kabul to help secure the airport.

As General McKenzie said, this is the way the mission was designed.  It was designed to operate under severe stress and attack.  And that’s what it did.

Since March, we reached out 19 times to Americans in Afghanistan, with multiple warnings and offers to help them leave Afghanistan — all the way back as far as March.  After we started the evacuation 17 days ago, we did initial outreach and analysis and identified around 5,000 Americans who had decided earlier to stay in Afghanistan but now wanted to leave.

Our Operation Allied Rescue [Allies Refuge] ended up getting more than 5,500 Americans out.  We got out thousands of citizens and diplomats from those countries that went into Afghanistan with us to get bin Laden.  We got out locally employed staff of the United States Embassy and their families, totaling roughly 2,500 people.  We got thousands of Afghan translators and interpreters and others, who supported the United States, out as well.

Now we believe that about 100 to 200 Americans remain in Afghanistan with some intention to leave.  Most of those who remain are dual citizens, long-time residents who had earlier decided to stay because of their family roots in Afghanistan.

The bottom line: Ninety [Ninety-eight] percent of Americans in Afghanistan who wanted to leave were able to leave.

And for those remaining Americans, there is no deadline.  We remain committed to get them out if they want to come out.  Secretary of State Blinken is leading the continued diplomatic efforts to ensure a safe passage for any American, Afghan partner, or foreign national who wants to leave Afghanistan.

In fact, just yesterday, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution that sent a clear message about what the international community expects the Taliban to deliver on moving forward, notably freedom of travel, freedom to leave.  And together, we are joined by over 100 countries that are determined to make sure the Taliban upholds those commitments.

It will include ongoing efforts in Afghanistan to reopen the airport, as well as overland routes, allowing for continued departure to those who want to leave and delivery of humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan.

The Taliban has made public commitments, broadcast on television and radio across Afghanistan, on safe passage for anyone wanting to leave, including those who worked alongside Americans.  We don’t take them by their word alone but by their actions, and we have leverage to make sure those commitments are met.

Let me be clear: Leaving August the 31st is not due to an arbitrary deadline; it was designed to save American lives.

My predecessor, the former President, signed an agreement with the Taliban to remove U.S. troops by May the 1st, just months after I was inaugurated.  It included no requirement that the Taliban work out a cooperative governing arrangement with the Afghan government, but it did authorize the release of 5,000 prisoners last year, including some of the Taliban’s top war commanders, among those who just took control of Afghanistan.

And by the time I came to office, the Taliban was in its strongest military position since 2001, controlling or contesting nearly half of the country.

The previous administration’s agreement said that if we stuck to the May 1st deadline that they had signed on to leave by, the Taliban wouldn’t attack any American forces, but if we stayed, all bets were off.

So we were left with a simple decision: Either follow through on the commitment made by the last administration and leave Afghanistan, or say we weren’t leaving and commit another tens of thousands more troops going back to war.

That was the choice — the real choice — between leaving or escalating.

I was not going to extend this forever war, and I was not extending a forever exit.  The decision to end the military airlift operations at Kabul airport was based on the unanimous recommendation of my civilian and military advisors — the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and all the service chiefs, and the commanders in the field.

Their recommendation was that the safest way to secure the passage of the remaining Americans and others out of the country was not to continue with 6,000 troops on the ground in harm’s way in Kabul, but rather to get them out through non-military means.

In the 17 days that we operated in Kabul after the Taliban seized power, we engaged in an around-the-clock effort to provide every American the opportunity to leave.  Our State Department was working 24/7 contacting and talking, and in some cases, walking Americans into the airport. 

Again, more than 5,500 Americans were airlifted out.  And for those who remain, we will make arrangements to get them out if they so choose.

As for the Afghans, we and our partners have airlifted 100,000 of them.  No country in history has done more to airlift out the residents of another country than we have done.  We will continue to work to help more people leave the country who are at risk.  And we’re far from done.

For now, I urge all Americans to join me in grateful prayer for our troops and diplomats and intelligence officers who carried out this mission of mercy in Kabul and at tremendous risk with such unparalleled results: an airma- — an airlift that evacuated tens of thousands to a network of volunteers and veterans who helped identifies [identify] those needing evacuation, guide them to the airport, and provided them for their support along the way.

We’re going to continue to need their help.  We need your help.  And I’m looking forward to meeting with you. 

And to everyone who is now offering or who will offer to welcome Afghan allies to their homes around the world, including in America: We thank you.

I take responsibility for the decision.  Now, some say we should have started mass evacuations sooner and “Couldn’t this have be done — have been done in a more orderly manner?”  I respectfully disagree.

Imagine if we had begun evacuations in June or July, bringing in thousands of American troops and evacuating more than 120,000 people in the middle of a civil war.  There still would have been a rush to the airport, a breakdown in confidence and control of the government, and it still would have been a very difficult and dangerous mission.

The bottom line is: There is no evacuatio- — evacuation from the end of a war that you can run without the kinds of complexities, challenges, and threats we faced.  None.

There are those who would say we should have stayed indefinitely for years on end.  They ask, “Why don’t we just keep doing what we were doing?  Why did we have to change anything?” 

The fact is: Everything had changed.  My predecessor had made a deal with the Taliban.  When I came into office, we faced a deadline — May 1.  The Taliban onslaught was coming.

We faced one of two choices: Follow the agreement of the previous administration and extend it to have — or extend to more time for people to get out; or send in thousands of more troops and escalate the war.

To those asking for a third decade of war in Afghanistan, I ask: What is the vital national interest?  In my view, we only have one: to make sure Afghanistan can never be used again to launch an attack on our homeland.

Remember why we went to Afghanistan in the first place?  Because we were attacked by Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda on September 11th, 2001, and they were based in Afghanistan.

We delivered justice to bin Laden on May 2nd, 2011 — over a decade ago.  Al Qaeda was decimated.

I respectfully suggest you ask yourself this question: If we had been attacked on September 11, 2001, from Yemen instead of Afghanistan, would we have ever gone to war in Afghanistan — even though the Taliban controlled Afghanistan in 2001?  I believe the honest answer is “no.”  That’s because we had no vital national interest in Afghanistan other than to prevent an attack on America’s homeland and their fr- — our friends.  And that’s true today.

We succeeded in what we set out to do in Afghanistan over a decade ago.  Then we stayed for another decade.  It was time to end this war. 

This is a new world.  The terror threat has metastasized across the world, well beyond Afghanistan.  We face threats from al-Shabaab in Somalia; al Qaeda affiliates in Syria and the Arabian Peninsula; and ISIS attempting to create a caliphate in Syria and Iraq, and establishing affiliates across Africa and Asia. 

The fundamental obligation of a President, in my opinion, is to defend and protect America — not against threats of 2001, but against the threats of 2021 and tomorrow. 

That is the guiding principle behind my decisions about Afghanistan.  I simply do not believe that the safety and security of America is enhanced by continuing to deploy thousands of American troops and spending billions of dollars a year in Afghanistan. 

But I also know that the threat from terrorism continues in its pernicious and evil nature.  But it’s changed, expanded to other countries.  Our strategy has to change too.

We will maintain the fight against terrorism in Afghanistan and other countries.  We just don’t need to fight a ground war to do it.  We have what’s called over-the-horizon capabilities, which means we can strike terrorists and targets without American boots on the ground — or very few, if needed.

We’ve shown that capacity just in the last week.  We struck ISIS-K remotely, days after they murdered 13 of our servicemembers and dozens of innocent Afghans. 

And to ISIS-K: We are not done with you yet. 

As Commander-in-Chief, I firmly believe the best path to guard our safety and our security lies in a tough, unforgiving, targeted, precise strategy that goes after terror where it is today, not where it was two decades ago.  That’s what’s in our national interest. 

And here’s a critical thing to understand: The world is changing.  We’re engaged in a serious competition with China.  We’re dealing with the challenges on multiple fronts with Russia.  We’re confronted with cyberattacks and nuclear proliferation. 

We have to shore up America’s competitive[ness] to meet these new challenges in the competition for the 21st century.  And we can do both: fight terrorism and take on new threats that are here now and will continue to be here in the future. 

And there’s nothing China or Russia would rather have, would want more in this competition than the United States to be bogged down another decade in Afghanistan.

As we turn the page on the foreign policy that has guided our nat- — our nation the last two decades, we’ve got to learn from our mistakes.

To me, there are two that are paramount.  First, we must set missions with clear, achievable goals — not ones we’ll never reach.  And second, we must stay clearly focused on the fundamental national security interest of the United States of America.

This decision about Afghanistan is not just about Afghanistan.  It’s about ending an era of major military operations to remake other countries. 

We saw a mission of counterterrorism in Afghanistan — getting the terrorists and stopping attacks — morph into a counterinsurgency, nation building — trying to create a democratic, cohesive, and unified Afghanistan -– something that has never been done over the many centuries of Afghans’ [Afghanistan’s] history. 

Moving on from that mindset and those kind of large-scale troop deployments will make us stronger and more effective and safer at home. 

And for anyone who gets the wrong idea, let me say it clearly.  To those who wish America harm, to those that engage in terrorism against us and our allies, know this: The United States will never rest.  We will not forgive.  We will not forget.  We will hunt you down to the ends of the Earth, and we will — you will pay the ultimate price.

And let me be clear: We will continue to support the Afghan people through diplomacy, international influence, and humanitarian aid.  We’ll continue to push for regional diplomacy and engagement to prevent violence and instability.  We’ll continue to speak out for basic rights of the Afghan people, especially women and girls, as we speak out for women and girls all around the globe.  And I’ve been clear that human rights will be the center of our foreign policy. 

But the way to do that is not through endless military deployments, but through diplomacy, economic tools, and rallying the rest of the world for support.

My fellow Americans, the war in Afghanistan is now over.  I’m the fourth President who has faced the issue of whether and when to end this war.  When I was running for President, I made a commitment to the American people that I would end this war.  And today, I’ve honored that commitment.  It was time to be honest with the American people again.  We no longer had a clear purpose in an open-ended mission in Afghanistan. 

After 20 years of war in Afghanistan, I refused to send another generation of America’s sons and daughters to fight a war that should have ended long ago. 

After more than $2 trillion spent in Afghanistan — a cost that researchers at Brown University estimated would be over $300 million a day for 20 years in Afghanistan — for two decades — yes, the American people should hear this: $300 million a day for two decades.

If you take the number of $1 trillion, as many say, that’s still $150 million a day for two decades.  And what have we lost as a consequence in terms of opportunities?  I refused to continue in a war that was no longer in the service of the vital national interest of our people. 

And most of all, after 800,000 Americans serving in Afghanistan — I’ve traveled that whole country — brave and honorable service; after 20,744 American servicemen and women injured, and the loss of 2,461 American personnel, including 13 lives lost just this week, I refused to open another decade of warfare in Afghanistan. 

We’ve been a nation too long at war.  If you’re 20 years old today, you have never known an America at peace. 

So, when I hear that we could’ve, should’ve continued the so-called low-grade effort in Afghanistan, at low risk to our service members, at low cost, I don’t think enough people understand how much we have asked of the 1 percent of this country who put that uniform on, who are willing to put their lives on the line in defense of our nation. 

Maybe it’s because my deceased son, Beau, served in Iraq for a full year, before that.  Well, maybe it’s because of what I’ve seen over the years as senator, vice president, and president traveling these countries.

A lot of our veterans and their families have gone through hell — deployment after deployment, months and years away from their families; missed birthdays, anniversaries; empty chairs at holidays; financial struggles; divorces; loss of limbs; traumatic brain injury; posttraumatic stress. 

We see it in the struggles many have when they come home.  We see it in the strain on their families and caregivers.  We see it in the strain of their families when they’re not there.  We see it in the grief borne by their survivors.  The cost of war they will carry with them their whole lives.

Most tragically, we see it in the shocking and stunning statistic that should give pause to anyone who thinks war can ever be low-grade, low-risk, or low-cost: 18 veterans, on average, who die by suicide every single day in America — not in a far-off place, but right here in America. 

There’s nothing low-grade or low-risk or low-cost about any war.  It’s time to end the war in Afghanistan. 

As we close 20 years of war and strife and pain and sacrifice, it’s time to look to the future, not the past — to a future that’s safer, to a future that’s more secure, to a future that honors those who served and all those who gave what President Lincoln called their “last full measure of devotion.”

I give you my word: With all of my heart, I believe this is the right decision, a wise decision, and the best decision for America.

President Biden Stood Up To His Critics And Ended The War

 

It has been obvious for over a decade that the war in Afghanistan was not winnable, and the corrupt government we installed there could not survive once we left.

But three presidents ignored that fact and continued the war -- even increasing the number of troops we had in that country.

President Biden is different. He understood the realities of the situation, and he had the political courage to withdraw our troops and end the war -- and he did it in spite of substantial criticism from powerful interests.

We owe President Biden a debt of gratitude!

The following is much of an op-ed at MSNBC.com by Mehdi Hasan:

I never expected Biden to be anything other than belligerent once he was seated inside the White House Situation Room.

Yet as of Tuesday evening, Biden has done something that three previous presidents either wouldn’t or couldn’t: ended the longest war in American history. The last U.S. troops left Afghanistan on schedule and ahead of the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.

But Biden has also done something that no other president has managed to do in living memory: He has stood up to the generals.

In 2017, Donald Trump’s first year in office, the new Republican president’s instinct was to wind down the war in Afghanistan, but his national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, pressured him to send more troops. McMaster reportedly presented Trump “with a black-and-white snapshot from 1972 of Afghan women in miniskirts walking through Kabul, to show him that Western norms had existed there before and could return.”

It worked. Trump, who before entering the White House had called the war a “total disaster” and said the U.S. “should leave Afghanistan immediately,” agreed to escalate troop levels.

In 2009, Barack Obama’s first year in office, the new Democratic president debated with his advisers whether to “surge” troops into Afghanistan. On one side, Obama had a bevy of military leaders — Adm. Mike McMullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Army Gen. David Petraeus, the head of Central Command; and Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan — urging him to escalate.

On the other side, Obama had Vice President Biden, who, according to Obama’s memoir, viewed the conflict as a “dangerous quagmire.” On one occasion during the discussions about a surge, Obamarecalls, Biden grabbed him by the arm and said, “Maybe I’ve been around this town for too long, but one thing I know is when these generals are trying to box in a new president.” He leaned into Obama’s face and whispered, “Don’t let them jam you.”

Less than three months later, Obama signed off on sending 30,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan.

Fast-forward to 2021, Joe Biden’s first year in office. The new Democratic president could have easily ditched the February 2020 agreement the Trump administration signed with the Taliban in Qatar to withdraw all U.S. forces from Afghanistan this year. He could have listened to his top military advisers, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, a retired general, and Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, both of whom reportedly urged him to keep a small force of 2,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

But Biden didn’t let them “jam” him. In April, he ignored the entreaties of his top generals and announced that all U.S. troops would be leaving Afghanistan ahead of Sept. 11, 2021. Since the Aug. 15 fall of the Afghan capital to the Taliban and the chaos in and around the Kabul airport, a chorus of hawkish generals, journalists, pundits, comedians, Afghans, Republicans and even Democrats has lambasted Biden for his handling of the pullout and for sticking to his Aug. 31 pullout date. His approval rating has taken a hit, and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., wants to impeach him.

Yet Biden didn’t budge. Lest we forget, it’s shamefully easy for presidents to start wars and much, much harder to end them. Biden’s decision to withdraw now is not, as his critics say, “an indelible stain on his presidency” or a “cowardly betrayal” or a sign of “weakness.” It is perhaps the boldest foreign policy move by a president in my lifetime. . . .

It is worth pointing out that more than 100,000 people were evacuated from Afghanistan since the middle of August, including the vast majority of U.S. citizens who had wanted to leave the country. That milestone came in the wake of claims that Biden was abandoning our Afghan allies and suggestions that evacuating even 50,000 people would be impossible. . . .

President Joe Biden didn’t lose this war. It was lost in October 2001, when President George W. Bush refused to accept the Taliban’s offer to hand over Osama bin Laden to a neutral third country, and in December 2001, when then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld refused to accept Taliban surrender terms.

It was lost as U.S. politicians, diplomats and generals, as the Afghanistan Papers revealed, “failed to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan ... making rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable.”. . .

America’s longest war is over. . .To borrow a line from the president himself, it’s a “BFD.”

Most Say leaving Afghanistan Will Not Increase Terrorism

The chart above is from a new Ipsos Poll. It was done on August 27th and 28th of a national sample of 513 adults, and has a 4.9 point margin of error. 

Some Republican officials are trying to scare Americans by claiming that the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan will increase the terrorist threat to the United States. They seem to forget that it was a Republican (Trump) who negotiated the withdrawal with the Taliban. 

The public does not agree with them. Only 36% say it will make the U.S. less safe from terrorism. About 63% say it will not (with 56% saying it will make no difference and 7% saying it will make the U.S. safer).

I understand the thinking of that 7%. If U.S. troops were withdrawn from all muslim countries, it would remove the main excuse for the muslim terrorists to attack the U.S. 

But personally, I agree with the 56%. It will neither increase nor decrease the terrorist threat to this country.

The Taliban just wants to be left alone to run Afghanistan. They know that inviting terrorists to set up camps in their country will just invite more attacks from the United States (from manned and unmanned flights at the very least). They are having enough trouble setting up a workable government without any further interference from the West.

Attack Didn't Change Public Opinion About Withdrawal

 

Poll after poll has shown that a significant majority of Americans believed it was right for the United States to withdraw all its troops from Afghanistan. Then came the attacks in Kabul that killed 13 U.S. troops (and over a hundred Afghans wanting to leave). Did the attack change the public's opinion about withdrawal?

No! Registered voters (47% to 38%), Democrats (69% to 16%), and Independents (47% to 33%) still agree the withdrawal of our troops is the right thing to do. Only Republicans (17% to 72%) disagree.

I suspect the Republicans disagree just because a Democratic president is the one actually overseeing the withdrawal. They didn't seem to mind when Trump negotiated the withdrawal with the Taliban (or when he released over 5,000 Taliban prisoners).

The chart above is from the YouGov Poll -- done on August 26th of a national sample of 1,200 registered voters, and has a 3.8 point margin of error.

Biden Is Keeping His Promise - But Some Will Still Complain

President Biden is keeping his promise to evacuate Americans and our Afghan friends from that country. Over 83,000 have been evacuated, and many more will be evacuated before operations cease. But if you listen to the media, you might think the evacuation was a failure. It is NOT. But however many are evacuated, there are going to be some (especially on the right) who will not be happy with the results. Those people would not be happy if a million people were evacuated!

Here is part of Jennifer Rubin's take on the situation in The Washington Post:

Now that the number of evacuated Americans and at-risk Afghans has cleared 87,000 since the end of July (the vast majority of which are Afghans), the media’s premature declaration of “failure” looks off-base. Indeed, the coverage has tended to ignore or minimize the achievements of U.S. military and State Department personnel, which have exceeded any previous noncombatant evacuation operation. It becomes more difficult to argue that the United States has “abandoned” Afghans, given that we are moving heaven and earth to extract tens of thousands of them.

But don’t expect the media to rethink its excessively gloomy verdict. Instead, get ready for the post-Aug. 31 coverage that will point to every stray American (even those who failed to reply to State Department messages). Moreover, we will be told of the plight of many Afghans left behind as evidence that President Biden didn’t keep his promise to get Americans and Afghan partners out. . . .

 The New York Times reports that “the Biden administration had identified about 50,000 special visa applicants, and their families, to be evacuated.” However, thousands more could qualify under the special immigrant visa (SIV) program or be considered “at high risk of being targeted by the Taliban — former Afghan security forces, government officials, journalists, judges and prosecutors, and women rights advocates among them.”. . .

No one ever envisioned airlifting hundreds of thousands of people in such a short timeframe before the Afghan government collapsed. This was a challenge with the Trump administration’s May 1 deadline and by Biden’s agreement to leave by Aug. 31. But the problem of the left behind would have existed even if the deadline was Oct. 1 or Dec. 1. It’s simply not possible to remove a significant portion of the population after having lost the war.

We could get all of the known SIV applicants, plus thousands of at-risk Afghans, and still leave many vulnerable Afghans behind. In one sense, every girl and woman might face a threat of persecution. But evacuating tens of millions of people is unimaginable.

Meanwhile, MAGA folks will be turning themselves inside out to argue that the United States left too many Afghans behind while also complaining that it is taking too many in. Fevered hatred of Biden will collide with their xenophobia.

The administration can and should continue to attempt rescue operations after Aug. 31. But some perspective is in order: The herculean effort could end up evacuating tens of thousands or even 100,000 Afghans and still fall far short of rescuing all at-risk Afghans. Yet this cannot be considered neglectful or hardhearted, because the pool of vulnerable Afghans is virtually limitless. . . .

In sum, the commitment to remove Americans and SIV recipients who worked directly with the United States and its allies was never intended to rescue large swaths of the population. When the United States accomplishes something difficult — exceptional even — and acts with kindness, humanity and decency, it should be acknowledged, even if its performance falls short of perfection. Subsequent drafts of history must provide context, perspective and moral discernment.

Public Supports Withdrawal But Thinks It Has Gone Badly

The charts above are from the CBS News / YouGov Poll -- done between August 18th and 20th of a national sample of 2,142 U.S. adults, with a 2.3 point margin of error.

U.S. Public Fears Domestic Terrorists More Than Foreign

Republicans still want Americans to believe that the greatest threat of terrorism comes from foreigners (especially muslims). This is probably because most domestic terrorists are right-wingers, and support the Republican Party (as long as those Republican officials support Trump).

But the American public knows better. They know that the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security have said the biggest threat today comes from domestic terrorists. This was shown again just a couple of days ago, when a right-wing terrorists threatened to blow up the Library of Congress.

Note in the chart above that all groups (all adults, Democrats, Independents, and even Republicans) have a bigger fear of home-grown domestic terrorists over foreign terrorists.

The charts are from the latest AP-NORC Poll -- done between August 12th and 16th of a nationwide sample of 1,729 adults, with a 3.2 point margin of error.

All four groups also said the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq were not worth fighting.

The Lessons We Should Learn From The War In Afghanistan

 It has been said that if we don't learn from history, then we are doomed to repeat it. The catastrophe in Afghanistan shows that we did not learn from our mistakes in Vietnam.

The Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction has released a report on Afghanistan. You can read the full report at this website.

In the report, the Inspector General lists seven lessons our government needs to learn from our time in Afghanistan. Those lessons are listed in the graphic above.

Will our government take these lessons to heart and learn from them? Probably not! We didn't learn from our time in Vietnam, and it is unlikely that we'll learn fro our time in Afghanistan.

Our politicians are not worried about repeating mistakes from the past. They only care about protecting their own political careers, and as soon as it's popular to engage in another unwindable war, they'll discard these lessons -- and we'll repeat the past again.

Public Support For Afghanistan Withdrawal Drops Sharply

 

The chart above is from the Politico / Morning Consult Poll -- done between August 13th and 16th of a national sample of 1,999 registered voters, with a 2 point margin of error.

It shows that the current mess in Afghanistan (caused by the faster than expected Taliban takeover) has caused a significant drop in public support for the withdrawal of troops from that country. 

In April, the support for withdrawal was 69%. That has now dropped to 49% -- a huge 20 point drop.

For Democrats the drop was 15 points. For Independents the drop was 25 points. And for Republicans the drop was 21 points.

I disagree with those who have changed their minds. Keeping our troops there longer would not have accomplished anything. It would have just delayed it, and cost more lives -- with the outcome remaining the same.

Transcript Of President Biden's 8/16 Speech On Afghanistan

President Biden made the decision to remove all of our troops from Afghanistan. It was the right decision. Leaving troops there would not have improved the situation. It would have just caused the deaths of more soldiers (and Afghan citizens) without accomplishing anything.

But the withdrawal turned out to be a mess. Obviously the Biden administration, and out military leaders, did not properly plan for that withdrawal. Their lack of proper planning was likely due to misjudging how long it would take the Taliban to take over the country. It was much faster than anticipated, but that possibility should have been considered.

The only saving grace is that the Biden administration and our military leaders are now aggressively acting to get Americans, foreign workers, and our Afghan allies out. They have sent a few thousand troops to protect the airport, and are removing between 5,000 and 9,000 individuals a day -- with the operation expected to last until August 31st.

On Monday (8/16/21), President Biden spoke to the nation about the situation in Afghanistan. Here is the transcript of that speech (from The New York Times):

I want to speak today to the unfolding situation in Afghanistan, the developments that have taken place in the last week and the steps we’re taking to address the rapidly evolving events.

My national security team and I have been closely monitoring the situation on the ground in Afghanistan and moving quickly to execute the plans we had put in place to respond to every contingency, including the rapid collapse we’re seeing now.

I’ll speak more in a moment about the specific steps we’re taking. But I want to remind everyone how we got here and what America’s interests are in Afghanistan.

We went to Afghanistan almost 20 years ago with clear goals: get those who attacked us on Sept. 11, 2001, and make sure Al Qaeda could not use Afghanistan as a base from which to attack us again. We did that. We severely degraded Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. We never gave up the hunt for Osama bin Laden and we got him.

That was a decade ago. Our mission in Afghanistan was never supposed to have been nation-building. It was never supposed to be creating a unified, centralized democracy. Our only vital national interest in Afghanistan remains today what it has always been: preventing a terrorist attack on American homeland.

I’ve argued for many years that our mission should be narrowly focused on counterterrorism, not counterinsurgency or nation-building. That’s why I opposed the surge when it was proposed in 2009 when I was vice president. And that’s why as president I’m adamant we focus on the threats we face today, in 2021, not yesterday’s threats.

Today a terrorist threat has metastasized well beyond Afghanistan. Al Shabab in Somalia, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Al Nusra in Syria, ISIS attempting to create a caliphate in Syria and Iraq and establishing affiliates in multiple countries in Africa and Asia. These threats warrant our attention and our resources. We conduct effective counterterrorism missions against terrorist groups in multiple countries where we don’t have permanent military presence. If necessary, we’ll do the same in Afghanistan. We’ve developed counterterrorism over-the-horizon capability that will allow us to keep our eyes firmly fixed on the direct threats to the United States in the region, and act quickly and decisively if needed.

When I came into office, I inherited a deal that President Trump negotiated with the Taliban. Under his agreement, U.S. forces would be out of Afghanistan by May 1, 2021, just a little over three months after I took office. U.S. forces had already drawn down during the Trump administration from roughly 15,500 American forces to 2,500 troops in country. And the Taliban was at its strongest militarily since 2001.

The choice I had to make as your president was either to follow through on that agreement or be prepared to go back to fighting the Taliban in the middle of the spring fighting season. There would have been no cease-fire after May 1. There was no agreement protecting our forces after May 1. There was no status quo of stability without American casualties after May 1. There was only the cold reality of either following through on the agreement to withdraw our forces or escalating the conflict and sending thousands more American troops back into combat in Afghanistan, and lurching into the third decade of conflict.

I stand squarely behind my decision. After 20 years, I’ve learned the hard way that there was never a good time to withdraw U.S. forces. That’s why we’re still there. We were cleareyed about the risks. We planned for every contingency. But I always promised the American people that I will be straight with you.

The truth is, this did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated. So what’s happened? Afghanistan political leaders gave up and fled the country. The Afghan military collapsed, sometimes without trying to fight. If anything, the developments of the past week reinforced that ending U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan now was the right decision.

American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves. We spent over a trillion dollars. We trained and equipped an Afghan military force of some 300,000 strong. Incredibly well equipped. A force larger in size than the militaries of many of our NATO allies. We gave them every tool they could need. We paid their salaries, provided for the maintenance of their air force, something the Taliban doesn’t have. Taliban does not have an air force. We provided close air support. We gave them every chance to determine their own future. What we could not provide them was the will to fight for that future.

There are some very brave and capable Afghan special forces units and soldiers. But if Afghanistan is unable to mount any real resistance to the Taliban now, there is no chance that one year — one more year, five more years or 20 more years — that U.S. military boots on the ground would have made any difference.

Here’s what I believe to my core: It is wrong to order American troops to step up when Afghanistan’s own armed forces would not. The political leaders of Afghanistan were unable to come together for the good of their people, unable to negotiate for the future of their country when the chips were down. They would never have done so while U.S. troops remained in Afghanistan bearing the brunt of the fighting for them. And our true strategic competitors, China and Russia, would love nothing more than the United States to continue to funnel billions of dollars in resources and attention into stabilizing Afghanistan indefinitely.

When I hosted President Ghani and Chairman Abdullah at the White House in June, and again when I spoke by phone to Ghani in July, we had very frank conversations. We talked about how Afghanistan should prepare to fight their civil wars after the U.S. military departed. To clean up the corruption in government so the government could function for the Afghan people. We talked extensively about the need for Afghan leaders to unite politically. They failed to do any of that. I also urged them to engage in diplomacy, to seek a political settlement with the Taliban. This advice was flatly refused. Mr. Ghani insisted the Afghan forces would fight, but obviously he was wrong.

So I’m left again to ask of those who argue that we should stay: How many more generations of America’s daughters and sons would you have me send to fight Afghanistan’s civil war when Afghan troops will not? How many more lives, American lives, is it worth, how many endless rows of headstones at Arlington National Cemetery? I’m clear on my answer: I will not repeat the mistakes we’ve made in the past. The mistake of staying and fighting indefinitely in a conflict that is not in the national interest of the United States, of doubling down on a civil war in a foreign country, of attempting to remake a country through the endless military deployments of U.S. forces. Those are the mistakes we cannot continue to repeat because we have significant vital interest in the world that we cannot afford to ignore.

I also want to acknowledge how painful this is to so many of us. The scenes that we’re seeing in Afghanistan, they’re gut-wrenching, particularly for our veterans, our diplomats, humanitarian workers — for anyone who has spent time on the ground working to support the Afghan people. For those who have lost loved ones in Afghanistan, and for Americans who have fought and served our country in Afghanistan, this is deeply, deeply personal. It is for me as well.

I’ve worked on these issues as long as anyone. I’ve been throughout Afghanistan during this war, while the war was going on, from Kabul to Kandahar, to the Kunar Valley. I’ve traveled there on four different occasions. I’ve met with the people. I’ve spoken with the leaders. I spent time with our troops, and I came to understand firsthand what was and was not possible in Afghanistan. So now we’re focused on what is possible.

We will continue to support the Afghan people. We will lead with our diplomacy, our international influence and our humanitarian aid. We’ll continue to push for regional diplomacy and engagement to prevent violence and instability. We’ll continue to speak out for the basic rights of the Afghan people, of women and girls, just as we speak out all over the world.

I’ve been clear, the human rights must be the center of our foreign policy, not the periphery. But the way to do it is not through endless military deployments. It’s with our diplomacy, our economic tools and rallying the world to join us.

Let me lay out the current mission in Afghanistan: I was asked to authorize, and I did, 6,000 U.S. troops to deploy to Afghanistan for the purpose of assisting in the departure of U.S. and allied civilian personnel from Afghanistan, and to evacuate our Afghan allies and vulnerable Afghans to safety outside of Afghanistan. Our troops are working to secure the airfield and ensure continued operation on both the civilian and military flights. We’re taking over air traffic control. We have safely shut down our embassy and transferred our diplomats. Our diplomatic presence is now consolidated at the airport as well.

Over the coming days we intend to transport out thousands of American citizens who have been living and working in Afghanistan. We’ll also continue to support the safe departure of civilian personnel — the civilian personnel of our allies who are still serving in Afghanistan. Operation Allies Refuge, which I announced back in July, has already moved 2,000 Afghans who are eligible for special immigration visas and their families to the United States. In the coming days, the U.S. military will provide assistance to move more S.I.V.-eligible Afghans and their families out of Afghanistan.

We’re also expanding refugee access to cover other vulnerable Afghans who work for our embassy. U.S. nongovernmental organizations and Afghans who otherwise are a great risk in U.S. news agencies — I know there are concerns about why we did not begin evacuating Afghan civilians sooner. Part of the answer is some of the Afghans did not want to leave earlier, still hopeful for their country. And part of it because the Afghan government and its supporters discouraged us from organizing a mass exodus to avoid triggering, as they said, a crisis of confidence.

American troops are performing this mission as professionally and as effectively as they always do. But it is not without risks. As we carry out this departure, we have made it clear to the Taliban: If they attack our personnel or disrupt our operation, the U.S. presence will be swift, and the response will be swift and forceful. We will defend our people with devastating force if necessary. Our current military mission is short on time, limited in scope and focused in its objectives: Get our people and our allies as safely and quickly as possible. And once we have completed this mission, we will conclude our military withdrawal. We will end America’s longest war after 20 long years of bloodshed.

The events we’re seeing now are sadly proof that no amount of military force would ever deliver a stable, united, secure Afghanistan, as known in history as the graveyard of empires. What’s happening now could just as easily happen five years ago or 15 years in the future. We have to be honest, our mission in Afghanistan made many missteps over the past two decades.

I’m now the fourth American president to preside over war in Afghanistan. Two Democrats and two Republicans. I will not pass this responsibility on to a fifth president. I will not mislead the American people by claiming that just a little more time in Afghanistan will make all the difference. Nor will I shrink from my share of responsibility for where we are today and how we must move forward from here. I am president of the United States of America, and the buck stops with me.

I’m deeply saddened by the facts we now face. But I do not regret my decision to end America’s war-fighting in Afghanistan and maintain a laser focus on our counterterrorism mission, there and other parts of the world. Our mission to degrade the terrorist threat of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and kill Osama bin Laden was a success. Our decades-long effort to overcome centuries of history and permanently change and remake Afghanistan was not, and I wrote and believed it never could be.

I cannot and will not ask our troops to fight on endlessly in another country’s civil war, taking casualties, suffering life-shattering injuries, leaving families broken by grief and loss. This is not in our national security interest. It is not what the American people want. It is not what our troops who have sacrificed so much over the past two decades deserve. I made a commitment to the American people when I ran for president that I would bring America’s military involvement in Afghanistan to an end. While it’s been hard and messy and, yes, far from perfect, I’ve honored that commitment.

More importantly, I made a commitment to the brave men and women who serve this nation that I wasn’t going to ask them to continue to risk their lives in a military action that should’ve ended long ago. Our leaders did that in Vietnam when I got here as a young man. I will not do it in Afghanistan.

I know my decision will be criticized. But I would rather take all that criticism than pass this decision on to another president of the United States, yet another one, a fifth one. Because it’s the right one, it’s the right decision for our people. The right one for our brave service members who risked their lives serving our nation. And it’s the right one for America.

Thank you. May God protect our troops, our diplomats and all brave Americans serving in harm’s way.